Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)

Early Warning for Disaster Preparedness and Response in Bangladesh

DROUGHT RIVER EROSION

FLOOD CYCLONE

FIRE BREAKOUT

EARTHQUAKE

SALINITY INTRUSION

LANDSLIDE

BANGLADESH DISASTER CONTEXT

Context analysis:

• Bangladesh, mostly by the virtue of its geophysical features, is a disaster prone country which coupled with the global climate change poses a major threat for its residents and their livelihoods.

• Natural disasters have been a major problem faced by the country. • In the year 1988 or more recently the cyclone SIDR which affected almost nine

million people. • The geographical location is the main reason behind the different types and

frequency of the disasters; especially the natural features make it prone to

cyclones, tornadoes and storm surges.

• Bangladesh has three main rivers flowing through which forms the largest delta in the world, these rivers are the Ganges, the Meghna and the Brahmaputra (GMB). The delta has flat territory with many other rivers flowing through it, which along with the above three rivers bring a vast amount of water and sediments .

• This process of carrying sediments has been taking place since the Miocene age and this in turn helped in the growth of the Bangladesh .

Context analysis: continue

• Bangladesh is seismically active also because of the presence of quite a few major and minor faults near the country .

• In the last 100 years (that is since 1900) as many as 100 earthquakes, ranging from moderate to high, has been reported in Bangladesh .

• There are two joining points of two plates that is found in Bangladesh- in the north is the Eurasia plate and the Indian plate; and in the eastern part of the country lies the joining point of the Indian and Barmiz plate .

• These areas are the geographic reason for the susceptibility of earthquake in Bangladesh as near these areas there are some active fault zones . The country is divided into three seismic zones where the third zone has the most risk of seismic activity and zone-1 has the least .

• Moreover there are some seismic fault lines that pass through or near Bangladesh and pose a threat of possible earthquake in the country; some of these are- Bogra fault, Sylhet fault, Dauki fault, Kopili fault and Jamuna fault

DROUGHT - Affects about 8.3 million of land.

COUNTRY PROFILE

FLASH FLOOD - Unpredictable, uncertain.

FLOOD - Inundates more areas, increases river erosion, breaches

embankments, damages infrastructures.

CYCLONE - Remain to be the deadliest and most destructive

hazard. It has recurring events, lingering aftermath, complex

recovery.

Ranks globally among the most climate vulnerable nations

Fifth rank in the world risk index 2012

SALINITY INTRUSION - Spreading intrusion from 1.5 to 2.5 Mha

(2007). Projected displacement: 6-8 m by 2050

AND

CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS, EARTHQUAKES, FIRE

BREAKOUT, INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE ETC.

BANGLADESH SHIFTED THE PARADIGM FROM RESPONSE/RELIEF-ORIENTED TO COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH AND RISK REDUCTION CULTURE SINCE MID 1980’S

Bangladesh is a

flood prone

country because

of its typical

geographical

location and

being placed in

the delta formed

by the Ganges,

the Brahmaputra

and the Meghna

rivers

Bangladesh Setting

Common Hazards/Disasters in Bangladesh

1. Flood, Flash Flood 2. Cyclone 3. Storm surge, Tidal surge 4. Tornado 5. Drought and desertification 6. River erosion 7. Earthquake 8. Arsenic Contamination 9. Pollution 10. Salinity 11. Water logging 12. Biological – Bird flue, Viral Polio,

Diarrhoea, Anthrax, Bacterial, water and airborne

13. Animal attacks 14. Pest attacks

15. Cold wave 16. Heat wave 17. Fog 18. Thunder storms 19. Lightening 20. Road, river and rail accident 21. Landslide 22. Land subsidence 23. Dust storm 24. Tsunami 25. Social conflict (riot, terrorism,

hijack, bombs) 26. Cyber attack 27. Financial crisis 28. Famine

CONTEXT OF VULNERABILITY

Complex geo-physical and environmental diversity

• Deltaic landscape, 80% floodplain

• Most density populated country (over 146 million)

• High level of poverty (31.5%, HIES 2010)

• Natural resources based

• Victim to global Climate Change, most vulnerable country

Well established indigenous coping capacities

Strong sense of belonging and social cohesion

Vibrant NGO /CSOs/CBOs

GO-NGO/public–private partnership

Strong support from the development partners

Extensive safety nets

UN

FAV

OU

RA

BLE

FA

VO

UR

AB

LE

EVOLUTION OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH

70’s Response oriented disaster management: • 1970 Gorkey Cyclone, 300,000 people killed •1972 Cyclone preparedness program established

80’s – 90’s Emerging DM approaches: • 1987 -88 huge flood, FAP formulated •1991 cyclone, 138000 people killed, shifting from disaster response to preparedness •1993 constitution of Disaster Management Bureau •1997 Drafting of standing order on disasters (SOD) •1998 prolonged flood

2000 + Forward towards a comprehensive system including Risk Reduction •2000 Comprehensive Disaster Management program formulated and launched in 2004 •2005 Ministry of Food and Disaster Management renamed with new DM vision • 2006 Revised AoB for MOFDM •2010 Revised SOD, National Plan for Disaster Management • DM Policy and ACT drafted

EARLY WARNING INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM

AND CDMP SUPPORT

Indian Meghalaya Hill, world’s wettest region

Annual Rainfall: 12,000 mm = 12 meters!!

