Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class...

18

Transcript of Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class...

Page 1: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The
Page 2: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 2

Dear fellow Globalphiles,

The integrity of your home – or any modern building – depends on a well-constructed foundation of concrete.

The same is true of your portfolio.

Without a rock-solid foundation to support your investing strategy the structure, the long-term performance of your investments is likely to be shaky, uneven, and prone to failure.

In this special report, we direct your attention to three world-class stocks of companies handpicked by the World Money Analyst team as the best-of-the-best for building a winning portfolio.

These companies are large, steady performers that are number one in their respective industries. They:

• consistently dominate their markets and their competition• have proven management teams• have a solid history of stable growth, and• have a strong track record of paying healthy dividends to shareholders year

after year

In a world of falling markets and failing industries, these three companies are making money when many businesses are piling up massive losses. While others are downsizing, these three are growing. The ongoing economic crisis has not hurt these world-class companies likeithasmostoftheircompetitors.Theyarediversifiedbothacrossindustriesandgeopolitically – the perfect bedrock to support your investments over the long haul.

As global market turmoil and upheaval continues and Washington becomes increasingly confiscatory,itisimperativethatyoulaythegroundworkforsafe,diversifiedinvestmentswithcompanies outside the reach of the long arm of United States’ tax policy.

The three safe, steady stocks showcased in this report should be considered core holdings in a portfolio – perfect for shoring up your investment foundation.

To your success,

Kevin Brekke,Managing EditorWorld Money Analyst

Page 3: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 3

Nestlé AG

By Adrian DayWorld Money Analyst

Special Situations

Onceinawhileintoeveryfieldcomesacompetitor–aPlacidoDomingowhostandsheadand shoulders above his peers and whose excellence endures. Among public companies, Nestlé is such a competitor, one of a handful of truly great global businesses. Such excellencedoesnotcomecheap;justasyouwouldn’thavebeenabletoaffordPlacidoforyour local stage production, so too is Nestlé rarely a bargain. But these dominant superstars are worth paying a premium for, and generally reward you well over the years.

Sellingprocessedfoodisnotaneasybusiness.Yes,everyoneneedstoeat,butit’sdifficulttodistinguishyourbrandfromthecompetition,whichisfierce,somarginsareslim.Andthecost of raw food commodities continues to climb, as the world’s population places greater demands on a more limited food supply.

The macro story is straightforward: as the number of middle-class consumers grows worldwide, Nestlé’s products become accessible to them. The brand is well known and respected in most countries, and is a natural target for the millions who attain a new level of affluenceeveryyearandseekabetterstandardofliving.

But the reason to buy Nestlé is not so much a macro story as it is a bottom-up story of a greatbusiness.This147-year-oldcompanyhasproveditselfabletowithstanddifficultiesand grow consistently over the decades, both organically and through acquisitions. It has also demonstrated an ability to innovate along the entire product chain, from farming and research through to marketing and sales.

Global Reach

Headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland, Nestlé’s products touch nearly everyone in the world. With over 6,000 brands sold in 90 countries, it’s a truly global company in the way few others are, with revenues and costs spread among dozens of currencies. Hardly a day – certainly not a week – passes without many of us consuming one of its products, whether it’s bottled water,coffee,chocolate,orpetfood,withsuchleadingbrandsasPerrier,Nescafé,KitKat,and Friskies.

Swiss SIX: NESN (CHF) ISIN: CH0038863350

ADR: NSRGY (US$) OTC: NSRGF (US$)

Page 4: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 4

It has grown both organically and through acquisition, buying such iconic brands (in their homemarkets)asCarnationmilk,Roundtreechocolate,Buitonipasta,RalstonPurinapetfood, and Chef America snack food.

2012 full-year results; increases over 2011; OG = organic growth; RIG = real internal growth

Nestlé’s core brands are only part of the story. The company is certainly helped by its “billionaire brands,” products that generate at least one billion Swiss francs annually in revenue. The spice is added by expansion into emerging markets, where it frequently gets inaheadofthecompetitionwhensuchexpansionwasclearlynotprofitableormeaningfultothe company.

Page 5: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 5

It set up base in Indonesia in the 1980s, sending in management to help individual farmers. By 1990, Indonesia accounted for less than one-third of one percent of the company’s sales, yet its involvement at the local level has paid off as the country’s economy grows.

