Content 

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Research Team

Reena Rohit

Chief Manager

Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies

Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134

Anish Vyas

Research Analyst

anish.vyas@angelbroking.com

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Overview:

Curre

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mbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

79838 / Member ID: 10500

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cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013 

www.angelbroking.com 

s not warrant its accuracy, completeness and

oduced, distributed or published, in whole or in

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Highlights

•  US Unemployment Claims increased to 360,000 for

•  German WPI declined by 0.4 percent in the last mo

•  US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $116

Asian markets are trading higher today extending gai

trade on the back of statement from Fed regarding

stimulus measures.

US Unemployment Claims increased by 16,000 to 36

ending on 5th

July as against a rise of 344,000 in

Prices declined by 0.2 percent in June from earlier fa

May. Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $1

with respect to deficit of $138.7 billion a month ago.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined sharply around

yesterday’s trade on the back of statement fro

Chairman Ben Bernanke that central banks needs to

more favorable labor markets before tapering it

program.

Further, rise in risk sentiments in global markets also

pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-d

closed at 82.92 on Thursday.

Dollar/INR

The Indian Rupee appreciated in the initial par

yesterday’s trading session on the back of stateme

Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding continua

measures. This factor added downside pressure on

positive factor for Indian Rupee. Further, expe

measures to be taken by Reserve Bank of India (

upside in currency.

However, during the day currency depreciated on

demand from importers and oil firms which erased t

depreciation in the Rupee. The currency touched a

59.32 and closed at 59.82 on Thursday.

For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled a

($174.09 million) as on 11th

July 2013. Year to dat

inflows stood at Rs.73,201.20 crores ($13,674.90 m

2013.

Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect the Rupe

account of upbeat global and domestic markets cou

in the DX. Further, expectations of more measures to

its meeting with importers will support an upsid

However, expectations of decline in industrial

manufacturing data from country will cap sharp gains

Curre

w/e on 5th

July.

th.

.5 billion in June.

s from yesterday’s

continuation of its

0,000 for the week

rior week. Import

ll of 0.7 percent in

16.5 billion in June

1.6 percent in the

Federal Reserve

wait and watch for

s asset purchases

exerted downside

y low of 82.60 and

of the trade in

t from US Federal

ion of its stimulus

DX and acted as a

ctations of more

RBI) supported an

account of dollar

e gains and led to

intra-day high of 

Rs.1023.0 crores

basis, net capital

illion) till 11th

July

e to appreciate on

led with weakness

be taken by RBI in

in the currency.

production and

in the Rupee.

Market Highlights (% change) 

 

Last

NIFTY 5935.1

SENSEX 19676.1

DJIA 15460.92

S&P 1675.0

FTSE 15677.3

KOSPI 1877.6

BOVESPA 58497.8

NIKKEI 14472.6

Nymex Crude

(Aug’13) - $/bbl

104.91

Comex Gold

(Aug’13) - $/oz

1280.10

Comex

Silver(Sept’13)

$/oz

19.94

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7002.50

CRB Index

(Industrial)

-

G-Sec -10 yr

@7.8% - Yield

102.09

US Dollar (% change) 

Last

Dollar Index 82.92 -

US $ / INR (Spot) 59.82

US $ / INR July’13

Futures (NSE)

59.88 -

US $ / INR July’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

59.88 -

 

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Technical Outlook

US Dollar/INR July’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)

cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013 

www.angelbroking.com 

as on July 11, 2013

Prev.

dayWoW MoM YoY

2.0 1.7 4.1 11.0

2.0 1.4 4.5 7.6

1.1 3.2 1.9 22.7

1.4 3.7 3.0 24.9

0.0 -0.8 -3.2 13.1

2.9 2.1 -0.6 -6.4

0.2 29.9 18.6 9.5

0.4 -0.1 9.3 63.5

-1.5 3.6 8.5 22.3

2.7 2.2 -7.1 -18.9

0.0 6.5 -9.2 -26.5

3.0 1.1 -10.8 -7.5

- - - -

0.0 4.0 3.4 2.1

Source: Reuters

as on July 11, 2013 

rev.

dayWoW MoM YoY

 

1.6 -0.6 2.7 4.4

0.1 0.4 -3.2 -7.2

0.08 -0.98 2.24 7.67

0.13 -0.93 2.25 7.69

Source: Telequote

valid for July 12, 2013 

Trend Support Resistance

Sideways 59.60/59.40 60.10/60.30

 

 

Euro/INR

The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the yest

back of sharp fall in the DX. Further, upbeat

supported an upside in the currency.

