Boosting Renewable Energy Financing - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org › en › 915661481606611543...

Boosting Renewable Energy

Financing

Senior Director Ms. Anita Marangoly George

Tokyo, Japan / November 4th, 2014

CONTENTS

Global Trends Future Scenarios Progress Challenges Markets Expansion World Bank Group Portfolio

I GLOBAL TRENDS

Overall share of renewable energy has remained quite flat,

albeit some sources grew exponentially from a small base

Traditional biomass accounts for over half of renewable

energy, mainly for heating and cooking

Less developed regions show higher (though declining)

renewable energy shares – and vice versa

Countries with highest renewable shares reach 50% mark (excluding traditional biomass)

Largest increases in renewable energy consumption registered by OECD and some emerging countries

II FUTURE SCENARIOS

Global models show that business as usual falls

well short of where we need to be by 2030

III PROGRESS

The cost of wind and solar PV technology have gradually lower, to the point that they are competitive in many systems

A steep price decline of solar PV modules registered between 2011 and 2012 reduced investment costs

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

20

13

USD

/Wp

Crystalline Germany

Crystalline China

Crystalline Japan

Thin film CdS/CdTe

Thin film a-Si

Thin film a-Si/u-Si or Global Price Index(Q4 2013 onwards)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

At least 138 countries have a renewable energy target in 2014

1%

51%

14%

2% 6%

1%

1%

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report

1%

39 41 36

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

HIC UMIC LMIC LIC

Number of countries with a target

HIC

UMIC

LMIC

LIC

68% 79% 75%

63%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

HIC UMIC LMIC LIC

Percent of countries with a target

HIC

UMIC

LMIC

LIC

2020 Renewable Energy Target in Japan 10% of Primary Energy (currently 7.1%) Technology specific: - 3.3 GW Biopower - 0.53 GW Geothermal - 49 GW Hydro - 1.5 GW Ocean - 28 GW Solar PV - 5 GW Wind

Share of Countries with RE Policies By Income Group

Source: REN21, 2014

Middle and lower income economies are increasingly adopting policies to support renewable energy development

Many countries have introduced feed-in tariff policies (68 to date) but after 2010 there has been marked preference for the

use competitive schemes

60

27

16 13 14

41

8

27

12

30

4

22

68

54

28

43

18

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FIT/FIP Tendering RPS/Quota Net Metering Heat Obligation Biofuel BlendMandate

Power Generation Heating andCooling

Transport

Nu

mb

er o

f co

un

trie

s

2010 - early 2014

2010

III CHALLENGES

Global investment in renewable energy has declined over the last two years, in part due to reductions in technology cost, but mainly attributed to policy uncertainty

Annual investment need to reach SE4ALL target to 2030 is $320 Billion

Roughly 60 percent of annual investment needed to reach SE4ALL renewable goal is in emerging markets

Source: Global Energy Assessment 2012 by IIASA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013; World Bank

Baseline and annual investments needed in each region to attain SE4ALL goal in renewable energy by 2030 (USD Billion)

Regional Share of Annual Investment Gap

Source: Global Energy Assessment 2012 by IIASA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013; World Bank Note: “Others” includes synthetic fuels, hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells from renewables

About 50 percent of annual investment needed to the close investment gap will have to be in hydro and wind

Baseline and annual investments needed to attain SE4ALL goal in renewable energy by 2030, by technology (USD Billion)

Share of Annual Investment Gap by Technology

In many developing countries the local banks and domestic capital markets lack the depth necessary to meet the required investment needs

Banking sector and capital markets in many developing countries lack necessary depth

• Significant local institutional investor pools exist but very little is targeted towards sustainable energy infrastructure

• Commercial banks in less developed countries often have substantial energy exposure to national utilities, which limits new lending

• Access to debt capital markets via bond issuance and syndicated loans is currently insufficient to meet investment needs

Having an in-country environment that enables investment is key

• Strong regulatory framework - an appropriate policy setting Economic stability

• Political and institutional stability

Potential to mobilise $120bn incremental new annual investment by 2020 for sustainable energy

1. $35bn – Green Bonds: Catalyse further expansion of Green Bond market, use it to drive fresh capital into new sustainable energy investments, in particular into the more nascent project bond market and asset-backed Green Bond segments

