Bastos a 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_room_105
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Transcript of Bastos a 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_room_105
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Do ENSO modeling discrepancies affect the climate-carbon
feedback?
Ana Bastos
Célia M. Gouveia, Ricardo M. Trigo
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Land-sink: present and future
Friedlingstein et al. 2014 J. Clim.
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Land-sink: present and future
Cox et al. 2013 Nature
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Land-sink and ENSO
NOAA
Impacts of DJF ENSO
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Land-sink and ENSO
Bastos et al. 2013 JGR - Biogeosciences
Land CO2 uptake from CDIAC
Multiv. ENSO index
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ENSO in CMIP5
Bellenger et al. 2014
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ENSO in CMIP5
Bellenger et al. 2014
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Pacific SST variability in ESMs
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Nino 3.4 from ESMs
1) Variance explained 2) Amplitude 3) Frequency metric 4) Spatial configuration
ENSO e
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Land CO2 uptake in ESMs
NBP e
Land-sink metric
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Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
Land-sink metric vs ENSO metric
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Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
SST variance explained by ENSO
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Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
NBP variance and ENSO amplitude
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Remarks
The discrepancies in the ENSO characteristics affect to some extent the representation of the global land CO2 sink; The models with bigger deviations from the reference land CO2 sink are the ones in which ENSO has a stronger contribution to SST variability in the Pacific… … and errors in the variability of the land-sink seem to be related to errors in the amplitude of modeled ENSO; Further research to investigate how the discrepancies in the ENSO signal affect convection and precipitation patterns in the tropical/sub-tropical regions within the ESMs.