Business And Climate Change March 12 2009
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- 1. Business and Climate ChangeBirkbeck College, University of London, March 12 2009 Lecture to MSC Corp Gov and Ethics Class. Toby Webb, course lecturer [email_address]
2. Business and Climate ChangeThe future? 3. Business and Climate ChangeClimate change: The facts (well, some of them)
- Climate change is happening!
- It's definitely man-made, whatever else nature is doing
- Research shows accelerated warming since 1950
- Earliest rough measurements began around a century ago
- Some species: Costa Rican frogs, already extinct due to CC
- Pre-industrial levels were around 280 PPM in 1750 (guesswork extrapolated from 1850)
- Earth currently at 380-90 PPM CO2
- Top ten years in highest ever temperatures since 1990
4. Business and Climate ChangeExtreme weather is here to stay 5. Business and Climate Change
- If we stabilize at 400 PPM: 50/50 chance of2 Degreerise
- BUT only pollution (aerosols reflecting solar radiation) is keeping us below 400 PPM now!
- At 550 PPM there is a 50/50 chance of a3 Degreerise, (which could be 4.5-5 if wrong)
- Currently: Headed for2-3.5 degreerise in next fifty or so years
- This could rise to 5-12 degrees by 2099 (different temps in
- different areas, season and latitude dependent)
- IPCC says "peak carbon' date is2015= Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 vital as Kyoto set to expire!
6. Business and Climate ChangeExtinct in the wild soon? 7. Business and Climate Change
- Signs : Lowest ever recorded Arctic sea ice in 2008
- Some say summer sea ice (supports Polar Bears) may go inten years(IPCC had said 100 years!)
- Many earlier predictions on CC are now being brought forward, some changesaccelerating
- Feedback loops : Output from an event orphenomenonin the past influences the same event/phenomenon, increasing speed of change
- In 100 years: possibleone meterrise in sea levels world-wide: Huge rise in flooding, disease, migration
8. Business and Climate ChangeYour insurance will cost more 9. Business and Climate ChangeWhat will GHG's and global warming affect?
- Temperatures / Rain Pattern / Sea Levels / Glaciers (60,000 retreating) / Ice Caps / Sea Ice / Extreme Weather events
- By 2080 UK could be seeing up to4.5 degreerises in Summer months: Huge impact on agriculture, water, health
- Increased risk ofconflict : Bangladesh, climate refugees, Darfur, African agriculture, water shocks)
- Oceanacidification : impact on coral, fish stocks, sea biodiversity
- Agriculturewill be hugely affected: Tropics and poles see more rain. Semi arid areas will see less (Mediterranean)
- Globalbiodiversitywill change, species will die out, natural resources will be affected
10. Business and Climate ChangeTuvalu: Potential climate refugees 11. Business and Climate Change
- Goal should be to limit rise to2 degreesabove pre-industrial levels (1750, 280 PPM)
- Reality will be more like4 degree rise : Suggestions are: Mitigate for 2, prepare for 4
- OECD nations (the richest!) need to cut CO2 output by 80% by 2050
- UKonly country to have passed laws mandating this, BUT: Keep changing the targets: E.G. 26% by 2020, then 34% by 2020, then 42% by 2020
- 50% global reduction in CO2 needed by 2050 to aim for 2 degrees. Unlikely to happen!
- EUtarget is to cut emissions by 30% on 1990 levels by 2020 (Poland all coal!)
- IPCC 's budget is tiny! $30 million a year: whatGEspends on R&D every3 days !
Climate change: The predictions 12. Business and Climate ChangeKilimanjaro: Lot less snow and national parks 13. Business and Climate ChangeMcKinsey scenarios: 1)No change in policy= temp rise up to7 degrees/ 1-2 billion people overwhelmed / 4 bn people at risk RE water / total ice cap melt / Amazon may die 2)Dev nations lead the way,spend$350 bnper year by 2030 = sea levels rise / low level islands threatened / hunger increases slower than scenario 1 / Canada and Northern Europe become more productive / Major increase in extreme weather events 3)Global action , spend is$565 bnper year by 2030 = World warms only 2 degrees / hotter areas suffer on crop yields / some ice at poles remains / increase in bad weather and floods, but manageable / tropical disease spread is significant, but limited 14. Business and Climate ChangeBangladesh: Heading north? 15. Business and Climate ChangeThe future agenda: policy
- Need to valueecosystem services(forests, wetlands, mangroves, peat bogs, clean air etc)
- Externalitiesneed to be internalised (cost of running coal plant don't include pollution)
- Science and technology will be vitally important
- Tackling emissions fromagriculturev difficult area due to politics andtradedisputes!
