Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Part 1
Transcript of Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Part 1
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Part 1: Conflict Early Warning and Early Response
Joseph G. Bock
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The goal of the network is to…mitigate violence stimulated by electoral politics and underlying social issues –
• Before, during and after the 2020 elections. • We anticipate collaborating for 6 months
altogether.• However, we will be working towards a
sustainable initiative that will endure into the future beyond 6 months.
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Outline
Background information
Varieties of Early Warning and Early Response Systems
An important question we need to
ask
Roles
Ethical imperatives
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Background Information
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How it works...The core group includes national and international conflict-management organizations with decades of combined experience.The group is clear that...
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Three key principles...
(1) Violence mitigation and problem-solving are robust only when local organizations are involved.
(2) Data-gathering and inter-network communication are useful only when networks of trustworthy people are in place.
(3) Getting the right information to the right people in the right format, in a timely manner, is key, and requies clear protocols.
The group is clear that...
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The Trust Network is a non-partisan group of local, national and international experts in early warning early response mechanisms.
This includes groups with expertise in:• Information & Communication Technologies (ICTs)• Conflict transformation, mediation, de-escalation, cohesion
building, facilitated dialogues, restorative justice & violence mitigation.
A Non-Partisan Network
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Mediators Beyond Borders International (MBBI) based in Washington DC, is serving as convener and organizational host.
The National Association for Community Mediation (NAFCM), is taking the lead field monitoring and early response.
Election Incident Reporting USA, is handling the Information and Communication Technologies for conflict early warning.
Collaborations
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Members of the Election Incident
Reporting USA team...
…have years of experience in both election monitoring and disaster response.
Some of them have been active members of the International Network of Crisis Mappers.
Others have been heavily involved with the Standby Task Force.
The elections or disasters to which they responded have been in: Kenya, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India, The Philippines, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, Ecuador, Libya, and Syria.
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MediatorsBEYOND BORDERS INTERNATIONAL
Partners
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Mitigating and Preventing Violence
Structurally Operationally
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Example of a fire suppression system…
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IT IS NOT A QUESTION OF WHETHER STRUCTURAL PREVENTION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TACTICAL PREVENTION. We need both!
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The objectives of Conflict Early Warning and Early Response
To prevent violence from happening so it does not cause a conflagration of violence
To stop the transmission of violence…to keep it from spreading
To prevent a recurrence of violence
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Analytical FrameworkDerived from Donald Horowitz’s The Deadly Ethnic Riot (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001), with additions from Alexandra Scacco, Who Riots? Explaining Individual Participation in Ethnic Violence (PhD Dissertation, Columbia University, 2010); and a comment by John Paul Lederach in Mindanao, The Philippines
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Sequence of Building a Consensus to Harm
Typical
Precipitating event
Consensus building
Violence
Atypical
1. Consensus building
2. Precipitating event
3. Violence
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VARIETIES OF EARLY WARNING AND EARLY RESPONSE SYSTEMS
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Low-tech
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Case Study
The Harmony Project of the St. Xavier’s Social Service Society Ahmedabad, Gujarat India
Or Chapter 10 in Do No Harm
Cure Violence Case Study
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Higher-tech
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Example of Mathematical Pattern Recognition: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Analysis
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Case Study of Higher Tech Approach
Foundation for Co-ExistenceChapter 5
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A different type of high tech: using digital mapping for visualization (potentially with a deterrent effect)Ushahidi
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Flow Chart of
our Conflict
Early Warning and Early Response
System
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AN IMPORTANT QUESTION WE NEED TO ASK
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How much time…How early is early?
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Findings from Sri Lanka
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Roles of People Near Conflict
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Roles
• Field Monitors—Go to locations of tension and reports observations. Anyone with a mobile phone can do this.
• Intervenors—Intervene in tense situations to de-escalate tensions. Not everyone can do this, only those trained in mediation and violence interruption can.
• Communicators—Work with a local network of people to spread information about what is happening and dispels rumors. Anyone connected to or part of a local network can do this using a mobile phone, tablet or computer.
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What will be your role?
Training for field monitors and intervenors will be…• Part 2 - Wednesday Oct 28 - 4:30 pm - 6:00 pm EDT.
Register here.• Part 2 - Thursday Oct 29 - 11:00 am - 12:30 pm EDT.
Register here.https://mediatorsbeyondborders.org/trust/resources/
Cure Violence Training—also for intervenorsOctober 29 -- https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_aC8oDAlPRa6xecPCC4Rb1A
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Ethical Imperatives
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Ethical imperative #1: Ensure that the risk of communicating information relevant to early warning is less than the likelihood of and the benefit of preventing violence.
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Ethical imperative #2: Verify data but don’t wait too long to issue a warning…otherwise the warning will be useless.
Certainty
Utility
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Ethical imperative #3: Don’t allow fascination with technology to result in neglect of building and supporting local capacity for early response.
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Ethical imperative #4: In cases of non-violent political struggle, an early warning and early response capacity should be created to mitigate the impact of troublemakers (sometimes called “spoilers”).
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Ethical imperative #5:Emphasize that there are times when the best option is to leave and to ask others to do the same.
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Some of My Best Teachers--Foundation for Co-Existence(especially the two leaders Madhawa Palihapitiya and Dinidu Endaragalle)
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WHAT IS YOUR “ELEVATOR PITCH”?
What in the world is conflict early warning and early response?
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MY “ELEVATOR PITCH”It is an initiative designed to mitigate violence by using technology and social media to enhance our ability to identify rising tensions in time to warn local organizations that it is time to intervene before violence erupts.
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QUESTIONS/DISCUSSION
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MediatorsBEYOND BORDERS INTERNATIONAL
THE TRUST NETWORKCreating connections across communities
Conveners