2. $30bn – DFIs (co-lending): Develop tailored structures that allow private sector to co-lend with DFIs in emerging markets, as well as helping to refinance existing sustainable energy loan portfolios by attracting new investors

3. $30bn – DFIs (private sector lending): Encourage new construction stage lending, supported by DFI supported subordinated debt credit enhancement instruments, and enable later-stage institutional investor flows

4. $25bn – Aggregation: Develop aggregation and blended funding structures for renewable energy project developers including those doing replicable small-scale projects in emerging markets and for energy efficiency

Policies need to embody key attributes to effectively attract private participation in renewable energy investment

Attribute Description

Predictability

Associated with the long term certainty of RE production purchase and price

purchase obligation imposed on utilities, discos or other service providers explicit rules for price level modifications and their frequency inclusion of mechanisms in tenders that promote realistic price bids

Efficiency

Refers to the efficiency of the remuneration level (price, period of support)

Policy makers need to ensure that the price incentive is closely aligned to costs to avoid over compensation or infra-marginal rents

Sustainability

Incremental cost is covered through a sustainable mechanism

Pass-through to the consumer tariff (surcharge) Consumer affordability

Accessibility

Associated with access to the grid

Prioritized access to the grid (or priority dispatch) Existence of a grid code that includes measures or standards for managing

variable renewable energy Transparency in cost allocation of curtailment

The Planning Challenge

There is still a lack of adequate planning to integrate renewables into power systems, not only in developing but also in developed economies Key elements of planning include: 1. Target with a corresponding action plan

2. Inclusion of existing RES options in long term expansion planning (LTEP) using

traditional least cost planning and if possible other complementary or cutting edge tools

3. Proactive transmission expansion planning

4. Comprehensive high-quality and validated resource assessment and mapping, including ideally the publication of a strategic planning or zoning guidance

The Challenge of Integrating Variable Renewable Energy

Areas of intervention to accommodate variable renewable energy

IV RENEWABLE MARKETS

Growing Markets: Increased Trade in Solar PV Cells

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trad

e V

olu

me

(U

SD M

illio

n)

Imports

Exports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trad

e V

olu

me

(U

SD M

illio

n)

Imports

Exports

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trad

e V

olu

me

(U

SD M

illio

n)

Imports

Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trad

e V

olu

me

(U

SD M

illio

n)

Imports

Exports

HIGH INCOME UPPER MIDDLE INCOME

LOWER MIDDLE INCOME LOW INCOME

HS Code: 854140 – Photosensitive semiconductor devices, incl. photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled in modules or made up into panels; light emitting diodes (excl. photovoltaic generators)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Germany

Netherlands

USA

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Taipei, Chinese

Hong Kong, China

Italy

Belgium

Singapore

Volume of Trade in 2012 (USD Billion)

Exports

Imports

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

China

Malaysia

Mexico

Thailand

Bulgaria

Hungary

Romania

Brazil

Peru

South Africa


Exports

Imports

15 20 25


0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

India

Ukraine

Philippines

Viet Nam

Indonesia

Nigeria

Ghana

Morocco

Pakistan

Nicaragua


Exports

Imports

0.75 1 0 0.01 0.02 0.03

Bangladesh

Uganda

Kenya

Mali

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Sierra Leone

Nepal

Cambodia

Rwanda


Exports

Imports

0.04 0.06


Top 10 countries in trade volume of key component of solar PV by income level

Note: Figure shows net trade of “photosensitive semi-conductor device.