BMD, CDMP-II

CDMP-II Supported Projects for BMD

SI No.

Project Name Project Duration with

Cost Status

1 "Strengtheining of Bangladesh meteorological Department's (BMD) Early Warning Capacity"

Duration: 2011-2014,

Budget: 8,50,000 USD

2 Development and Pilot of Weather Radio System for Warning Dissemination to Fishermen at Sea"

Duration: 1 Year,

Budget: 4,25,977.2 USD (32864141 BDT)

• Mou Signed between CDMP-II & BMD has been done

• Sub-agreement between BMD & RIMES has been done

• Sites selection have been done

3 Enhancement and Pilot Application of Agro-Advisory Expert System – Bangladesh

Duration: 1.5 years

Budget: 3,49,743 USD

Climate Database Management system CDMS Server

Participants receiving training on GIS system View of Training room

Digital weather massage display board Main gate of BMD

Vew of training Class Training participants

7. Automatic Communication System at 35 outer stations through

EADGE Modem.

8. High speed internet connection installed BMD head quarter (HQ),

Storm Warning Center (SWC) and Main Meteorological Office

(MMO), Hazrat Shah Jalal International Airport, Dhaka.

9. Up grading of H/W and Procurement & Distribution to Outer

Observatory Stations Completed.

Procurement (second Phase) & Distribution of Computer, UPS,

Printer, Cartridge, TV, Modem, Pen drive and other accessories

Completed.

What is Flood Forecasting, Warning and

Response System?

• A system to change the behaviour of people and

agencies before and during floods to save lives,

and reduce damage and disruption

• A system with the following integrated

components :

- Forecasting

- Interpretation

- Dissemination

- Response

- Review and Analysis

WATER

is great

opportunity

for

Bangladesh

and also threat to living condition and development

27

India

RIVERS OF BANGLADESH

Brahmaputra/Jamuna

Ganges

Meghna

Qmaxm. =78,000 m3/sec

Qminm. = 700 m3/sec

WLmax.=15.19m

WLmin.=7.44m

Qmax.=98,000m3/sec

Qmin. =4,000 m3/sec

WLmax.=20.37m

WLmin.=12.95m

(Lower Meghna

Qmaxm. =180,000 m3/sec

Qminm. = 4,000 m3/sec

WLmax.=7.33m

WLmin.=1.97m

primarily a rain

fed river

snow melt & rain fed river

starts rising in March/April

& usually attains a peak in

June. Another peak in

July/August

snow melt & rain fed river

starts rising in June/July

and attains the annual

flood peak in late August

or early September

Cherapunji (in INDIA) Worlds highest rainfall

Annual Average Rainfall: 2300

mm

Intensity is least in the North

West : about 1500

mm

Intensity is highest in North

East : about 5000 mm

Monsoon (May to October)

rainfall accumulation 70

to 80 % of the annual

With huge population, 150 million

(about 1100 person/sq-km)

Comparatively flat and

low topography

Bangladesh identified as the top

most vulnerable countries to

climate change condition

•About 50% of the country is

within 6-7 m of MSL.

•Max 68% of the country is

flooded in 1998.

•25 to 30% of the area is

inundated during normal flood

Total population - country descending form left to right

Types of Flooding

Monsoon floods from the major rivers

• Overbank spills from major rivers and their

distributaries cause the most extensive damages

Floods due to storm surge in the coastal area

• Generated by cyclones cause floods in coastal zones

Flash floods in the eastern and northern areas

• Sharp rise followed by a rapid recession

Local floods due to high intensity rainfalls

• High rainfall of long duration

32

Flooded Area during 1954 to 2013

UN mission, known as

Krug Mission fielded

EPWAPDA Started with

projects to save CROPS

BWDB formed

FFWC established

1998 is the

most sever

flood

Flood (or water) Management Approaches

Structural

Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation projects

Coastal embankment

Dredging/de-siltation to increase conveyance

Riverbank Protection

Accelerated Land Reclamation

Salinity protection

Surface water retention (including rain water)

