Currency Daily Report, May 21 2013

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Currencies Daily ReporTuesday| May 21, 201

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst

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(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130

Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst

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Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

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Overview:

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ghlights

US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trade.

ndian Rupee fell to lowest level in last two and half month.

Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session.

ian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that

Federal Reserve may ends its bond buying program soon in near

rm. Further, Bank of Japan can also declare stimulus measures also

erted downside pressure on the markets.

S Dollar Index

e US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.6 percent in the yesterday’s

ading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market

ntiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for

e low yielding currency.

owever, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of pectations that US Federal Reserve will end its bond buying program

on. Further, weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in the

X. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.8 and closed at 83.84

Monday.

ollar/INR

e Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading

ssion. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from

ld and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak global and domestic

arket sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

rther, negative outlook for the country by the Standard and Poor

ting agency acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee

owever, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of

eakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 55.135

d closed at 55.03 against dollar on Monday.

r the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.12,950.90 crores

2,382.97 million) as on 20th

May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

lows stood at Rs.73,987.30 crores ($13,693.30 million) till 20th

May

13.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate

the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in

e DX. Additionally, dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers

ll also exert downside pressure in the currency.

Market Highlights (% change) as on May 20, 2013

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 6156.9 -0.5 3.0 5.5

SENSEX 20224.0 -0.3 2.7 5.5

DJIA 15335.28 -0.1 1.6 4.2

S&P 1666.3 -0.1 2.0 7.1

FTSE 17506.9 -0.6 2.0 6.2

KOSPI 1982.4 -0.2 1.7 4.0

BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 7.4 6.6

NIKKEI 15360.8 1.5 -0.1 13.5

Nymex Crude

(May13) - $/bbl

96.71 0.7 1.6 8.4

Comex Gold

(June’13) - $/oz

1384.30 1.4 -2.8 -1.7

Comex

Silver(May’13) $/oz

2256.80 0.0 -3.4 -1.1

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7388.50 1.1 -0.1 -5.8

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

102.09 0.0 -1.5 -0.4

Source: R

US Dollar (% change) as on May 20

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 83.84 -0.6 0.6 1.2

US $ / INR (Spot) 55.03 -0.3 -0.4 -1.5

US $ / INR May’13

Futures (NSE)

55.19 0.40 0.60 2.15

US $ / INR May’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

55.19 0.42 0.62 2.15

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for May 21, 2013

Trend Support Resi

US Dollar/INR May’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 55.05/54.9 55.





Euro (% change) as on May 20, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.2882 0.3 -0.7 -1.4

Euro / INR (Spot) 70.76 0.0 0.6 -0.1

Euro / INR May ’13

Futures (NSE)

71.0 0.34 -0.29 0.61

Euro / INR May’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

70.0 -1.07 -1.68 -0.81

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on May 20, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5254 0.56 -0.3 -0.2

GBP / INR (Spot) 84.109 1.018 0.21 1.89

GBP / INR

May’13 Futures

(NSE)

83.90 0.13 -0.44 1.72

GBP / INR May

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

83.91 0.13 -0.41 1.74

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of

eak Dollar index. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped on

he back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with worries over

conomic growth of the country.

he Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2901 and closed at 1.2882

gainst dollar on Monday.

utlook

today’s session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in

sk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with the strength

DX. Further, expectation of weak economic data from Germany may

dd downside pressure on the Euro.

echnical Outlook valid for May 21, 2013Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR May’13

SE/MCX-SX)Up 70.8/70.6 71.1/71.3

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.56 percent in yesterday’s trade on

he back of weak DX. Further, UK Home sellers raised prices which also

upported currency as it added optimism that Britain’s economy is

mproving. However, mixed global market sentiments capped sharp

pside in the sterling pound.

he Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.528 and closed at

5254 against dollar on Monday.

utlook

We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of

xpectation of favorable economic data from the country. However

rength in Dollar Index coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global

arket sentiments may cap sharp upside in the currency.

echnical Outlook valid for May 21, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

BP/INR May ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Up 83.6/83.3 84/84.2




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JPY (% change) as on May 20, 2013

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 102.26 -0.9 0.4 3.1

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.5394 1.41 0.00 -1.95 -2

JPY 100 / INR May’13

Futures (NSE)

53.90 0.31 -0.29 -1.96 -2

JPY 100 / INR May’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

53.90 0.29 -0.27 -1.96 -2

Source:

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.9 percent in yesterday’s trading

ssion on the back of weak global market sentiments which led to rise in

mand for the low yielding currency.

e Yen touched an intra-day high of 102.16 and closed at 102.26 against

lar on Monday.

tlook

r the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from

e in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to

rease in demand for the low yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for May 21, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

/INR May ’13E/MCX-SX)

Sideways 53.65/53.35 54.05/54.3

conomic Indicators to be released on May 21, 2013

ndicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

erman PPI m/m Europe 11:30am - -0.1% -0.2% Medium

PI y/y UK 2:00pm - 2.6% 2.8% High

PI Input m/m UK 2:00pm - -1.2% -0.1% Medium

PI y/y UK 2:00pm - 3.1% 3.3% Medium

reasury Sec Lew Speaks US 7:30pm - - - Medium

OMC Member Bullard Speaks US 9:00pm - - - Medium

Currency Daily Report, May 21 2013

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