Nestlé is also adding high-margin nutrition and wellness products, including so-called “clinical nutrition” such as specialty foods for diabetics or those with heart conditions. In fact, it now calls itself a global “nutrition, health and wellness Company.”

Core Values

The expansion into nutrition and wellness and taking a proactive role in local economies are two examples of the company’s core values: emphasize research, take a long-term view, and employ a highly localized approach.

This long-range thinking was demonstrated with its investments in both Russia and China. Unlike many other Western companies which fledduringtheRussiancrisisin1998,Nestléstuck it out. Similarly, it entered China slowly, and focused less on selling its established brands and more on areas where the country and its consumers needed assistance.

Many Chinese are wary of the water supply, and Nestlé meets the concern with low-cost bottled water. Following the recent tainted milk scandals, Nestlé worked with small dairy farmers, teaching them better animal husbandry and how to keep their products fresh and safe.

Like similar ventures in Africa and Indonesia, among other countries, this ensures a local supply of agricultural products and a positive local image for the company.

Global Giant… One Country at a Time

For a company its size, Nestlé is highly decentralized throughout both its management and products. It is sensitive to local cultures and adapts its products accordingly. In some markets, this simply means packaging products in inexpensive single servings that those of us in the West would typically buy in bulk.

2012 revenue split between emerging and developed economies

Page 6: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 6

In other cases, it means tailoring products to the local market. This can be as straightforward asproducingdifferentflavoredchocolatesthatsatisfylocaltastes;inJapan,green-teaflavoredKitKatcandyisabestseller.AlsoinJapan,afterKelloggfailedtomakesignificantinroads in the cereal market, Nestlé introduced such delicacies as seaweed cereal, understandingthatmostJapaneseareaccustomedtoeatingfishandseafoodforbreakfast.

Nestlé is also an innovator at the other end of the distribution chain: marketing. It recently debuted a television commercial in Germany for one of its dog-food lines. The ad included a high-frequency tone inaudible to humans but caused dogs to jump up and bark in front of the television. The owners thought that their intelligent canine was asking for the snack.

Not a Bargain, but Not Expensive

Obviously, we can only scratch the surface of a US$225 billion (market cap) company. SufficeittosaythatNestléhasshownitselfagainandagaintobeatruebluechip.Ithasa consistent earnings growth history, with only one negative year in the past 15, and has repeatedly raised its annual dividend. This year’s dividend of CHF2.25 is almost double the CHF1.22 paid in 2008, and more than triple the CHF0.70 of a decade ago.

At 19 times earnings, the stock – which has moved from CHF51 to its current CHF64.40 over the past year – is hardly bargain priced. But other metrics are reasonable: debt-to-assets of 22%; 18% ROE; a strong balance sheet; and an AA rating.

Revenue distribution across product lines

Page 7: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 7

Most important is the yield. Because of the rising dividend, the yield is still attractive, despite the higher stock price; at its current 3.2%, the yield is close to the top end of its historical range. Until 2008, the yield was typically just a little above 2%.

So while there is a strong macro story that supports Nestlé, the fundamental reason to buy and hold the stock is for its consistent and steady growth in earnings and dividends, and its low risk as a business (and a stock). We would describe Nestlé as a heritage holding. At its currentyield,itcouldbeboughthere,andnodoubtonewouldbequitesatisfiedoverthecoming years.

However, with global stock markets vulnerable to a pullback after four solid months of gains (in my opinion), there is a good chance one could buy Nestlé for under CHF62 in the months ahead.Buyingasmallstakenowandaddingtoyourpositiononsignificantpullbacksisareasonable strategy.

Although trading Nestlé on its home market offers the greatest liquidity, trading on the US OTC is reasonably liquid. There is also a US-traded ADR with good liquidity and a tight spread, but due to the ADR sponsor’s fee the dividend is slightly less – currently 3.04% versus 3.18%. I recommend buying the ordinaries, whether on the Swiss exchange or the OTC.