Non-structural

Flood and drought forecasting and Warning

Erosion Prediction (planned)

Hydrological data collection and survey

Capacity development

Completed BWDB Structures: up to June, 2013

• Projects Completed: 751 Nos

• Total Embankment: 10, 405 km

• Coastal Embankment: 4,571 Km

• Other Embankment: 5,834 Km

• Irrigation Canal : 5,175 Km

• Drainage Channel : 4,245 Km

• Hydraulic Structure: 14,287 Nos

• Barrage : 4 Nos

• Bridge and Culvert : 5,630 Nos

• Road (incl. semi-pacca): 1,041 Km

• Bank Revetment : 622 Km

• Spur/Groyene : 220 Nos 1961-1970

1951-1960

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2010

With all these interventions

85 million PEOPLE and 15

million HOUSEHOLDS are

protected from average floods

and salinity from sea

Food grain production from

Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation

(FCDI) system of the BWDB

Overall trend is increasing

Thus contribute to;

• maintain FOOD SECURITY

• create JOB specially the rural population

• poverty reduction

Non Structural Measures

Flood Forecasting and Warning

Services

06:00 to 09:00 hrs 08:30 to 10:30 hrs 10:30 to 11:00 hrs 11:00 to 12:00 hrs 11:30 to --------

Field Observation

Water Level

Rainfall

Other Sources

BMD

Satellite image

Web-site

Indian data

Model

Run

FFWC

Office

Flood

Inundation

Map

Feed to

computer

Analysis

& Quality

check

Flood

Bulletin

Preparation

Dissemination

Through

Hard copy

E-mail

Fax

Phone

Web-site

SMS

IVR-mobile

Distributed to

Policy makers

Disaster

managers (GO

& NGO)

Media

Others

Rainfall

Surface

Map

Result

consistency

check

Data Collection Preparation Dissemination Output

Flood Forecasting & Warning Activities

Error

check

Water Level

from 85

stations

85x5=425

Rainfall 56

stations, daily

basis

Data collection and feed to

computer MANUAL

Model based Flood

Forecast

1992

Super Model 1996

Expansion of area

coverage

2009

Strengthening of

FFWC with CDMP-

II support

2012

FFWC established 1972

Monitoring & few

hours forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5

1987-88 two big FLOODS

1998 & 2007 two big FLOODS

Flood Forecasting & Warning Step by Step

Lead time in days

16

points

1-day

30 points

2-days

38 points on 21 rivers

3-days

54 points on 29 rivers

5-days

38 Flood Forecast points

River Station

Atrai Mohadevpur

Atrai

Little Jamuna Noagaon

Karatoya Chakrahimpur

Bogra

Teesta Kaunia

Brahmaputra Chilmari

Jamuna

Bahadurabad

Kazipur

Serajgonj

Porabari

Aricha

Old

Brahmaputra

Jamalpur

Mymensingh

Bangshi Nayerhat

Dhaleswari Jagir

Kalagacia

Kaliganga Taraghat

Tongi Khal Tongi

River Station

Turag Mirpur

Buriganga Dhaka(South)

Dhaka(West)

Balu Demra

Lakhya Narayangonj

Ganges

Rajshahi

Harding Bridge

Talbaria

Padma

Goallondo

Bhagyakul

Mawa

Gorai

Gorai Rl

Bridge

Kamarkhali

Surma

Sylhet

Sunamgonj

Kushyara Sheola

Meghna

Bhairab Bazar

Baidder Bazar

Meghna Bridge

Flood Forecast points 16 nos

is being added in 2013 & 2014

River Station River Station

Jamuna

Sariakandi Dharala Kurigram

Porabari Lakhya Lakhpur

Mathura Meghna Narsingdi

Baulai Khaliajuri Mohanonda C.Nwabgonj

Old Surma Derai Ghagot Gaibandha

Kalni Markuli Atrai Cankhair

Manu Moulvibazar Hurasagar Baghabari

Dhaleswari Elasin Ghat Padma Sureswar

21 rivers 38 stations

Upto 2012

29 rivers 54 stations

After 2014

Indian Data

WMO

JRC

WARPO

FFW C R adio Tower

FFWC Satellite dish

24, 48, 72 hr

forecasts

water level

flood extent

maps

thana

inundation

maps

Telephone

Fax

Fax Modem

ModemTelevision

Bulletine

GIS data layers

Radio

wireless com

munication

via modem

manual entry

Telemetry/D

ata box / Voice SPARRSO

Sattelite images

BMD

Weather forecast

Synoptic charts

Boundary estimation

Rainfal,

Water level

Data Entry & Processing Modelling & Mapping

River stage

Rainfall

R

e

a

l

T

i

m

e D a t a

Dissemination

to the public

Dissemination

to various agencies

Internet

Flood Forecasting Process in Bangladesh

Community based signaling –CDMP I

Effective use of

Existing Radar Data

Collection System

New Doppler Radar in

Moulvibazar (JICA

fund)

Covers most part of

Meghna basin

Calibration of RADAR

against ground measured

data is needed

Digital form of data

What are the new areas can be covered?