Top 10 countries in trade of wind turbines by income level



0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Germany

Denmark

USA

Spain

United Kingdom

Italy

Canada

Sweden

Australia

France


Exports

Imports

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

China

Mexico

Brazil

Turkey

Romania

Thailand

Venezuela

Bulgaria

Malaysia

Azerbaijan


Exports

Imports

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1

Ukraine

Nicaragua

India

Morocco

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Viet Nam

Indonesia

Mauritania

Syrian Arab Republic


Exports

Imports

0 0.0002 0.0004

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sierra Leone

Bangladesh

Burundi

Kenya

Gambia

Rwanda

Madagascar

Malawi


Exports

Imports

0.007 0.009

V WBG LENDING / PORTFOLIO

WBG had a strong year in 2014 with over $9 billion in energy lending

11,920

7,226 7,547

7,018

9,445

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US$

Mill

ion

s

World Bank

MIGA

IFC

11,919

7,226 7,547

7,018

9,445

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US$

Mill

ion

s

Upstream extractives and policy

Policy and Institutional development

Transmission and Distribution

Coal and Oil fired generation

Gas fired generation

Energy Efficiency

Renewable Energy (Non-Hydro) generation

Renewable Energy (Hydro) generation

Renewable Energy accounted for over $3.5 billion of WBG energy lending

Geospatial planning (GIS) and strategic environmental assessment

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

Phase 5

Preliminary resource mapping output based on satellite and global atmospheric and meteorological

data

Ground-based data collection (met masts installed for 12-24 months)

Production of validated resource atlas based on satellite and ground-based data

Develop and agree policy framework to support investment

Collect and generate

geospatial data

Initial outputs inform WB-Client policy

dialogue

Provide training and

capacity building

Build country and global

partnerships

Coordinate with other

donor-funded programs

Disseminate via open data

repository and GIS portal

ESMAP Resource mapping program

Global Geothermal Development Plan • Aims to better manage and reduce risks of exploratory drilling,

and to bring what is now a marginal renewable energy source into the mainstream to deliver power to millions

34

Sustainable Energy Department

Source: http://www.scientificamerican.com

– Convene donors and multilateral lenders around an investment plan to scale up geothermal power in the developing world

– Perform exploratory test drilling

– Develop a pipeline of commercially-viable projects that are ready for private investment

ANNEX 1 CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS

Climate Investment Funds

36

Design and Operating Principles

Partnership among MDBs (AfDB, AsDB, EBRD, IDB, and WBG)

Demonstrate scale and transformation

Multi-stakeholder at governance and country levels

Leverages public and private sector

Complementarity with other partners at the country level

Governance o Trust Fund (Sub-) Committees o CIF Admin Unit, Trustee, MDB Committee

Sunset clause

Structure and Funding

37

Clean Technology Fund

Finance scaled-up demonstration,

deployment and transfer of

low carbon technologies

Strategic Climate Fund

Targeted programs with dedicated funding

to pilot new approaches with

potential for scaling up

Pilot Program

for Climate

Resilience

(PPCR)

Mainstream climate

resilience into core

development

planning

$1.3 billion

Forest Investment

Program

(FIP)

Reduce emissions

from deforestation

and forest

degradation

$639 million

Scaling Up

Renewable Energy

in Low Income

Countries

(SREP)

Create economic

opportunities and

increase energy

access through

renewables

$551 million

±$ 2.5 billion

Investment Plans

±$5.5 billion

• Support country and regional development

strategies

• Optimize blending with MDB financing and

other sources, including bilateral programs

• Range of financial products to stimulate

private sector engagement

Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program

in Low Income Countries (SREP)

38

Purpose To pilot and demonstrate the economic, social and environmental viability of low carbon development pathways in the energy sector by creating new economic opportunities and increasing energy access through the use of renewable energy

Scale $551 million in pledges for programs of investments and capacity building in renewable energy. Expected Co-financing 1:4 Private sector program for $90 million SREP funding

Governance SREP Sub-Committee (recipient/donor countries)

Administrative Unit

Trustee

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) - ADB, AfDB, IDB, EBRD, and WB/IFC

Observers: civil society, Indigenous Peoples, private sector, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNFCCC

Contributor Contribution

Type

Contribution in million USD eq.

(as of March 31, 2014)

Australia Grant 10

Denmark Grant 12

Japan Grant 40

Korea Grant 6

Netherlands Grant 76

Norway Grant 97

Spain Grant 4

Sweden Grant 44

Switzerland Grant 26

United Kingdom

Capital * 186

United States Grant 50

Total 551

* Near-zero interest loan

Scaling-Up Renewable Energy Program in

Low-Income Countries (SREP)

39

10 Investment Plans endorsed for $384M (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Mali, Liberia, Honduras, Maldives, Nepal, Armenia, Solomon Islands)

3 Investment Plans in the Pipeline (Mongolia, Yemen, Vanuatu) 14 New countries (Benin, Lesotho, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Zambia, Bangladesh, Kiribati, Cambodia, Nicaragua, Haiti)

