Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

December 2014

Includes additional analyses by:

main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider

© Amárach Research


A Mixed Year End

Our final edition of the Economic Recovery

Index for 2014 finds Irish consumers at

something of a crossroads – the mood is a lot

more positive than even a year ago, but hasn’t

improved much in the past few months.

We have added in a more detailed analysis

this month showing differences in outlook

among customers of the main banks,

supermarkets, mobile phone networks and

electricity suppliers to help you plan for 2015.

We’re seeing some positive trends – reduced

price sensitivity, for example – but also some

worrying data, such as the incidence of

loneliness, especially among under 25s.

But it is Christmas, a season for looking back

in gratitude and forward in hope, so do enjoy

the break and we’ll see you in 2015.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

December 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 2nd-10th December 2014 inclusive.

See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-December-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has remained near its record level:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, December 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Ju

ly

Au

g Se

pt

Oct

N

ov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

M

ar

Ap

r M

ay

Jun

e

July

A

ug

Sep

t O

ct

No

v D

ec

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Mar

A

pr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g Se

pt

Oct

N

ov

Dec

Ja

n '1

2

Feb

M

ar

Ap

r M

ay

Jun

e

July

A

ug

Sep

t O

ct

No

v D

ec

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Mar

A

pr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g Se

pt

Oct

N

ov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

M

ar

Ap

r M

ay

Jun

e

July

A

ug

Sep

t O

ct

No

v D

ec

The ERI has leveled off in the last three months of 2014…


A Matter of Measurement

Nov ’14: 17% Dec ’14: 16%

Nov ’14: 29% Dec ’14: 31%

Nov ’14: 37% Dec ’14: 38%

Nov ’14: 16% Dec ’14: 13%

Nov ’14: 2% Dec ’14: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3

Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0

Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1

Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5

Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2

Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9

Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9

the ERI is over three times higher than in December 2010



(by sex, age, Dublin, class)


December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 15% 16% 15% 12% 20% 18% 14% 13% 11% 20%


is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 29% 31% 30% 30% 32% 29% 29% 30% 30%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 33% 39% 31% 36% 33% 34% 41% 34% 40% 33%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

13% 15% 10% 12% 13% 14% 9% 14% 18% 15% 11%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 2% * 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

ERI Score 37.9 39.3 36.5 34.1 39.7 36.6 34.3 41.0 41.7 41.5 34.7

Progress Along Recovery Path – I


Progress Along Recovery Path – II


(by main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider)


December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of

Ireland

Voda

fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi

Electric

Ireland Airtricity

1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222


in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 14% 21% 18% 17% 14%


is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 28% 31% 34% 25% 28% 32% 33% 29% 30%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 33% 41% 39% 38% 36% 38% 25% 36% 38% 38%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

13% 16% 12% 12% 9% 18% 14% 15% 10% 12% 14%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 2% * 1% 1% 0 2% 2% 0 1% 1%

ERI Score 37.9 39.4 38.5 39.2 36.9 39.5 40.7 35.7 35.5 38.2 39.7

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Dec-09 43 45 51 56

Dec-10 23 34 41 45

Dec-11 22 33 39 43

Dec-12 26 32 39 43

Dec-13 37 40 49 43

Nov-14 40 38 52 39

Dec-14 40 42 52 43

people remain quite resilient at the end of 2014…


Comfortable Year End – I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 7% 10% 15% 17% 16% 8%

Slightly Agree 30% 27% 33% 35% 27% 25% 18% 41% 29% 35% 26%

Neither/Nor 16% 19% 13% 14% 21% 23% 13% 10% 15% 15% 17%

Slightly Disagree 21% 20% 23% 21% 20% 22% 26% 20% 22% 20% 23%

Strongly Disagree 18% 20% 15% 13% 15% 23% 28% 12% 14% 12% 23%


Comfortable Year End – II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank etc):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222

Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 17% 10% 11% 13%

Slightly Agree 30% 32% 34% 30% 25% 35% 33% 32% 27% 32% 31%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 12% 17% 18% 18% 16% 13% 19% 15% 19%




Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Dec-09 17 26 57 29

Dec-10 11 23 58 21

Dec-11 14 27 56 22

Dec-12 15 22 54 22

Dec-13 22 26 55 26

Nov-14 26 24 54 28

Dec-14 26 23 55 23

there has been a sharp fall back in % willing to borrow


More Relaxed – I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524

Strongly Agree 6% 6% 6% 10% 9% 5% 4% 5% 8% 7% 5%

Slightly Agree 19% 19% 20% 23% 20% 19% 14% 21% 22% 22% 17%

Neither/Nor 22% 22% 21% 14% 22% 24% 19% 23% 22% 23% 21%




More Relaxed – II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222

Strongly Agree 6% 8% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8% 6% 7%

Slightly Agree 19% 20% 21% 20% 23% 20% 21% 18% 16% 19% 22%

Neither/Nor 22% 23% 21% 18% 22% 22% 22% 27% 21% 25% 17%




Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy the

lowest price

products or

services

I am always on the

lookout for

opportunities to

switch to cheaper

suppliers

I have more choice

than before when it

comes to products

and services

I always buy Irish

when I can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48

Aug-14 56 71 60 51

Sep-14 55 74 61 53

Oct-14 56 68 58 51

Nov-14 58 67 57 52

Dec-14 47 64 57 50

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

0

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

A

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

1

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

A

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

2

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

A

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

3

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

A

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

4

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

A

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

0

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

1

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

2

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

3

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

4

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524

Enjoyment 50% 49% 50% 43% 48% 44% 41% 62% 50% 52% 47%

Happiness 46% 42% 50% 43% 47% 41% 39% 53% 43% 48% 43%

Stress 40% 36% 44% 51% 40% 45% 45% 28% 37% 42% 38%

Worry 33% 31% 34% 37% 35% 40% 35% 23% 34% 32% 34%

Anxiety 26% 24% 28% 36% 28% 24% 29% 19% 27% 25% 26%

Physical Pain 21% 17% 25% 18% 20% 17% 24% 25% 18% 18% 24%

Boredom 20% 20% 19% 36% 25% 16% 21% 10% 23% 19% 20%

Sadness 19% 17% 22% 28% 19% 19% 17% 18% 18% 20% 19%

Loneliness 16% 15% 17% 26% 19% 17% 14% 10% 17% 16% 16%

Anger 13% 14% 12% 16% 17% 13% 10% 10% 13% 13% 12%

Fear 9% 9% 8% 13% 12% 11% 6% 5% 10% 9% 9%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:


The Mood of the Nation – IV



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222

Enjoyment 50% 51% 52% 50% 52% 43% 48% 52% 51% 50% 52%

Happiness 46% 47% 43% 50% 46% 43% 44% 42% 49% 46% 48%

Stress 40% 36% 41% 41% 39% 46% 38% 42% 42% 40% 36%

Worry 33% 28% 40% 36% 34% 36% 33% 31% 30% 34% 29%

Anxiety 26% 25% 28% 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 29% 24% 23%

Physical Pain 21% 17% 23% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 22% 23% 20%

Boredom 20% 21% 19% 18% 24% 29% 20% 20% 22% 18% 18%

Sadness 19% 18% 20% 22% 20% 15% 19% 17% 18% 18% 21%

Loneliness 16% 16% 18% 17% 18% 19% 20% 14% 15% 16% 13%

Anger 13% 11% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 14%

Fear 9% 7% 10% 11% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 13%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Ready for Recovery?

Our survey at the end of 2014 finds Irish

consumers in a ‘fragile’ mood, with many still

waiting for the recovery to show up in their

bank accounts.

Emotional resilience remains strong – though

note the worrying level of loneliness among

under 25s – and debt concerns prevail.

This is the last edition of the Economic

Recovery Index for 2014, so we wish all our

readers a Happy Christmas and a Peaceful

and Prosperous New Year.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2014

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