- Voluntarismin environmental progress has not been seem to work. Solutions both regulatory, structural and incentive based
16. Business and Climate ChangeMaldives: Looking to move 17. Business and Climate Change
- Governance structuresare vital: OECD nations need to tighten up, developing nations must understand the challenge
- Technology transferto developing nations (China, India, Brazil etc) will be vital. IP disputes must be resolved
- Energy subsidies, structures of energy market and investment must be reviewed:Renewables growthneeds to be massive
- Other key areas: Coal use / Vehicles / Agriculture /Carbon capture and storage/ Forestry / Nuclear / Switching coal to gas
The future agenda: policy 18. Business and Climate ChangeEthiopia: Farming issues 19. Business and Climate ChangeThe future agenda:
- Electric vehiclesand electrified transportation systems: Toyota, Hybrids, plug in cars...
- Decarbonised electricity : power generating firms and CCS
- Decentralised power generation:renewables
- Big solar technology (concentrated solar power, mirror farms): big energy firms and start ups needserious incentives
- Improvementsto what we have: insulation, efficiency gains: British Gas, utility, DIY firms
- Biofuels : second generation (non food crops): BP, many others.. Shell's energy scenarios interesting. Search EthicalCorp.com for article
20. Business and Climate ChangeBusiness a big climate factor 21. Business and Climate ChangeThe future agenda:
- Carbon capture and storage has to play one of the biggest roles. BUT is still in infancy. Nothing coming online until at least2020
- Only test projects exist: Canada, Algeria, Norway, China, but technology mostly used to take out oil! Uses lots ofwaterandpower
- Dozen EUdemonstration projectsunder way in EU. RWE building power plant with CCS built in
- If CCS is problematic, or does not work -what then ?
- Sources: ClimateChangeCorp.com / Tyndall Center / Hadley Center / Professor Bob Watson, Chief Science Adviser, DEFRA, Head of Tyndall Center. March 10 2009
22. Business and Climate ChangeBiodiversity not just on land 23. Business and Climate ChangeThe future agenda: consumers
- Increased awarenessvital
- Concern about severelack of current awareness
- "Tragedy of the commons" worries: mutual 'destruction', the 'what can I do' attitude
- Governments, institutions, business needs to tackleapathy
- White goods labelling, carbon labelling, pricing incentives on flying, transport, energy sourcing, insulation
24. Business and Climate ChangeLarson B Ice Shelf: Melting fast 25. Business and Climate ChangeWhat companies are doing:
- Corporate sector directly responsible for at least40%of all greenhouse gas emissions
- Firms havestopped denyingclimate science! (BP in 1997, Exxon in 2008)
- Joint corporate statements urging for long term market based frameworks
- Companies such as: BP, BA, BT, Ford, HP, HSBC, Rio, Toyota signed up with CEOs.USCAPin US does similar work
- Companies said they wanted to make investments AND have investor surety on frameworks
- Lobby groups such as theCBIin UK urged action for several
- years, before every major summit
- Some US companies found to be members oflobby groupson different sides of the debate!(USCAP)
26. Business and Climate ChangeSunsets may get more spectacular 27. Business and Climate Change
- 2009 PWC CEO survey said that40% of CEOswere not concerned about CC
- 7% extremely concerned, while 42% were extremely concerned about economic downturn
- Suggestions ofclimate fatigueamong businesses in current economic climate
- Many big companies have done the ' easy wins ' on energy efficiency. Where next in recession?
- Aviation has beenin denial : 2% of emissions, 5-6% by 2050.
- Now industry says will use 10% alternative fuels by 2017
28. Business and Climate ChangeSea levels will rise 29. Business and Climate Change