Set Aside Reserve for Private Sector ($90M)

Expected co-financing (1 to 4) SREP Investment Criteria • Transformative impact • Enabling environment • Implementation capacity • Catalyze increased investments in RE • Improve long-term economic viability of RE sector • Increase energy access

Cookstoves, 2%

Solar PV, 3% Waste to

Energy, 5%

Hydropower, 14%

Geothermal, 36%

Mixed RE (e.g., hybrid mini-grids),

40%

SREP-supported installed RE generation capacity by technology, in MW (as of Sep 30, 2014)

Types of Activities

40

Investments

Eligible Investments:

Solar, wind, bio energy, geothermal, small-hydro (<10MW)

Electricity and thermal

On-grid, Off-grid, Mini-grid

Capacity Building & Advisory Services

Development of energy policies and legislation

Assessment of technical resources potential

Strengthening governance and institutional capacity

Creation of incentive scheme to improve financial viability of RETs

Clean Technology Fund (CTF) • Finance scaled-up demonstration, deployment and transfer of low carbon technologies

• Support 15 countries* and 1 region (MENA)

• WB portfolio and pipeline totals US$ 2.1 billion

Pipeline 668

Renewable Energy

941

Energy Efficiency 230

Transport 225

Portfolio 1,396

CTF Portfolio and Pipeline (US$ m)

* Chile, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam

Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP)

• To scale up the deployment of renewable energy solutions and expand renewables markets in

the world’s poorest countries

• Support 27 countries*, including 14 new countries** endorsed in June 2014

• WB portfolio and pipeline totals US$ 179 million

Pipeline 119

Portfolio***

60

SREP Portfolio and Pipeline (US$ m)

* Armenia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Kenya, Liberia, Maldives, Mali,

Nepal, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, Mongolia, Yemen, Vanuatu,

and 14 new countries below

** Bangladesh, Benin, Cambodia, Ghana, Haiti, Kiribati, Lesotho,

Madagascar, Malawi, Nicaragua, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Uganda,

and Zambia

*** 4 projects in portfolio, including geothermal, biogas, solar and

hybrid

ANNEX 2 ESMAP

Clean Energy Program

Global Geothermal Development Plan ($7.5 million): Identifying and developing geothermal resource validation projects and mobilizing $500 million concessional finance for investment-ready exploratory drilling projects

Djibouti IDA project approved. Clean Technology Fund has allocated $115 million; first projects for Chile and Mexico (IDB) approved. Potential projects under development in Armenia, Indonesia, Nicaragua, Turkey, East Africa and Caribbean

Renewable Energy Resource Mapping ($22 million): In 12 countries in AFR, EAP, and SAR, ground-based measurements, combined with geospatial analysis and strategic environmental assessment for wind, solar, biomass, and small-hydro

Global Knowledge Products – RE staff training program with IFC

– Grid integration (smart grids, integration of RE into grids)

– Climate Resilience

Energy Access Program

Sustainable Energy for All TA Facility ($15 million): Accelerating and scaling

up energy access programs through preparation of investment prospectuses in Burundi, Guinea, Liberia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Senegal, and Central America for clean cooking

Africa Renewable Energy and Access Program ($24 million): supporting IDA pipeline

SE4ALL Knowledge Hub ($8.2 million): – Defining and measuring access to energy: implementing a multi-tier

framework through global surveys – Updating the SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework – Periodic State of Energy Access Report: “WDR for Energy Access” – Readiness for Investment in Sustainable Energy (RISE): “doing business”

Energy Assessments and Strategies Program

Energy Subsidy Reform and Delivery TA Facility ($19 million): Assessing subsidies, designing reforms and mitigation measures for poor, supporting communications

Activities underway in Egypt, Vietnam, Belarus, Turkey, Kyrgyz Rep, and Haiti, plus regional program in Central America and a global study on the political economy of subsidy reforms

Global Knowledge Products: – Electricity sector planning

– Open Access and Private Sector Participation in T&D Systems

City Energy Efficiency Transformation Initiative

Integrating Energy Efficiency in Urban Planning and developing Investment Programs: Public Lighting, Water and Waste-water, Buildings, Power and Heat, Waste Management, and Urban Transport ($10 million)

