Climate Change in the Kawarthas

March 2014Part 1

Nature in the Kawarthas is changing

The climate is warming: 2010 – 2014 – 40 out of 48 months warmer than 1971 – 2000 average (83%)Changes in dates of events in nature (e.g., leaf out)Changes in numbers and kinds of some species (e.g., opossum)More extreme events (March 2012) Tonight’s talk…• Will focus on events with likely or possible climate change connection• What we are seeing now• Extreme events of note• Concern for the future

2010 OMNR Report – Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditons for Ecoregions in Ontario Temperatures similar to s. Pennsylvania on the way

Kawarthas Kawarthas

Arrival of southern bird species

“Southern birds” have increased in number and have expanded their range northwards over recent decades

Mourning Dove – edge of Shield

Hooded Warbler

Northern Cardinal – Bancroft, Minden

Hooded Warbler – GanaraskaForest Red-bellied Woodpecker

The arrival of the Virginia Opossum Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are extending their range into the

Kawarthas

Johnston Dr. Ptbo – Feb. 2014

Gannon Narrows – December 2012

Flying squirrel hybridization • With warmer winters, Southern Flying Squirrels are moving north into the Kawarthas and some are mating with Northern Flying Squirrels, a different species

• Hybrid squirrels are becoming increasingly common

• Being explained as a possible effect of climate change

• akin to Polar Bears & Grizzlies mating ; also seen with Black-capped & Carolina chickadees

(Trent University/MNR study 2009)

Butterflies: Southerners on the march northward

Southern (Carolinian) species have expanded their range northwards over the last decade

Giant Swallowtail now common in Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme SW Ontario

Coldest winter temperature determines northern limit In years with long, hot summers, two broods of some species

Northern True Katydid (long-horned grasshopper) may be next southerner to arrive.

Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s biggest butterfly

Delaware Skipper

Northern True Katydid

Some short-distance migrants are, on average, returning earlier as spring becomes earlier

Common Merganser

American Robin

Great Blue Heron Hooded Merganser

Red-winged Blackbird

An earlier nesting season

Earlier springs are resulting in an earlier start to the nesting season for resident birds & short-distance migrants

May mean more more young

One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs up at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade Mourning Dove

An earlier spring frog chorus Spring Peeper

• Peak calling period of early breeders is now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995. Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study published in Herpetological Conservation and Biology, 2012)

Salamanders are mating earlier, too.

Chorus Frog

Earlier flowering of trees Alberta study: Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier

Red MapleCarolina Poplar

Speckled Alder

Silver Maple

Earlier spring wildflower bloom In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal

Coltsfoot

White Trillium

Hepatica

Wild Columbine

An earlier black fly emergence

Black flies are now in peak numbers in late April through early May

In the 1960s, peak numbers were not until mid- to late MayTraditionally, May 24th Weekend saw the worst black fly conditions

Earlier and more abundant tree pollen

With climate change, tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks earlier in the spring in much of North America.

Pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040.

Many people are experiencing more serious allergy symptoms .

A marked increase in invasive species

Purple Loosestrife Common Reed (Phragmites)

Dog-strangling Vine Garlic Mustard

An increase in tree disease

Butternut – canker (fungus) American Beech – beech scale (insect and fungus)

Ashes – Emerald Ash borer – milder winters may be allowing

faster expansion north