Adrian Day is a British-born money manager and pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing with two books on the subject: the ground-breaking Investing Without Borders and his latest Investing in Resources: How to Gain the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks. A graduate of the London School of Economics, he is a frequent speaker at investment seminars, and has been interviewed by numerous world media, including CNBC, BBC, Bloomberg, WallStreetJournalRadio, The Cape Town Argus, La Vie Française, and The Straits Times. www.AdrianDayAssetmanagement.com

Page 8: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 8

KSB AG

By Dirk SteinhoffWorld Money Analyst

Europe

Sometimes selecting a stock is a no-brainer; other times it can really challenge your brain. The spring of 2013 is one of the former occasions. After the stock market disaster in 2008, equities dove to deep, panic-mode valuations. Since then, most major Western stock markets have almost doubled, with many back to pre-crash levels.

So, stock picking after a three-year stock market rally and today’s more-uncertainty-than-evereconomic,financial,andcurrencyinstabilityisofcoursemorechallengingthanafewyears ago. But – and here’s the good news – there are still a few diamonds in the rough. It’s times like these that require a very selective investment approach partnered with risk management.

Some of the most promising investment areas, even in a time when Western economies are shrinking,areglobalinvestmentsinwater,wastewater,energyefficiency,andmining.Thatsaid,wouldn’titbeperfecttofindasingleinvestmentthattargetsallofthesemarkets–onecompanythatcouldbenefitfromseveralboomingindustriesatonce?

That’s exactly what the German-based company KSB AG is doing.

KSB, founded in 1871 and stock-listed since 1895, is a global leader in the supply of pumps and valves for liquid transport. The group consists of 61 operating companies in 35 countries with sales in over 100 countries. It has production facilities in 19 countries, with the largest non-European production sites located in Brazil, China, India, and the US. KSB has an estimated 5% market share of the pump industry worldwide. It is the world market leader in the segment of pumps for energy and process control technology.

Ordinary Shares PreferenceShares

XETRA: KSB (€) XETRA: KSB3 (€)

ISIN: DE0006292006 ISIN: DE0006292030

Page 9: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 9

In the water and wastewater segments, KSB products and services are used for wells, pumpingstations,watertreatmentplants,floodcontrolfacilities,agriculturalirrigation,drainage systems, and desalination plants. In building services, its products are also used forhotwater,heating,airconditioning,andwastewatersystemsinoffices,airports,andindustrial complexes. As an example, it is KSB’s pumps that ensure that the tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa, standing nearly 830 meters in the Dubai desert, stays cool.

KSB’s abrasion-resistant slurry pumps help mines to transport solids-laden mixtures. In the industrial sector, its pumps and valves enable transportation even under extreme temperatures and corrosive and explosive conditions. Exposure to the energy area is throughitsstrongactivityinthepower-plantbusiness.Itsproductsincreaseenergyefficiencywith minimal environmental impact.

Page 10: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 10

For investors, KSB has an interesting share structure. The company issues both no-par value ordinary (886,615 units) and no-par value preference shares (864,712 units). Each ordinary share entitles the holder to one vote. The preference shares entitle holders to limited voting rights but carry progressive additional dividend rights. Approximately 80% of the ordinary shares – the voting shares – are owned by the KSB Foundation, while the remainingordinaryandpreferencesharesarefreefloating.

This share structure resembles a family-owned or family-run business with long-term goals, more than a typical public company that feels shareholder pressure every quarter. Continuity and long-term planning are the advantages; but there won’t be any takeover fantasies.

Page 11: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 11

OnJanuary30,2013,thecompanyreleased2012preliminaryfiguresthatwereinlinewithexpectationsandconfirmedapositiveoutlook.Theorderintakeroseby5.9%yearoveryear,theresultofincreasedordersinallthreebusinessunits–Pumps,Valves,andService.

Orders from the domestic European market rose only moderately compared to the prior year, whereastheAsia/Pacific,Americas,andMiddleEast/Africaregionshaddouble-digitgrowth.Order intake was driven by demand from the mining sector in the Americas, the chemical and petrochemical industries in Asia, and the water and wastewater industry in the Middle East and Africa.

Sales revenue grew by 8.5% YOY. Here too, the non-European regions recorded higher percentage growth in sales revenue than the European region.

