ameren EEI_May_2008

30
investing for our future. 1 EEI Annual Finance Meeting May 21, 2008

Transcript of ameren EEI_May_2008

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EEIAnnual Finance Meeting

May 21, 2008

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Regulation G StatementAmeren has presented certain information in this presentation on a diluted cents per share basis. These diluted per share amounts reflect certain factors that directly impact Ameren’s total earnings per share. The core earnings per share (non-GAAP) and core earnings per share guidance (non-GAAP) exclude one or more of the following: costs related to severe January 2007 storms, abnormal weather, the earnings impact of the settlement agreement among parties in Illinois for comprehensive electric rate relief and customer assistance, the reversal of accruals made in 2006 for low-income energy assistance and energy efficiency program funding commitments in Illinois, a March 2007 FERC order, which retroactively adjusted prior years’ regional transmission organization costs, and net mark-to-market gains or losses from nonqualifying hedges. Ameren uses core earnings internally for financial planning and for analysis of performance. Ameren also uses core earnings as primary performance measurements when communicating with analysts and investors regarding our earnings results and outlook, as the company believes it allows it to more accurately compare the company’s ongoing performance across periods.In providing consolidated and segment core earnings guidance (non-GAAP), there could be differences between core earnings (non-GAAP) and earnings prepared in accordance with GAAP for certain items, such as the 2007 Illinois electric settlement and net mark-to market gains or losses from nonqualifying hedges. Except for the Illinois settlement, Ameren is not able to estimate the impact, if any, on future GAAP earnings of these items.

Forward-looking StatementsAmeren’s earnings guidance assumes normal weather and is subject to, among other things, regulatory decisions and legislative actions, plant operations, energy market and economic conditions, severe storms, unusual or otherwise unexpected gains or losses and other risks and uncertainties outlined in Ameren’s Forward-looking Statements in its news releases and in the Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors sections in its periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Cautionary Statements

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UEIP

CIPS

CILCO

Ameren Introduction

● Regional electric and gas utility• Missouri regulated generation,

transmission and delivery business

• Illinois regulated transmission and delivery businesses

• Non-rate-regulated generation business

● NYSE-listed under AEE• Market cap. ~ $9.5 billion• Component of the S&P 500

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Investment Highlights

● Focused on the Basics - the generation of electricity, and the delivery of electricity and natural gas

● Strong EPS growth prospects

● Strong, sustainable dividend• Current yield of ~5.5%

• Focused on future dividend growth

● Commitment to conservative financial management

● Attractive, risk-adjusted long-term total return potential

● Strong underlying value/straight-forward strategy to deliver shareholder value

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Ameren’s Business Plan

● Achieve operational excellence in all aspects of our business

● Improve our customer service, satisfaction and image

● Demonstrate environmentalleadership

● Improve regulatory frameworks andreturns

● Optimize non-rate-regulated generation business

● Maximize the value of our shareholders’ investment

Highcustomer

satisfaction

Meaningfulinvestmentin servingcustomers

Fairreturn

on investment

High qualityservice

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Financial Outlook● Near-term regulatory lag

• Rising cost environment (O&M and capital)• Fuel• Reliability projects• Environmental projects• Depreciation• Finance costs

• No significant rate adjustments until late 2008 and early 2009

● Significant longer-term earnings growth opportunities

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Financial Outlook OpportunitiesRegulated Businesses

● Significant longer-term earnings growth

● Regulated rates reflecting more current costs

• Rate cases filed in Illinois and Missouri

● Increasing rate base investment

● Earning fair returns in regulated operations

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Current Regulated Returns Support Earnings Growth

● Missouri Regulated Operations(a)

2007 Core (non-GAAP) ROE = 9%Estimated 2008 Core (non-GAAP) ROE = 7%

• Allowed return in last rate case was 10.2%. Every 1% equals approximately $50 million of revenues

● Illinois Regulated Operations(b)

2007 Core (non-GAAP) ROE = 5%Estimated 2008 Core (non-GAAP) ROE = 4%

• Allowed return in last rate case was 10%. Every 1% equals approximately $27 million of revenues

(a) Based on actual and projected financial results excluding non-GAAP items(b) Based on actual and projected financial results excluding non-GAAP items and

impact of goodwill associated with CILCORP and Illinois Power acquisitions

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$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Regulated Investment Plans Support Earnings Growth

Rate Base

Illinois

Missouri

MissouriElectric(a) $5,900Gas(b) 218

Subtotal $6,118

Illinois(b)

Distribution $2,120Transmission 245Gas 928

Subtotal $3,293

TOTAL $9,411(a) At June 30, 2008 (est.) as submitted in current

rate case filing(b) At December 31, 2007(c) At December 31, 2006, as submitted in current

rate case filings

Rate Base Growth(Issued and effective as of January 17, 2008)

($ in Millions)

