Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2017

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

March 2017


A Spring Step?

Our March report shows that Irish consumer

sentiment is in a cautious state: though none

of the key indicators have deteriorated,

several show a ‘wait & see’ attitude out

there.

That said, as we track our Economic

Recovery Index in Q1 2017 there are good

signs of resilience and even buoyancy on

some measures, for example in relation to

‘buying Irish’.

The level of ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ is

still near its lowest level since we started

tracking back in April 2009: perhaps the

psychological impact of the recession is felt

at a lag?


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to March 2017.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 21st to 28th March 2017 inclusive.

See how bad it was at one of the lowest points

seven years ago:https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, March 2017

Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for over 18 months


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5

Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2

Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0

Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7

Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5

Mar-16 13 30 35 20 2 42.2

Feb-17 14 27 33 23 3 43.1

Mar-17 15 29 32 21 3 42.1

Our ERI is still below its level of a year ago

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of

the mood of the nation and the impact on

consumer spending, borrowing and saving

intentions.

We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part

of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting

on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic

uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Mar-10 42 43 54 55

Mar-11 25 36 48 47

Mar-12 30 40 50 48

Mar-13 30 40 44 47

Mar-14 37 40 49 45

Mar-15 40 40 48 40

Mar-16 37 44 52 44

Feb-17 38 47 53 43

Mar-17 35 41 51 40

With a flat ERI, other economic indicators have weakened as well


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Mar-10 18 25 61 30

Mar-11 13 23 58 23

Mar-12 18 29 55 24

Mar-13 19 27 53 25

Mar-14 23 24 58 26

Mar-15 26 27 51 24

Mar-16 28 25 55 26

Feb-17 37 33 55 40

Mar-17 30 30 56 36

February’s positive turn has been mostly reversed, though better than last year


The % preferring to buy Irish has remained consisted above half the population

Buying Irish

We’ve tracked sentiment towards buying Irish for four years and it looks like the decline in

the first two years has been more than reversed in the last two years:

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged: our levels of stress

and anger have fallen to their lowest levels

ever, but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to March

2017.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2017


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

0

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

1

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

2

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

3

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

4

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

5

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

6

Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan'1

7

Fe

b

Mar

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II


% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2017


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

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Dec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

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pt

Oct

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Dec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6F

eb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

7F

eb

Mar

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


% saying Yes: March 2017

TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

Enjoyment 47% 45% 48% 48% 39% 40% 49% 55% 48%

Happiness 45% 39% 50% 49% 42% 33% 43% 53% 43%

Stress 32% 30% 35% 43% 33% 29% 35% 26% 34%

Worry 24% 21% 27% 25% 29% 23% 26% 19% 25%

Anxiety 23% 19% 26% 34% 23% 21% 20% 18% 20%

Physical Pain 20% 18% 23% 19% 15% 17% 21% 27% 19%

Boredom 18% 17% 19% 31% 23% 16% 9% 11% 17%

Sadness 16% 12% 20% 22% 16% 12% 14% 15% 15%

Anger 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 15% 12% 9% 10%

Loneliness 12% 10% 14% 17% 13% 9% 11% 12% 10%

Fear 7% 8% 7% 11% 8% 8% 6% 4% 8%

Over 55s appear to be the most ‘positive’ cohort in Irish society

Amárach Outlook


Get Planning

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.

With Easter around the corner there’s lots

to be doing as 2017 gathers momentum.

For more on the ERI (including 8 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2017

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Transcript of Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2017