KSB Key Stats

Source: Company data; Hauck & Aufhäuser, Warburg Research

2014E 2013E 2012E 2011 2010 2009

Sales EUR, m 2,454 2,337 2,269 2,091 1,939 1,893

Cashflowfromoperations

EUR, m 137.5 203.6 61.9 36.3 162.1 212.2

EBIT EUR, m 170.6 151.7 142.3 133.4 148.8 185.7

EPS EUR 55.7 47.03 43.45 41.08 44.22 61.45

Dividend yield % 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.1

Dividend payout ratio

% 19.7 27.4 29.5 29.7 27.8 25.9

Book Value per share

EUR 509 478 456 430 409 358

P/BV 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8

Current assets EUR, m 1,503 1,449 1,410 1,389 1,351 1,226

Total liabilities EUR, m 1,227 1,176 1,126 1,105 1,049 989

Page 12: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 12

With current assets of €1.410 billion and total liabilities of €1.126 billion, KSB is in a financiallystrongposition.ThecompanylookswellpreparedforapossibleheadwindfromJapanesecompetition,whichthroughthestrongdevaluationoftheyensinceSeptember2012 has gained a hefty currency advantage over the euro. Also, as a provider and servicer in the premium segment of the market, KSB has pricing power, especially for security-relevant systems, e.g., in the power-plant sector.

With global production and sales in business segments that are key areas against the background of a growing world population (mining, water, and energy), or critical in vital necessities, KSB is positioned for the years ahead, even in an uncertain economic environment.

KSB’sbusinessmodel,combinedwithitsdiversifiedinternationalactivitiesandstrongfinancialcondition,makesitanattractiveinvestment.ItoffersanattractivevaluationwithacurrentP/Eof9.3andaP/BVof0.8,androbustsalesandearningsgrowth.Andthecurrentdividendyieldis2.4%.Togetherwithitsback-to-normalcashflowin2012,KSBcurrentlytrades at a reasonable entry price of roughly €500. Its exposure to both growth industries and emerging markets adds nice growth potential for the coming years.

The niche that KSB plies is reminiscent of the California Gold Rush of 1848. It wasn’t the forty-niners – the men panning and digging for the gold – who struck it rich; most fortunes were made by those who sold supplies and services to the miners. Today, one of those gold-rush companies is a world leader in its industry: Levi Strauss & Co., the creator of theworld’sfirstbluejeans.KSB,likeLevi’s,isasuppliertoandderivesitsprofitsfromabooming industry without shouldering the entrepreneurial risk of the industry itself. And this risk, especially in mining and energy, can be quite substantial.

Dirk Steinhoff is managing director, Portfolio Management (US clients), at the BFI Capital Group. Prior to joining BFI in 2007, Mr. Steinhoff had acted as an independent asset manager for over 15 years. He successfully founded and built two companies in the realm of infrastructure and real estate management. Mr. Steinhoff is German by background. He holds a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in civil engineering and business administration, magna cum laude, from the University of Technology in Berlin, Germany. Contact: [email protected].

Page 13: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 13

Associated British Foods

By Kiron SarkarWorld Money Analyst

Global Macro

Asglobaleconomicuncertaintiescontinue,findingcompaniesthatofferlonger-termsafeharbor for your investment dollars remains a challenge. Attributes to look for include a large-cap business that can weather possible economic storms, delivers above-average growthinearningsanddividends,isfinanciallystable,hasanexcellenttrackrecord,andaprovenmanagementteamthatgeneratespositivecashflow.Roundingoutourwishlist,the company should have dominant operations in multiple sectors and have international exposure.

One company that meets all these criteria is Associated British Foods (ABF), registered andheadquarteredinLondon,England.ABFisaninternationallydiversifiedgrocery,ingredients, agriculture, and retail business, operating in over 45 countries, including Europe, the Americas, China, South Africa, and Australia. The company has a highly decentralized organizational structure, with over 20 business units that operate autonomously.

LSE:ABF(GBP) ISIN: GB0006731235

Page 14: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 14

Sugar-Coated Revenue

The company operates a major sugar business that is a global low-cost producer due to the location of its operations and continued heavy investment in the business. The sugar industryisvolatileandsubjecttolargepriceswingsandregulatoryinfluence,andthesegmentisexpectedtoreturnlowerprofitsthisyearduetoadverseforeignexchangemovements, higher sugar beet costs, and lower production.

However,thecashflowgeneratedfromthisbusinessismaterialandhelpsfinancethegroup’s expansion, while keeping overall leverage low. The sugar segment remains the company’slargestcontributortoprofits,thoughthisisexpectedtochangeinthenextfewyears.

