CIH North East Lunch & Learn Support/NE resources... · 2015-07-02 · CIH North East Lunch & Learn...
Transcript of CIH North East Lunch & Learn Support/NE resources... · 2015-07-02 · CIH North East Lunch & Learn...
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CIH North East Lunch & Learn
The context for Universal Credit
Brian Robson, Policy & Research Manager
@jrfbrian
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What we do
Deliver
services
Ifluence
social
change
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JRF’s housing & poverty work
Aims
– Explore relationship between housing and poverty
– Identify realistic and effective housing solutions for people living
in poverty in the UK
Three strands:
– New development framework for affordable housing
• Joint with NHF – led to Living Rents
– Housing and poverty over the life course
– Extreme housing exclusion
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Where are we now?
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Who is living in poverty?
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Who is living in poverty?
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Who is living in poverty? (2)
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Where do people in poverty live?
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Where do people in poverty live? (2)
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How has the labour market changed?
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How has the labour market changed?
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How has the labour market changed? Dynamism.
- 2.7 million moves between
inactivity, employment and
unemployment in first two
quarters of 2014
- Over a four year period, 38% of
low paid workers will experience a
period of unemployment
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How has the labour market changed? Polarisation.
20%
25%
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50%1
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professional or managerial semi-skilled low-skilled
Source: IFS slide pack for HMT Labour Market Conference October 2013
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What’s happened to incomes? They’ve fallen.
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Real term wages falling
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A note about costs
- Low income households spend
around ¼ of their income on food,
fuel and water
- CPI increased by c.20% in the five
years to 2014 – but food +30%
and fuel +60%
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So, where are we going?
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Poverty in 2020?
IFS Forecast:
• Fall in child poverty to be reversed
• Continued pressure on working age
non parents
Why?
• Tax and benefit reforms
– In particular CPI indexation
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Housing and poverty : the situation in 2040
• JRF commissioned modelling
• Quantitative longitudinal study –
avoids ‘snapshots’
• Examined 5,000 ‘housing pathways’
• Modelled against demographics,
house prices, etc
• Created forecast of housing and
poverty by 2040
jrf.org.uk/housing
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2040: housing cost projections
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2040: housing cost projections
• Real household income
+40%
• Private rents up 90% in
real terms
Social rents:
• Up 40% (if CPI + 1%)
• Up 160% if move to
affordable rents
continues
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2040: poverty projections
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2040: containing poverty?
• Possible, but means:
– CPI + 1% in social sector
– Housing benefit continues to meet
housing costs (£6.4bn extra)
– Housing supply reaches 200,000
units per year by 2040
– The proportion of social rented
housing does not decline
jrf.org.uk/housing
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2040: challenges for landlords
Focus on social mission clearly
separates social landlords from their
private sector counterparts…
But:
• Poverty rarely mentioned directly
• Who is affordable rent for?
• Who do social landlords prioritise?
• Tension over supply vs rent levels
jrf.org.uk/housing
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To conclude…
JRF strongly supportive of principles behind Universal Credit.
But …
• It can’t lower poverty on its own – need a comprehensive anti-poverty strategy
• Needs to be joined up with industrial and labour market policies
• Other welfare reforms not well-integrated – e.g. Benefit Cap, Council Tax Benefit
• Sanctions regime still too severe
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Thank you!
Brian Robson, Policy & Research Manager
01904 615 936
@jrfbrian