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Illinois Rate Filings● Illinois electric and gas delivery service rate cases filed November 2,

2007• Decision by end of September 2008

● Current requested revenue increase is $220 million• 11% ROE; 50% to 53% equity

● Requested rider rate-making mechanisms for electric infrastructure investment and gas decoupling• Withdrew request for bad debt expense rider in rebuttal testimony

● ICC staff revenue increase recommendation of $87 million• 10.7% ROE recommended. Modifications to capital structure• Recommended disallowances include certain A&G costs, plant additions,

and post-test year reliability expenditures• Rider mechanism recommendations

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Missouri Rate Case Filing● Electric rate case filed on April 4, 2008

• Decision by March 2009

● Requested electric revenue increase of $251 million• 10.9% ROE; 51% equity

● Increase driven by higher costs and increased investment• Utilized test year ended March 31, 2008

● Requested implementation of fuel and purchased power cost recovery mechanism• Did not pursue environmental cost recovery mechanism

• Expect changes to recently adopted rules to be considered by MoPSC

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Financial Outlook OpportunitiesNon-rate-regulated Generation

● Position non-rate-regulated business for earnings growth

• Improving plant performance

• Effective marketing, trading and hedging

• Environmental compliance

● Areas significantly impacting future earnings results include future power, capacity and fuel prices

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Q1 2008 Earnings Reconciliation2007 GAAP Earnings per Share

2007 severe storm-related costsFERC order – MISO chargesIllinois contribution plan terminationNet mark-to-market losses

2007 Core Earnings per Share (Non-GAAP)Missouri rate cases (margin and expense)Illinois rate redesignOther electric and gas marginsWeather (estimate)Fuel pricesPlant operations and maintenanceDistribution system reliability Other labor and employee benefitsBad debt expensesDepreciation and amortizationOther taxesOther, net

2008 Core Earnings per Share (Non-GAAP)Illinois electric rate relief settlementNet mark-to-market gains

2008 GAAP Earnings per Share

$ 0.590.090.05

(0.05)0.02

$ 0.700.06

(0.05)0.160.03

(0.09)(0.02)(0.06)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)(0.05)

$ 0.64(0.03)0.05

$ 0.66

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2007 GAAP Earnings per Share 2007 severe storm-related costsIllinois electric rate relief settlement, netFERC order – MISO charges2007 Core Earnings per Share (non-GAAP)Missouri 2007 rate cases (margin and expense)Other electric and gas marginsWeather (estimate)Fuel pricesCallaway refueling and maintenance outagePlant operations and maintenanceDistribution system reliabilityOther labor and employee benefitsDepreciation and amortizationDilution and financing, netOther taxesOther, net

2008 Core EPS Guidance Range (non-GAAP)Illinois electric rate relief settlement2008 GAAP EPS Guidance Range

$2.980.090.210.06

$3.340.090.77

(0.08) (0.40)0.06

(0.19)(0.22)(0.06)(0.06)(0.13)(0.05)(0.07)

$2.80 – $3.20(0.12)

$2.68 – $3.08

2008 Earnings Guidance

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(a) The 12 cents per share earnings impact of the settlement agreement among parties in Illinois for comprehensive electric rate relief and customer assistance and net mark-to market gains or losses from nonqualifying hedges are excluded from non-GAAP guidance.

2008 Core EPS Segment Guidance

Expected Segment Contribution to Earnings per ShareMissouri Regulated $1.20 – $1.30Illinois Regulated 0.30 – 0.40Non-Rate-Regulated Generation 1.30 – 1.502008 Core EPS Guidance Range (Non-GAAP)(a) $2.80 – $3.20

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Financial Objectives● Targeting 4% to 6% average non-GAAP EPS growth from

normalized 2007 base to 2010• Driven primarily by regulated business growth• Goal of ~$4 per share by 2011 and higher in 2012

● Overall percentage of earnings contribution by regulated businesssegments forecasted to increase and approximate current annual dividend by the end of 2010

● Focused on providing a strong, sustainable dividend• Current yield of ~5.5%• Cash flows do not support near-term change• Focus on future dividend growth

● Targeting long-term total annual shareholder return of ~10%

Bottom line: strong underlying valueStraight-forward strategy to deliver value

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GAAP Non-GAAP

Non-GAAP$3.34

GAAP$2.98 GAAP

$2.68 - $3.08

Long-Range EPS Targets

~$3.70

>$4.00

Weather-Normalized$3.24

Non-GAAP$2.80 - $3.20

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Appendix

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Ameren Segments

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● 1.2 million electric and 127,000 gas customers • Diverse electric revenue mix

● 10,000 MW generation• Low-cost 7,000 MW baseload

coal-fired and nuclear fleet● 24,000 square miles

• 2,900 miles of electric transmission lines

• 32,000 miles of electric distribution lines

● 3,300 employees● Residential rates approximately 40%

below national average Atla

nta

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nd

Was

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Det

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Mia

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Dal

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San

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St.L

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0.03

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

0.15

0.17

0.19

2007 Electric Revenue Mix

44%38%

18%

Residential Commercial Industrial

Average Residential Electricity Prices (2006)