The grocery segment includes the Ovaltine and Twinings tea brands, together with fats and oil, starch, ethnic foods, milling, and baking. These businesses, some of which have been restructured,shouldcontinuetoperformsolidlywithgoodcashflow.

Shop Till You Drop

TheexcitingmajorgrowthbusinessisitsPrimarkretailclothingchain,whichsellsvalue-priced, fashionable merchandise. This unique offering has been a big success, and the businessmodelhasmeantrapidgrowth.PrimarkhasexpandeditspresencebeyondtheUKto several countries in continental Europe.

The recent expansion into Germany has been particularly successful, and the group is set to increase its presence in the country. An acquisition is certainly a possibility to speed up the pace of expansion. The group plans to enter France, where its fashion-on-a-budget shopping experience should appeal to French consumers, in spite of the country’s ongoing economic woes.

Page 15: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 15

Primarkisprojectedtoexpandata10%+rate(basedonretailfloorspace)throughtheendofthedecade.Thisyear,marginswillwidento11%,andprofits(EBIT)shouldincrease25%and continue to grow between 15% and 20% for several years.

Primarkshouldbecomethegroup’smostprofitablebusinessactivityin2014,andpresentlyaccountsfornearly40%ofgroupprofits.Primark,togetherwiththeOvaltineandTwiningsbusiness,representsover50%ofthegroup’sprofits.

Solid Outlook

ABFhasachievedcompoundedannualgrowthofrevenuesandprofitsoverthelast10yearsof 10% and 11%, respectively, no small achievement for any business of its size. The group’s non-sterling-denominated revenue streams buffer the company’s earnings from a possible devaluation of the pound.

Netcashflowfromoperationswasparticularlystrongforthe2012financialyear–up68.5%from2011to£1,240million–andisforecasttogrowata8.5%+compoundannualrateoverthe next several years.

Thecompany’sfinancialpositionisparticularlystrong.Netdebttoequityisbelow20%.Thecompany’sstrongcashflowwillenableABFtorolloutitsPrimarkbusinessacrossEuropeaggressively and possibly, to buy bolt-on acquisitions in that space.

Fiscal Year 2012 vs. 2011

Gross revenue +11%

Operatingprofit +4%

Adjustedoperatingprofit +17%

Adjustedprofitbeforetax +17%

Adjusted earnings per share +18%

Dividends per share +15%

Page 16: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 16

ABFprofitgrowthforthecurrentyear,whichendsSeptember30,2013,shouldbeheavilyweightedtowardsthefirsthalf.StrongtradingperformancebyPrimark,combinedwithlowercotton prices, should boost margins at the business. New store openings are also expected tobeconcentratedinthefirsthalf.Profitsfromthesugarbusinesswilldeclinein2013.

Earnings per share are projected to increase by over 10% compounded during the next 5 years. The current p/e ratio, based on historic adjusted earnings per share of 87.2p, is around21,andwilldeclinetoaround18.8forthecurrentyear.Theincreaseinprofitsduringsubsequent years should reduce the p/e to around 16 in 2014 and to 14.5 in 2015. The current dividend yield is 1.6% and should rise to over 1.75% this year, and continue to rise at a10%+compoundrateperyearthereafter.Thedividendpayoutratioisabout33%.

Value Proposition

Valuing ABF by reference to each of its businesses suggests a £19.50 to £22 per-share price tag.Onadiscountedcashflowbasis,valuationsareslightlylower.Thecompanytradesinline with the EU Consumer sector multiple of 18.7 times. However, factoring the projected growthrateanddividendincreasesoverthenextfiveyears,andthefoundationislaidforshare price gains in coming years.

ABF is trading in the £18-£19 range, close to its 52-week high and approaching full valuation according to our numbers above. The vast majority of analysts rate the shares a buy or a hold at worst, with a target price ranging from £18.50 to £20. The company is deemed a core holding by most UK institutions.

Intheshortterm,thesharesshouldtreadwaterassecond-half2013profitabilityisunlikelytomatchfirsthalfgrowth,andmanagementhassuggestedthatfirsthalf2013willbe“substantially ahead” of the comparable 2012 period.

