Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2017

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

January 2017: Focus on Grocery Shopping


New Year Priorities

January is always the month we take stock

of our finances and financial priorities – so

this month we look at our results with a

focus on where people do their main grocery

shopping.

As we track our Economic Recovery Index

going into 2017 there is troubling sign of

some weakening in sentiment.

No doubt as consumers become less certain

about the wider economy it will begin to

affect their spending and saving intentions

throughout 2017 – and we’ll keep you

posted as we measure what’s really going

on in future editions.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to January 2017.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 10th to 20th January 2017 inclusive.

See how bad it was at one of the lowest points

just seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, January 2017

Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for almost 18 months


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1

Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3

Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4

Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9

Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3

Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5

Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0

Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2

Jan-17 16 28 32 20 3 41.9

Our ERI has dipped below 42.0 for the first time since April 2016


ERI by Main Supermarket

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

Dunnes shoppers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook

TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl

The economic situation in

Ireland is getting worse15% 12% 18% 13% 14% 16%

The economic situation is bad

but has stabilized26% 23% 23% 36% 26% 31%

The economic situation is bad

but showing a few signs of

improvement

30% 30% 31% 34% 33% 24%

The economic situation is

getting better and showing

clear signs of improvement

19% 21% 20% 11% 18% 21%

The economic situation is

good and almost fully

recovered from the recession

3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3%

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of

the mood of the nation and the impact on

consumer spending, borrowing and saving

intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Jan-10 52 50 61 55

Jan-11 26 39 48 49

Jan-12 21 37 45 46

Jan-13 32 40 47 47

Jan-14 41 44 53 46

Jan-15 38 40 50 40

Jan-16 46 49 56 50

Dec-16 35 46 54 46

Jan-17 31 44 49 40

Overall optimism has fallen back strongly from its peak in April 2015


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jan-10 21 26 60 29

Jan-11 13 22 59 22

Jan-12 14 24 57 24

Jan-13 22 27 57 27

Jan-14 23 25 57 24

Jan-15 25 23 54 26

Jan-16 35 28 54 30

Dec-16 36 34 50 35

Jan-17 28 28 55 33

Last month’s spending intention indicator has fallen back to the same level a year ago


Spending Intentions by Main Supermarket

Agreement with statement: ‘I am more relaxed about spending money than I was

a few months ago’

Aldi shoppers are more likely to disagree they are ‘relaxed about spending’


Strongly Agree 8% 7% 10% 9% 5% 7%

Slightly Agree 20% 22% 17% 21% 23% 18%

Neither/Nor 30% 31% 33% 23% 27% 30%

Slightly Disagree 20% 20% 18% 24% 19% 23%

Strongly Disagree 19% 15% 20% 17% 24% 18%


Price Sensitivity by Main Supermarket

Agreement with statement: ‘I always buy the lowest price products or services’

Aldi shoppers are more driven by price considerations than others


Strongly Agree 22% 22% 17% 18% 28% 24%

Slightly Agree 31% 30% 28% 24% 34% 34%

Neither/Nor 22% 21% 24% 26% 20% 21%

Slightly Disagree 15% 18% 17% 17% 12% 14%

Strongly Disagree 5% 5% 9% 10% 3% 4%

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged: our levels of stress and

anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever,

but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to

January 2017.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

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Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II


% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

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Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


% saying Yes: January 2017


Happiness 46% 41% 49% 44% 47% 52%

Enjoyment 27% 28% 23% 18% 32% 28%

Stress 21% 18% 28% 14% 21% 24%

Worry 29% 32% 24% 22% 33% 28%

Anxiety 19% 20% 18% 15% 21% 21%

Physical Pain 33% 34% 30% 30% 38% 32%

Boredom 14% 12% 17% 7% 16% 15%

Sadness 46% 40% 49% 50% 47% 49%

Anger 10% 11% 8% 4% 15% 8%

Loneliness 23% 27% 22% 16% 26% 21%

Fear 15% 15% 12% 9% 16% 18%

None of the above 9% 14% 7% 13% 7% 6%

Lidl shoppers are the happiest citizens overall

Amárach Outlook


The Year Ahead

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.

Finally, we’d like to wish you a Happy New

Year from all of us in Amárach.

For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2017

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