Currency Daily Report, February 15

7/29/2019 Currency Daily Report, February 15

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Currencies Daily RepoFriday| February 15, 201

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Fundamental Team

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Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

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Overview:

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Highlights

US Unemployment Claims declined to 341,000 for w/e on 8th Feb.

European Flash GDP declined to 0.6 percent in Q4 of 2012.

India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 6.62 percent in Jan.

German Prelim GDP declined by 0.6 percent in last quarter of 2012.

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of less profit

arnings from the Australian and Japanese corporate companies.

US Unemployment Claims declined by 27,000 to 341,000 for the week

nding on 8th

February as against a rise of 368,000 in prior week.

ndia's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 6.62 percent in January

rom earlier rise of 7.18 percent in December. Food Price Index was up

y 11.88 percent in last month as against a rise of 11.16 percent in

December. Fuel Price Index rose by 7.06 percent in January as

ompared to previous rise of 9.38 percent a month ago. Manufacturing

nflation was at 4.81 percent in January with respect to 5.04 percent in

December.

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday on account

f rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to

ncrease in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that,

nfavorable economic data from the Euro region also supported an

pside in the DX.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of US

nemployment claims data coming on a positive note. It touched an

ntra-day high of 80.71 and closed at 80.54 on Thursday.

Dollar/INR

he Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterday’s

rading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak

omestic market sentiments along with strength in the DX.

Additionally, dollar demand from oil companies also exerted downside

ressure on the currency.

However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of

ountry’s wholesale price index data coming on a favorable note. It

ouched an intra-day low of 54.02 and closed at 53.98 against dollar on

hursday.

or the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.20,538.70

rores ($3,854.53 million) as on 14th

February 2013. Year to date basis,

et capital inflows stood at Rs.42,597.70 crores ($7,913.90 million) till

4th

February 2013.

Outlook

rom the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate

n the back of dollar demand from oil companies coupled with weak

lobal market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency

will be capped as a result of weakness in the DX.

Market Highlights (% change) as on February 14, 2

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5897.0 -0.6 -0.7 -2.4

SENSEX 19497.2 -0.6 -0.4 -2.3

DJIA 13973.39 -0.1 0.2 2.8

S&P 1521.4 0.1 0.8 3.4

FTSE 16545.0 -1.0 0.9 -6.2

KOSPI 1979.6 0.2 2.5 0.3

BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 0.2 -5.3

NIKKEI 11307.3 0.5 -0.1 5.6

Nymex Crude

(Jan’13) - $/bbl

97.31 0.3 1.5 1.9

Comex Gold (Jan’13)

- $/oz

1634.70 -0.6 -1.9 -3.1

Comex Silver(Jan’13)

$/oz

3034.30 -1.7 -3.4 -4.9

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

8237.50 0.0 0.3 5.0

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

102.13 0.2 0.4 0.1

Source:

US Dollar (% change) as on February 14, 2

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 80.54 0.5 0.4 1.0

US $ / INR (Spot) 53.98 -0.3 -1.4 0.7

US $ / INR Feb’13

Futures (NSE)

54.03 0.10 1.16 -1.06

US $ / INR Feb’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

54.03 0.11 1.15 -1.06

Source:

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for February 15, 20

Trend Support Resis

US Dollar/INR Feb’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Up 53.85/53.70 54.10/





Euro (% change) as on February 14, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.336 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1

Euro / INR (Spot) 71.96 0.6 -0.5 0.4

Euro / INR Feb ’13

Futures (NSE)

71.96 -1.05 -0.70 -1.34

Euro / INR Feb’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

72.0 -1.06 -0.70 -1.33

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on February 14, 201

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5493 -0.31 -1.4 -3.1

GBP / INR (Spot) 83.528 -0.08 0.31 -5.27

GBP / INR Feb’13

Futures

(NSE)

83.74 -0.24 -0.24 -4.72

GBP / INR Feb

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

83.75 -0.22 -0.23 -4.71

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday on the back of French

relim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of

012 as against a rise of 0.1 percent in Q3 of 2012. German Prelim GDP

eclined by 0.6 percent in last quarter of 2012 from rise of 0.2 percent in

3 of 2012.

ench Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.2 percent in Q4 of 2012

s compared to earlier fall of 0.3 percent a quarter ago. Italian Prelim

DP fell by 0.9 percent in Q4 of 2012 with respect to drop of 0.2 percent

prior quarter. European Flash GDP declined to 0.6 percent in the last

uarter of 2012 from earlier plunge of 0.1 percent in Q3 of 2012.

dditionally, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market

entiments also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Euro

ouched an intra-day low of 1.3313 and closed at 1.336 against dollar on

hursday.

utlook

today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of European

nd Italian trade balance expected to come on a positive note. Apart

om that, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the

urrency.

echnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR Feb’13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 71.60/71.40 72.40/72.90

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues

om rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments.

dditionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the

urrency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5472 and

osed at 1.5493 against dollar on Thursday.

utlook

We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in today’sade on the back of retail sales data expected to come on a favorable

ote along with decline in the DX. However, weak global market

entiments will cap sharp gains in the currency.

echnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013


BP/INR Feb ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 83.55/83.30 83.90/84.10




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JPY (% change) as on February 14, 201

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 92.85 -0.6 -0.8 3.3

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.5802 0.54 2.24 -4.85 -8

JPY 100 / INR Feb’13

Futures (NSE)

58.07 0.64 1.94 -5.11 -8

JPY 100 / INR Feb’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

58.06 0.61 1.92 -5.12 -8

Source:

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading

ssion on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments

ich led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.

wever, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of country’s

P data coming on unfavorable note. The Yen touched an intra-day high92.65 and closed at 92.85 against dollar on Thursday.

tlook

r the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk

ersion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in

mand for the low yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013


/INR Feb ’13E/MCX-SX)

Sideways 57.60/57.30 58.20/58.50

Economic Indicators to be released on February 15, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Bank Holiday China All Day - - - -

Retail Sales m/m UK 3:00pm - 0.5% -0.1% High

Empire State Manufacturing Index US 7:00pm - -2.1 -7.8 Medium

TIC Long-Term Purchases US 7:30pm - 34.3B 52.3B Medium

Capacity Utilization Rate US 7:45pm - 78.9% 78.8% Medium

Industrial Production m/m US 7:45pm - 0.2% 0.3% Medium

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US 8:25pm - 74.8 71.3 High

Mortgage Delinquencies US 15t

– 19t

- - 7.40% Medium

G20 Meetings All Day 1 - - - High

Currency Daily Report, February 15

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