Source: Bureau of Labor statistics Assumes UE’s 2007 rate increase was in effect in 2006

Missouri Regulated

19¢17¢15¢13¢11¢9¢7¢5¢3¢

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2007 Margin Mix

71%

29%Electric

Gas

Ameren Illinois Utilities

● Regulated transmission and distribution company• Owns no generation

● 1.2 million electric and 830,000 gas customers

● 44,000 square miles• 4,490 miles of electric transmission lines• 45,000 miles of electric distribution lines• 17,900 miles of natural gas mains

● 2,300 employees● Current bundled electric rates approximate

national average

CILCO

CIPSIP

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Non-Rate-Regulated Generation

● Operate power plants• Three legal entities

● Market power and related products

● 6,300 MW generation• Low-cost 4,500 MW baseload

coal-fired fleet

● 1,100 employees

Duck Creek330 MW

Coal – 1976

Edwards745 MW

Coal – 1960CTGs

1,140 MWGas – 2000-01

Hutsonville150 MW

Coal – 1953

Coffeen900 MW

Coal – 1965

Newton1,210 MW

Coal – 1977

Joppa – 80%1,000 MW

Coal – 1953

Grand Tower CTG510 MW

Gas – 2001

Meredosia445 MW

Coal/Oil – 1948

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References

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$14 $15 $17$19 $21 $23

2008 2009 2010

Fuel CostsForecasted numbers are issued and effective as of January 17, 2008

● Fuel costs expected to continue to increase

● Estimates include all fuel costs (coal, nuclear, natural gas, diesel, emission allowances and transportation)

● Regulated costs are assumed to be recoverable through a cost recovery mechanism beginning in 2009

(a) Includes contracted and estimated cost increase

Fuel Costs per MWh(a)

94% 86%

54%

98%

72%

16%

2008 2009 2010

Regulated Missouri Non-Rate-Regulated

Estimated Costs Hedged

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Non-rate-regulated Generation Positioned for Earnings GrowthForecasted numbers are issued and effective as of January 17, 2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Baseload Generation (Megawatthours)

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010

Net Capacity Factor

Equivalent Availability Factor

Baseload Capacity and Availability Factors

ActualForecasted

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Hedged Power Sales (excludes capacity-only revenues)

60%45%

86%

2008 2009 2010

Solid Market FundamentalsForecasted numbers are issued and effective as of January 17, 2008

● Generation hedging policy designed to reduce risk, but allow for market upside

● Energy prices• ATC forward curve for 2008 to 2010

ranged from $48/MWh to $54/MWhat time of January 17, 2008 guidance

• Fundamentals support energy prices strengthening

● Expect continued development and tightening of MISO capacity market• Targeting to sell ~75%

of capacity through 2010• MISO prices are well below PJM

$50 MWh

Hedged Capacity Sales

28%

18%

10%37%10%22%

2008 2009 2010Embedded in Full Requirements Contract Capacity Only

$52 MWh

$54 MWh

Target

Range

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 Illinois Electric Rate Redesign

● Illinois electric rate redesign will result in quarterly changes in earnings per share, but no annual change 5¢

10¢

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Ameren CalendarIllinois

Ameren Illinois utilities surrebuttal filed May 27, 2008Written prehearing motions May 29, 2008Evidentiary hearings June 9-13, 2008Briefs July 2008Proposed delivery service order August 2008 (estimate)Final delivery service order issued September 2008

Missouri Supplemental direct testimony to

submit actual data for budgeted End of June 2008 (estimate)MoPSC Staff and intervenor testimony filed August 2008 (estimate)Rebuttal testimony filed by all parties September 2008 (estimate)Surrebuttal testimony filed by all parties October 2008 (estimate)Hearings November 2008Briefs January 2009 (estimate)Rate order issued February 2009New rates effective March 2009

Investor RelationsQ2 2008 quiet period Begins July 7, 2008Q3 2008 quiet period Begins October 7, 2008

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Major Regulatory Proceedings

IllinoisWeb site www.icc.illinois.gov/e-docketCase # 07-0527

– Interim procurement planCase # 07-0585, 07-0586, 07-0587

– Electric delivery services rate casesCase # 07-0588, 07-0589, 07-0590

– Gas delivery services rate casesMissouriWeb site www.efis.psc.mo.gov/mpsc/DocketSheet.htmlCase # ER-2008-0318

– Electric rate case

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Investor Relations Contacts

● Bruce Steinke 314-554-2574• Vice President & Controller [email protected]

Manager – Investor Relations

● Theresa Nistendirk 314-206-0693• Managing Supervisor [email protected]

Investor Relations