Climate Change and Business:Science, outlook, action, opportunities

Belgrade 19th March 2010

Toby Webb, Ethical Corporation

Toby.Webb@ethicalcorp.comwww.ethicalcorp.com

Is this the future?

Climate change: The facts

• Climate change is happening! Slowly, but may accelerate fast

• It's definitely man-made, whatever else nature is doing

• Research shows accelerated warming since 1950

• Pre-industrial levels were around 280 PPM in 1750 (guesswork extrapolated from 1850)

• Earth currently at 380-90 PPM CO2. Needs to be below 350ppm

• Top ten years (highest ever temperatures) since 1990

Extreme weather incidences are likely to increase

Climate change: The predictions

• If we stabilize at 400 PPM: 50/50 chance of 2 Degree rise

• BUT only pollution (aerosols reflecting solar radiation) is keeping us below 400 PPM now!

• At 550 PPM there is a 50/50 chance of a 3 Degree rise, (which could be 4.5-5 if wrong)

• Currently: Headed for 2-3.5 degree rise in next fifty or so years. Some think this could be higher

• This could rise to 5-12 degrees by 2099 (different temps in different areas, season and latitude dependent)

• IPCC says "peak carbon' date is 2015 = Post Copenhagen negotiations in 2010/12 vital!

Your insurance will cost more…

What will GHG's and global warming affect?

• Temperatures / Rain Pattern / Sea Levels / Glaciers (60,000 retreating) / Ice Caps / Sea Ice / Extreme Weather events

• By 2080 UK could be seeing up to 4.5 degree rises in Summer months: Huge impact on agriculture, water, health

• Increased risk of conflict: Bangladesh, climate refugees, Darfur, African agriculture, water shocks)

• Ocean acidification: impact on coral, fish stocks, sea biodiversity

• Agriculture will be hugely affected: Tropics and poles see more rain. Semi arid areas will see less (Mediterranean)

• Global biodiversity will change, species will die out, natural resources will be affected

• 50% global reduction in CO2 by 2050 for 2 degree rise

• Reality will be likely a 4 degree rise

• OECD nations (the richest!) need to cut CO2 output by 80% by 2050

• UK only country to have passed laws setting firm targets. 42% by 2020, 80% by 2050

• 2010 Copenhagen accord set aim of limiting global warming to maximum 2c over pre-industrial levels (280ppm) but not a binding treaty. Failure expected in Mexico, national/regional systems likely

• European Union target is to cut emissions by 20/30% on 1990 levels by 2020

Climate change: The predictions

McKinsey climate change scenarios:

• No change in policy = temp rise up to 7 degrees / 1-2 billion people overwhelmed / 4 billion people at risk / Floods and water shortages / Total ice cap melt / Amazon may die

• Developed nations lead the way, spend $350 bn per year by 2030 = sea levels rise / low level islands threatened / hunger increases slower than scenario 1 / Canada and Northern Europe become more productive / Major increase in extreme weather events

• Global action, spend is $565 bn per year by 2030 = World warms only 2 degrees / hotter areas suffer on crop yields / some ice at poles remains / increase in bad weather and floods, but manageable / tropical disease spread is significant, but limited

Climate refugees are guaranteed

Business impacts:

• Companies directly responsible for at least 40% of all global greenhouse gas emissions

• 2009 PWC CEO survey: 40% of CEOs were not concerned about climate change. 7% of CEO’s extremely concerned. 42% extremely concerned about economic downturn

• UN/Trucost study says if biggest companies held accountable for environmental costs, 1/3 of profits would be lost

• Total corporate environmental damage cost estimated at $2.2 trillion in 2008

• Three billion cars expected on the roads by 2050. Prius sales represent 6.4% of Toyota’s total annual sales in 2009

Business and Climate Change: The future agenda

• Electric vehicles and electrified transportation systems: Toyota,

Nissan, GM, Hybrids, plug-in cars, fuel cell technology

• Decarbonised electricity: power generating firms and CCS

• Decentralised power generation: renewable energy & feed in tariffs

• Solar technology (concentrated solar power, photovoltaics)

• BIG Improvements to what we have: insulation, manufacturing, efficiency gains, design changes to buildings, improvements to existing infrastructure

• Smarter communications technology: Traffic, energy management etc

• Biofuels: second generation (non food crops, ethanol)

Business and Govt action:

• Wal-Mart: committed to being supplied 100% by renewable energy, creating zero waste and selling environmentally-friendly products

• BT: 80% carbon emissions reduction target by 2020

• ArcelorMittal, Corus and ThyssenKrupp: 1 billion Euro research project on gas recycling and CCS in EU

• Interface: Aiming to be environmentally neutral by 2020. 60% achieved

• South Korea: South Korea Green Growth Plan: $84bn five-year programme to develop green industry as growth engine for entire Korean economy

Business action:

• Tesco: £100 million climate technologies fund, pledged to cut energy usage per square foot by 50% by 2010, compared to 2000 levels

• Iberdrola: World’s largest provider of renewable energy: 44GW of renewable assets at different stages of development, 95% of it wind power

• Shell: Includes cost of carbon emissions when budgeting for all new

projects

• Unilever: Reduced CO2 emissions in manufacturing operations by more than 30% in a decade

• Lafarge: 20% cut in net emissions per tonne of cement worldwide and a 10% cut in absolute emissions in industrialized countries by 2010, from 1990 levels

Business and Climate Change

Business and Climate Change

Marks and Spencer: Achievements, commitments, opportunities – Plan A launched January 2007

– Stores 10% more energy efficient. Logistics 20% more fuel efficient

– Reduced food packaging by 16% and food carrier bag usage by 83%. Saved £50 million in 2009

– 2010: 80 new commitments. Complement the existing 100 which will still be delivered by 2012 (45 already achieved).

– Build Plan A into every one of the 2.7 billion individual M&S products sold each year by 2020 (50% of products by 2015)

– Help 1 million M&S customers develop their own personal Plan A by 2015 and 3 million by 2020.

– £100,000 prize (Your Green Idea) for the best customer idea to help green M&S

– Offering employees free loft insulation

Business and Climate Change

Vodafone Group: Plans and strategies:

– Climate change strategy two key elements:

1. Cut emissions by 50% by 2020 (from the 2006/07 baseline).2. Provide products and services to help customers reduce their emissions

– Improving energy efficiency, making greater use of renewably generated energy

– Networks account for more than 80% of the CO2 emissions

– Using more renewable energy. Exploring opportunities to install more on-site

– Help customers reduce carbon footprint. Reducing the need to travel and facilitating intelligent energy management systems.

– Research by the Global e-Sustainability Initiative suggests that ICT technology could help other industries and consumers avoid 7.8 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions – 15% of predicted total global emissions by 2020

Business and Climate Change

Can we make green cool for consumers?

Business and Climate Change Resources:

Ethical Corporation website and briefings: www.ethicalcorp.com

IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch

Tyndall Centre: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk

YouTube science videos. Search for “Potholer54” channel

DailyClimate: http://www.dailyclimate.org

The Climate Group: http://www.theclimategroup.org

Business and Climate Change Resources:

FC Business Intelligence websites:

ClimateChangeCorp.comWindEnergyUpdate.com

NuclearEnergyInsider.comCspToday.com (solar)CpvToday.com (solar)

ThinFilmToday.com (solar)

Thank you! Toby.Webb@ethicalcorp.com+44 (0) 207 375 7561. Blog: www.ethicalcorp.blogspot.com