Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

February 2016Focus on: Fuel Forecourt Brands

© Amárach Research


Balanced Recovery

Five years from its lowest ebb and our

Economic Recovery Index remains near its

peak since the start of 2016.

It hasn’t translated into the housing market –

as our update of an old metric reveals.

This month we’ve focused on the attitudes

and intentions of customers of Ireland’s fuel

forecourt brands, and we introduce a new

section in which we profile customers of

each provider on key measures such as

NPS, switching intentions & spend.

2016 has got off to a good start (despite the

political uncertainties!), let’s hope it gathers

momentum in the months ahead.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to February 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 15th to 22nd February 2016 inclusive.

See how bad it was six years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

Fuel Forecourt Brands

Customer Profile


Profile of Customers by: Main Fuel Forecourt Brand

Source: PlanR Database, February 2016

February 2016 TOTAL Topaz Applegreen Maxol Texaco

Sample 1002 265 217 89 76

Average spend

€ per month€101 €103 €101 €98 €106

Net Promoter Score -10% -16% 3% -14% -34%

% likely to switch fuel

forecourt in next 6 months21% 24% 15% 23% 30%

% ever recommended their

main fuel forecourt brand51% 57% 44% 53% 67%

Lifetime number of forecourt

brand relationships5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.8

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has levelled off after reaching its highest level ever at the start of 2016:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, February 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'16

The ERI is still below the ‘halfway mark’ (50) in February 2016


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7

Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0

Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8

Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7

Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4

Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0

Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4

There has been a sea-change in economic outlook since February 2012


Economic Outlook

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement by mobile network:



1002 265 217 89 76

The economic situation in Ireland

is getting worse12% 7% 13% 12% 13%

The economic situation is bad but

has stabilized27% 31% 20% 32% 34%

The economic situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement34% 33% 41% 41% 28%

The economic situation is getting

better and showing clear signs of

improvement20% 25% 22% 13% 20%

The economic situation is good

and almost fully recovered from the

recession3% 3% 1% 1% 2%

ERI Score 43.4 46.2 44.6 39.8 40.6

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Feb-10 42 47 56 53

Feb-11 24 37 44 45

Feb-12 26 41 44 49

Feb-13 27 36 43 42

Feb-14 38 41 52 47

Feb-15 42 42 53 45

Jan-16 46 49 56 50

Feb-16 41 44 55 46

Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ has fallen back from its peak level in January


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Feb-10 18 26 62 29

Feb-11 14 27 61 24

Feb-12 17 29 57 26

Feb-13 16 26 54 24

Feb-14 22 25 58 24

Feb-15 27 28 53 26

Jan-16 35 28 54 30

Feb-16 30 26 56 26

Spending sentiment remains high, but below its recent peak


Housing Demand


House buying attitudes have fallen markedly since last survey in February 2013

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I think now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to”

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-16


Fuelling Spending

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by fuel forecourt):

“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



1002 265 217 89 76

Strongly Agree 8% 12% 7% 5% 10%

Slightly Agree 22% 22% 20% 30% 19%

Neither/Nor 22% 20% 25% 23% 26%

Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 25% 27% 25%

Strongly Disagree 22% 21% 23% 15% 19%


Fuel Pricey

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by fuel forecourt):

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



1002 265 217 89 76

Strongly Agree 22% 22% 23% 30% 17%

Slightly Agree 29% 29% 30% 29% 27%

Neither/Nor 22% 21% 21% 16% 28%

Slightly Disagree 16% 17% 17% 20% 10%

Strongly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 6% 15%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2016


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Ju

n

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

4F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

5F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

6F

eb

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Amárach Outlook


2016 Beginning

2015 has been a good year when it comes to

tracking the recovery through our Economic

Recovery Index.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress

into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about

Ireland’s consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

Trends Report

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2016

Marketing

Transcript of Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2016