Thecombinationofanumberofdefensivebusinessesgeneratingsignificantcashflows,lowleverage,provenmanagement,globallydiversifiedrevenuesources,anddouble-digitprofitsand dividends that should rise for the foreseeable future, makes this company particularly attractive in the medium- to longer-term.

Considering the recent strong performance of its shares, it is reasonable to wait for a pullback before staking a position. Or buy some shares now and average down on any price corrections.

Page 17: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 17

Kiron Sarkar attended university in London, where he studied chemistry and geology. After qualifying as a UK chartered accountant, he joined Rothschild in London and was appointed head of M&A, based in Hong Kong, with responsibility for the region. On his return to London, he was a founding member of the No. 1 rated Rothschild international privatization and head of the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) team. He then worked for the UK Foreign Office, in particular, advising senior members of CEE governments on economic, financial, policy, privatization, banking, and utilities. Appointed head of Media, Telecoms, and Technology for CIBC World Markets, Kiron continued to advise on privatizations, M&A transactions, and financings. During his career, Kiron has been involved in over US$150 billion of transactions. Over the last few years, Kiron has written a global macro newsletter.

Page 18: Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated ... · Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-lated Yields over the Long Haul page 2 Dear fellow Globalphiles, The

Best in the World: 3 World-Class Stocks for Armor-Plated Yields over the Long Haul

page 18

Use of this content, the Mauldin Economics website, and related sites and applications is provided under the Mauldin Economics Terms & Conditions of Use.

Unauthorized Disclosure Prohibited

Theinformationprovidedinthispublicationisprivate,privileged,andconfidentialinformation,licensedforyoursole individual use as a subscriber. Mauldin Economics reserves all rights to the content of this publication and related materials. Forwarding, copying, disseminating, or distributing this report in whole or in part, including substantialquotationofanyportionthepublicationoranyreleaseofspecificinvestmentrecommendations,isstrictly prohibited.

Participationinsuchactivityisgroundsforimmediateterminationofallsubscriptionsofregisteredsubscribersdeemed to be involved at Mauldin Economics’ sole discretion, may violate the copyright laws of the United States, and may subject the violator to legal prosecution. Mauldin Economics reserves the right to monitor the use of this publication without disclosure by any electronic means it deems necessary and may change those means without notice at any time. If you have received this publication and are not the intended subscriber, please contact [email protected].

Disclaimers

The Mauldin Economics website, Yield Shark, Thoughts from the Frontline, Thoughts from the Frontline Audio, Outside the Box, Over My Shoulder, World Money Analyst, Bull’s Eye Investor, Things That Make You GoHmmm…,JustOneTrade,andConversationsarepublishedbyMauldinEconomics,LLC.Informationcontained in such publications is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in such publications is not intended to constitute individual investment adviceandisnotdesignedtomeetyourpersonalfinancialsituation.Theopinionsexpressedinsuchpublications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in such publications may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information. You are advised todiscusswithyourfinancialadvisersyourinvestmentoptionsandwhetheranyinvestmentissuitableforyourspecificneedspriortomakinganyinvestments.

JohnMauldin,MauldinEconomics,LLCandotherentitiesinwhichhehasaninterest,employees,officers,family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publicationsorwebsite.Corporatepoliciesareineffectthatattempttoavoidpotentialconflictsofinterestandresolveconflictsofinterestthatdoariseinatimelyfashion.Mauldin Economics, LLC reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund to the subscriber the amount of the subscription payment previously received relating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of any Mauldin Economics publication or website, any infringement or misappropriation of Mauldin Economics, LLC’s proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of Mauldin Economics, LLC.

Affiliate Notice

MauldinEconomicshasaffiliateagreementsinplacethatmayincludefeesharing.IfyouhaveawebsiteornewsletterandwouldliketobeconsideredforinclusionintheMauldinEconomicsaffiliateprogram,pleasegoto http://affiliates.pubrm.net/signup/me.Likewise,fromtimetotimeMauldinEconomicsmayengageinaffiliateprogramsofferedbyothercompanies,thoughcorporatepolicyfirmlydictatesthatsuchagreementswillhavenoinfluenceonanyproductorservicerecommendations,noralterthepricingthatwouldotherwisebeavailableinabsence of such an agreement. As always, it is important that you do your own due diligence before transacting anybusinesswithanyfirm,foranyproductorservice.

© Copyright 2013 by Mauldin Economics, LLC.