Currency Daily Report, April 10

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 Currencies Daily Report Wednesday| April 10, 2013 www.angelbroking.com  Content  Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any pu rpose without prior p ermission from “Ange l Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected] Research Team Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104 Overview:

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Content 

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

Angel Broking Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.

Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completene

correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in who

part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on  [email protected]

Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130

Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Overview:

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ghlights

German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.1 bn Euros in February.

Japan’s Prelim Machine Tool Orders fell by 21.6 percent in March.

UK’s Manufacturing Production increased by 0.8 percent in February. 

China’s trade balance was at deficit of $0.9 billion in March .

ian Markets are trading higher on the back of positive US stocksupled with rise in China’s import data.

ina’s trade balance was at deficit of $0.9 billion in March as compared

the surplus of $15.2 billion in February.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business

dex declined by 1.3 points to 89.5-mark in March as against a rise of 

.8-level in February. Wholesale Inventories declined by 0.3 percent in

bruary from rise of 0.8 percent in prior month.

S Dollar Index 

e US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.5 percent in the yesterday’s

ading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market

ntiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency.

rther, US equities traded on a positive note which also exerted

wnside pressure in the DX.

owever, sharp downside in the currency was capped on account of 

favorable economic data from Euro Zone. The currency touched an

ra-day low of 82.375 and closed at 82.41 on Tuesday.

ollar/INR

e Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading

ssion. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from

porters coupled with foreign outflows. Additionally, weak domestic

arket sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency.

owever, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of 

eakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.655

d closed at 54.47 against dollar on Tuesday.

r the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.412.40 crores

76.35 million) as on 9th

April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

lows stood at Rs.56,034.80 crores ($10,386.40 million) till 9th

April

13.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate

the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness

the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped on

count of dollar demand from importers along with outflow of foreign

nds from the financial institutions.

Market Highlights (% change)  as on April 9, 2013

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5495.1 -0.9 -4.4 -7.1

SENSEX 18226.5 -1.1 -4.3 -6.8

DJIA 14673.46 0.4 0.1 1.5

S&P 1568.6 0.4 -0.1 1.1

FTSE 15436.1 1.3 -0.8 -3.7

KOSPI 1920.7 0.1 -3.3 -4.0

BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 6.6 1.9

NIKKEI 13192.4 0.0 -0.1 5.0

Nymex Crude

(Apr13) - $/bbl

94.20 0.9 -3.1 1.8

Comex Gold (Apr’13)

- $/oz

1586.20 0.9 2.2 -0.1

Comex

Silver(Mar’13) $/oz

2786.60 2.8 2.4 -4.3

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7630.00 2.1 2.0 -2.8

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

102.09 0.0 1.1 0.4

Source:

US Dollar (% change)  as on April 9,

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 82.41 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2

US $ / INR (Spot) 54.47 0.2 -0.1 -0.6

US $ / INR April’13 

Futures (NSE)

54.76 -0.01 0.28 0.40

US $ / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

54.76 -0.01 0.27 0.39

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for April 10, 2013 

Trend Support Resi

US Dollar/INR April’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Down 54.60/54.45 54.90

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Euro (% change)  as on April 9, 2013 

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3081 0.6 2.1 0.4

Euro / INR (Spot) 71.10 -0.2 -1.8 -0.9

Euro / INR April ’13

Futures (NSE)

71.4 0.13 1.85 -0.20

Euro / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

71.4 0.11 1.87 -0.19

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change)  as on April 9, 2013 

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5321 0.45 1.5 2.8

GBP / INR (Spot) 83.623 0.424 1.70 3.11

GBP / INR

April’13 Futures

(NSE)

83.73 -0.05 1.02 2.07

GBP / INR April

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

83.74 -0.05 1.03 2.08

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of 

ptimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX.

owever, sharp gains in the euro were capped due to unfavorable

conomic data from Europe.

erman Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.1 billion Euros in Februarys against earlier surplus of 15.6 billion Euros a month ago. French Gov

udget Balance was at deficit of 27.1 billion Euros in February from

revious deficit of 12.8 billion Euros a month earlier. French Trade

alance was at a deficit of 6 billion in February as compared to deficit of 

7 billion in prior month. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3103

nd closed at 1.3081 against dollar on Tuesday.

utlook

today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of 

ptimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX.

urther, expectation of positive French Industrial production data may

upport euro to trade in green.

echnical Outlook valid for April 10, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR April’13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 71.20/70.95 71.60/71.80

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.45 percent in yesterday’s trade on he back of favorable economic data from UK coupled with optimistic

obal market sentiments. Further, weakness in DX supported currency

o gain strength.

K’s Manufacturing Production increased by 0.8 percent in February as

gainst a decline of 1.9 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a

eficit of 9.4 billion Pounds in February from earlier deficit of 8.2 billion

ounds a month earlier. Industrial Production rose by 1 percent in

ebruary from decline of 1.3 percent in previous month. The Sterling

ound touched an intra-day high of 1.5341 and closed at 1.5321 against

ollar on Tuesday.

utlook

We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of 

ptimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX.

urther, positive economic data in yesterday’s trading session will

upport the currency to gain strength.

echnical Outlook valid for April 10, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

BP/INR April ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 83.40/83.05 84.0/84.30

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JPY (% change)  as on April 9, 2013 

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 99.02 -0.3 6.0 3.1

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.5514 0.38 -5.42 -2.56 -1

JPY 100 / INR April’13

Futures (NSE)

55.42 -0.27 -5.27 -2.87 -1

JPY 100 / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

55.42 -0.28 -5.29 -2.90 -1

Source:

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s trading

sion on the back of favorable economic data from the country.

wever, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in

k appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in

mand for the low yielding currency.

pan’s Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined by 21.6 percent in March

m previous fall of 21.5 percent in February. Bank Lending increased by

6 percent in last month as against a rise of 1.5 percent in February. The

n touched an intra-day high of 98.58 and closed at 99.02 against dollar

Tuesday.

tlook

r the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk

petite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in

mand for the low yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for April 10, 2013 

Trend Support Resistance

/INR April ’13

E/MCX-SX)Down 55.10/54.80 55.60/55.90

Economic Indicators to be released on April 10, 2013

ndicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

rade Balance China 7:30am -0.9B 15.2B 15.3B High

ew Loans China 10th

-13th

- 890B 620B Medium

rench Industrial Production m/m Europe 12:15pm - 0.6% -1.2% Medium

rude Oil Inventories US 8:00pm - 1.6M 2.7M Medium

0-y Bond Auction US 10:30pm - - 2.03/3.2 Medium

OMC Meeting Minutes US 11:30pm - - - High

ederal Budget Balance US 11:30pm - -110.3B -203.5B Medium