Community Level Flood Forecasting

Increase of Lead-time for effective planning of Flood

and Disaster Management

- Evacuation and/or Flood Cooping Operation

- Operation of Key and Valuable Infrastructure,

- Operation of Transportation System (Road/Rly/Ferry)

- Earlier Harvest of Crops

- Social and Economic Activities

Flash Flood Forecasting for North East Region

Extend the Flood Forecasting in the SW Region

Expert system for atomization of FFC System

Recommendations • Data collection System needs to be updated(intensity, frequency,

mode of collection & transmission)

• Arrangement of additional further upstream data ( rainfall, water

level and channel configuration ) for increased lead time of forecast

• For realistic flood inundation map high resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and GIS at local levels are very much essential

• Dissemination and understanding of warning message needs further attention

• Quantitative rainfall forecasts can make flash flood forecasts effective

• Timely dissemination of warnings to end users can be achieved through internet net work up to Upazilla level

Cont.

COMMUNITY BASED

EARLY WARNING

DISSEMINATION

Cyclone Preparedness Program(CPP)

was established after the severe cyclonic storm

that happened in 1970 by the then League of Red

Cross & Red Crescent Society With the request of

UN general assembly.

League of Red Cross & Red Crescent Society

decided to withdraw the field level programme and

communicated with request to the Government to

take the responsibility of CPP In 1973.

Realizing the importance and as it is the

responsibility of Government to save the peoples’

and their wealth in the coastal area during disaster.

Government took the responsibility of CPP by a

meeting held on 4th may 1973 & the decision of the

meeting was approved.

Unit-

3300

Present Structure of CPP-: Officers & Staffs : 203, Total Volunteer : 49500, Male :33000, Female :16500, Unit : 3300, Union : 321, Upazila : 37, Zone : 07

CPP Head

Office

Dhaka

Zonal office, District level , No-07

Upazila Office, Upazila Level, No-

37

Union Office, Union Level, No-321

2-sq.-km,

2-3

Thousand

People

Village / Ward

Unit Committee-

15

Warning

Group-3

Shelter

Group-3

Rescue

Group-3

First aid

Group-3

Relief

Group-3

Warning Volunteer (M)

Addi. Warning Volunteer (M)

Addi. Warning Volunteer (F)

Shelter Volunteer (M)

Addi. Shelter Volunteer (M)

Addi. Shelter Volunteer (F)

Rescue Volunteer (M)

Addi. Rescue Volunteer (M)

Addi. Rescue Volunteer (F)

First aid Volunteer (M)

Addi. First aid Volunteer (M)

Addi. First aid Volunteer (F)

Relief Volunteer (M)

Addi. Relief Volunteer (M)

Addi. Relief Volunteer (F)

FFWC

BMD ≠ 64 DISTRICTS AND

310 UPAZILLA

≠ 13 GOVERNMENT

AGENCIES

≠ NGO

≠ INGO

Cell Broadcasting System

DIAL 10941 FROM

MOBILE except citycel & Warid

Searching

Disaster

Information

WEATHER

SEA PORT

FLOOD WARNING

1

2

3

PRESS BUTTON Volunteers

HF/VHF

Community

DMIC Activity

Mobile Technology Used in DRR

Cyclone “Test-1” land fall

Chittagong-Teknaf coast.

DMCs in these area are

instructed to send SoS

within 24 hours and “D”

form within 72 hours

Cell Broadcasting (CB) Piloting of early warning dissemination in

flood prone Sirajganj and cyclone prone

Cox’s Bazar through Cell Broadcasting (CB)

has been Successful.

SMS SMS service to disseminate disaster

early warning during and after disaster

instruction will be circulated to officials

of relevant disaster management.

A

B

C

IVR (Interactive Voice Response) Initiative have been taken to weather, flood

forecasting and early warning for river port

through IVR. The Service is available through

all mobile subscribers. IVR Hot Line -

10941

Products/Services

Software – ArcGIS/ ENVI

Databases – Different layers including administrative boundaries, River, Sea,

School, shelter etc.

Administrative District Map Upazila/Union/ Natural (River)

Hazard Map – Flood, Cyclone, Salinity, Response Map

GIS Setup

Tools Used for mapping

Community are in action after receive

the early warning

THANKS ALL