The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3201 an

against the dollar on Thursday.

German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.

month. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase

June as against a rise of 0.1 percent a month ago.

Outlook

In today’s session, we expect the Euro to trade hi

upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX

upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in t

capped or reversal can be seen on account of for

industrial production data from the region.

Technical Outlook valid

Trend Sup

Euro/INR July’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Up 77.95/77

 

GBP/INR

The Sterling Pound appreciated more than 1.2 pe

trading session taking cues from weakness in the DX

appetite in the global markets supported an upside

Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5222

against dollar on Thursday.

Outlook

We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive

upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX

factor for the Pound.

Technical Outlook valid fo

Trend Suppo

GBP/INR July ’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 90.30/90.

 

Curre

Euro (% change) 

Last Prev

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3094

Euro / INR (Spot) 78.33

Euro / INR July

’13 Futures (NSE)

78.3

Euro / INR

July’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

78.2

Technical Chart – Euro

GBP (% change) 

Last Prev.

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5183 1

GBP / INR

(Spot)

90.782 0

GBP / INR

July’13 Futures

(NSE)

90.60 1

GBP / INR July

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

90.58 1

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

rday’s trade on the

lobal markets also

d closed at 1.3094

percent in the last

d by 0.2 percent in

her on the back of 

will also support an

he currency will be

ecast for decline in

or July 12, 2013

 

ort Resistance

.70 78.40/78.60

rcent in yesterday’s

. Further, rise in risk

in the currency. The

nd closed at 1.5183

note on the back of 

will act as a positive

r July 12, 2013

rt Resistance

0 90.70/90.90

cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013 

www.angelbroking.com 

as on July 11, 2013 

. day WoW MoM YoY

0.9 1.4 -2.1 7.0

-0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -13.2

1.80 -0.32 0.69 14.65

1.75 -0.36 0.62 14.63

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote 

as on July 11, 2013 

ay WoW MoM YoY

.15 0.7 -3.4 -2.1

.20 0.29 -0.53 5.24

.35 -0.64 -0.44 4.77

.29 -0.66 -0.45 4.79

Source: Reuters 

Source: Telequote 

 

 

JPY/INR

The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.7 percen

trading session on account of policy kept unchang

(BOJ). The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.86

against dollar on Thursday.

Outlook

For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap

from BOJ statement of keeping its policy steady.

appetite in the global markets, which could lead to f 

currency and cap sharp gains in the Yen.

Technical Outlook valid

Trend Supp

JPY/INR July ’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 60.20/6

 

Economic Indicators to be released on

Indicator Country

Industrial Production m/m Euro

PPI m/m US

Core PPI m/m US

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks US

Curre

JPY (% change) 

Last P

JPY / $ (Spot) 98.94

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.6052

JPY 100 / INR

July’13 Futures

(NSE)

60.34

JPY 100 / INR

July’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

60.34

Technical Chart – JPY

in the yesterday’s

d by Bank of Japan

and closed at 98.94

preciate, taking cues

owever, rise in risk

ll in demand for the

or July 12, 2013 

 

ort Resistance

0.0 60.55/60.70

uly 12, 2013

Time (IST) Actual Forecast

2:30pm - -0.2%

6:00pm - 0.5%

6:00pm - 0.2%

7:25pm - 85.3

10:30pm - -

cies Daily Report Friday| July 12, 2013 

www.angelbroking.com 

as on July 11, 2013 

rev day WoW MoM YoY

-0.7 -1.1 3.8 24.1

0.07 0.80 -0.21 -13.39

0.66 -0.41 0.04 -13.93

0.72 -0.40 0.06 -13.92

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote 

Previous Impact

0.4% Medium

0.5% High

0.1% Medium

84.1 High

- Medium