Initial projects: Brazil (Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte), Shenzen, Macedonia, Karachi, Ukraine and IFC EDGE program (global and South Africa)

Global deployment of city energy diagnostic tool TRACE – more than 25 cities to-date

Knowledge Program: training program for urban transport leaders

Annual grants for analytical and advisory activities for regional transport teams to promote energy efficient urban transport

Special Initiative – SIDS DOCK Support Program

• $16 million program for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) funded by Denmark and Japan

• Co-financing IDA in Maldives, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu

• Establishing (with IDA) Eastern Caribbean Electricity Regulatory Authority

• Geothermal and Solar PV scale-up in Caribbean

• Energy Efficiency TA in Sao Tome

• Pilot PPP model for solar PV for health care facilities in Cabo Verde

• TA for renewable energy supply to grid in Mauritius and Seychelles

ANNEX III ADDITIONAL INTERESTING SLIDES

Global investment in renewable energy has declined over the last two years, in part due to reductions in technology cost, but also policy uncertainty

Source: IEA

63

86 95

117

161

201

227

278

258 252

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

US$

Bill

ion

s

Wind - On shore

Wind - Off shore

STE

PV

Ocean

Hydropower

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Annual RE investment still falls short of that needed to achieve the SE4ALL target, estimated at $ 320 Million per year

51 * Access values include electricity but exclude non-solid fuels; ‡ values presented are estimates

Global models show that business as usual falls well short of where we need to be by 2030

Germany

Denmark

USA

Spain

United Kingdom

Canada

China Italy

Japan

Turkey India

Australia

Brazil

Sweden

Mexico

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20

40

60

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100

120

140

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Tota

l Tra

de

to

GD

P R

atio

(2

01

2)

CAGR of Trade Volume of Product (2002 - 2012) Note: Bubble size denotes net trade volume of product

Japan is among the top 15 countries in next trade of wind turbines

Lower middle income and low income countries increasingly importing wind turbines



HS Code: 850231 - Wind-powered generating equipment

0

5

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25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Exports

Top 10 countries in trade of wind turbines by income level



0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Germany

Denmark

USA

Spain

United Kingdom

Italy

Canada

Sweden

Australia

France


Exports

Imports

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

China

Mexico

Brazil

Turkey

Romania

Thailand

Venezuela

Bulgaria

Malaysia

Azerbaijan


Exports

Imports

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1

Ukraine

Nicaragua

India

Morocco

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Viet Nam

Indonesia

Mauritania

Syrian Arab Republic


Exports

Imports

0 0.0002 0.0004

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Sierra Leone

Bangladesh

Burundi

Kenya

Gambia

Rwanda

Madagascar

Malawi


Exports

Imports

0.007 0.009

Japan is among the top 15 countries in net trade of solar PV cells

(figure shows net trade of “photosensitive semi-conductor device”)

China

Germany

Japan USA

Taipei, Chinese

Netherlands

Hong Kong, China

Korea

Italy Spain

Malaysia Belgium

France

Singapore

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Tota

l Tra

de

to

GD

P R

atio

(2

01

2)

CAGR of Trade Volume of Product (2002 - 2012) Note: Bubble size denotes net trade volume of product

Number of countries participating in the trade of key solar PV components (module/cell) increasing slowly

Access to clean energy technology dependent on investment climate and skill / knowledge base

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Product : HS Code: 854140 – Photosensitive semiconductor devices, incl. photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled in modules or made up into panels; light emitting diodes (excl. photovoltaic generators)

Auctions are performing extremely well in emerging economies

Brazil, China, India, South Africa and many other countries are using the auction based approach to deploy renewables competitively and minimize subsidies

Source: World Bank

The private sector requires policies with sustainable and affordable incentives

Impact of Feed-in Tariffs on Household Income and Residential Electricity Bill (selected sample of countries)

Danish green transition

High levels of variable renewables (mostly wind) achieved thanks to: - Attractive VRE incentives - Strong interconnections (Nordic electricity system and Germany)

(and 50 years of common planning). - Advanced operations (forecasting, etc.) and market design.

Source: Energinet

Boosting Renewable Energy Financing - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org › en › 915661481606611543...

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Transcript of Boosting Renewable Energy Financing - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org › en › 915661481606611543...