Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2016
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Transcript of Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2016
1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
November 2016: focus on Brexit
2Economic Recovery Index
Less Dark
It’s six years – November 2010 – since our
Economic Recovery Index reached its
lowest point ever: just as the IMF arrived.
We’ve seen a huge improvement since –
illustrated in this month’s report – and there
is much to be grateful for in that regard.
In addition to our regular update, we have
also included a special commentary on
Brexit: the sources of uncertainty may have
changed, but there’s still plenty of
uncertainty going into 2017.
3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to November 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 19th to 25th November 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was at the lowest point just six
years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010
Economic Recovery Index
5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
Our Economic Recovery Index remains flat, showing little change since late 2015
6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8
Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3
Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3
Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6
Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6
Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9
Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7
Oct-16 14 30 33 21 2 42.5
Nov-16 16 30 33 18 3 42.0
November 2010 was the lowest point in the past seven years
Consumer Impact
8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to
emphasise the positive and didn’t think the
recession would last so long!
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and some very lows) in
terms of the mood of the nation and the
impact on consumer spending, borrowing and
saving intentions.
We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the
part of the Irish people when it comes to
‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-
economic uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.
9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Nov-09 41 45 51 52
Nov-10 18 32 33 45
Nov-11 23 34 42 45
Nov-12 27 34 44 43
Nov-13 36 42 49 44
Nov-14 40 38 52 39
Nov-15 43 47 56 45
Oct-16 35 44 55 41
Nov-16 36 46 55 43
Economic sentiment has remained relatively unchanged over the past 12 months
10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Nov-09 16 27 62 28
Nov-10 11 24 50 20
Nov-11 15 26 55 23
Nov-12 16 25 53 22
Nov-13 22 24 54 26
Nov-14 26 24 54 28
Nov-15 31 27 54 27
Oct-16 32 29 55 32
Nov-16 33 28 58 33
Though consumer sentiment is picking up – albeit from low bases
11Economic Recovery Index
Price Insensitive?
Crucially, consumers are becoming less price focused
Brexit
13Economic Recovery Index
Impact of Brexit
We have been keeping a close eye on Brexit
from the viewpoint of Irish consumers (and
Irish marketers and sales leaders).
This month we look at the bigger, political
picture for Brexit through the eyes of Irish
citizens.
The following charts summarise the findings,
we will revisit the topic of Brexit next year (and
possibly for several more years to come!)
14Economic Recovery Index
Brexit – I
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
Brexit is expected to have a negative impact on all our relations
15Economic Recovery Index
Brexit – II
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
Two thirds of adults would vote ‘Remain’ in the event of an Irexit Referendum
16Economic Recovery Index
Brexit – III
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
Less than half would want continued partition with NI outside the EU
Mood of the Nation
18Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress and
anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever,
but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to
November 2016.
19Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2016
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Ap
r '0
9M
ay
Ju
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
0F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
1F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
2F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
3F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
4F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
5F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
6F
eb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
nJu
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
20Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2016
Source: Amárach Research, November 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
0
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
1
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
2
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
3
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
4
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
5
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n'1
6
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
21Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2016
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 460 540
Enjoyment 44% 44% 45% 48% 30% 38% 45% 58% 45% 43%
Happiness 43% 41% 45% 44% 37% 42% 39% 51% 44% 42%
Stress 37% 32% 41% 55% 40% 40% 30% 23% 38% 36%
Worry 30% 25% 35% 42% 29% 35% 23% 24% 28% 32%
Anxiety 25% 23% 28% 33% 28% 26% 23% 19% 26% 25%
Physical Pain 21% 16% 25% 17% 18% 21% 17% 28% 18% 23%
Boredom 20% 19% 21% 26% 25% 19% 16% 17% 19% 21%
Sadness 17% 16% 18% 28% 14% 20% 16% 11% 15% 19%
Loneliness 13% 11% 15% 21% 16% 11% 11% 9% 12% 14%
Anger 12% 12% 12% 19% 11% 13% 10% 9% 10% 14%
Fear 8% 7% 9% 10% 9% 9% 7% 6% 7% 9%
None of the above 9% 10% 8% 4% 12% 8% 14% 8% 9% 9%
Amárach Outlook
23Economic Recovery Index
Unfazed by Brexit
This is our fifth Post-Brexit Economic
Recovery Index and it seems that Irish
consumer sentiment has adjusted to the
new realities across the Irish Sea.
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
24Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
and join more than two dozen other
organisations using their own
customised planning dashboard.
http://getplanr.com/planr-data
Trends Report
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/