ABN AMRO Bank “A full house of opportunities” Rijkman Groenink Chairman of the Managing Board...
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ABN AMRO Bank
“A full house of opportunities”
Rijkman GroeninkChairman of the Managing Board
Monte Carlo,10 June 2004
2
Overview of presentation
ABN AMRO 2001-2004, a true transformation
ABN AMRO may use M&A as an effective revenue enhancer
Concluding remarks
ABN AMRO 2001- 2004, a true transformation
4
We have successfully restructured the bank during a sharp downturn
Our main focus has been to
increase Economic Value :
– use MfV to frame and discipline decision making
– restructure our businesses, in particular BU NL and WCS
– reallocate capital from WCS into C&CC
– restore capital position
– improve Economic ProfitNet profit excluding extraordinary items in accordance with Dutch Gaap
ROE is calculated on the basis of reported net profit (inlcuding extraordinary items - Dutch GAAP)
EUR mln
28.5%
16.9%
23.7%26.5%
20.5%22.6%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Net profit Return on Equity
5
The result: solid positions in markets with good growth potential
All figures based on Brazilian GAAP
TOP 4 PRIVATE BANK IN BRAZIL
TOP RANKING US REGIONAL
FRANCHISE IN THE MID-WEST
EUROPEAN PRIVATE BANKING:# 1 Netherlands# 3 France and Germany
Top 6 US mortgage originatorTop 7 US mortgage servicer
WCS European franchise with top 3 Global Trade and Cash & Payment platform
NETHERLANDS:Top commercial bank for large SME and affluent customers
INDIA Growing mass affluent retail franchises (12 branches)
Source: SNL financials
6
Further value creation will be driven by improvements in efficiency
Revenues of main US and European banks in 2003
Operating efficiency of main US and European banks in 2003
Source: Bloomberg, Annual accounts, ABN AMRO research. EUR1 = USD1.26; EUR1 = GBP 0.71; EUR1 = CHF1.56 NB: Numbers adjusted for goodwill amortisation
EUR bln
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Citig
roup
JPM
* One
BoA-
Flee
t
HSB
C
RBS
Gro
up
UBS
Deu
tsch
eBa
nk
ABN
AM
RO
Mor
gan
Stan
ley
Barc
lays
BNP
Parib
as
Cre
dit S
uiss
e
Mer
rill L
ynch
Socié
téG
énér
ale
SCH
Cré
dit
Ager
icole
SA
Gol
dman
Sach
s
Uni
cred
itoIta
liano
HVB
Gro
up
BBVA
Lehm
anBr
othe
rs
Com
mer
zban
k
Dex
ia
Stan
Cha
rt
42.0%47.2% 51.3% 52.8% 53.9% 54.5% 55.6% 56.4% 58.4% 58.7% 59.2% 62.9% 63.0% 65.3% 67.0% 67.6% 68.2% 69.4% 70.6% 71.8% 71.9% 73.3% 75.2%
81.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
RBS
Gro
up
BBVA
HSB
C
BoA-
Flee
t
Stan
Cha
rt
Uni
cred
itoIta
liano
Citig
roup
SCH
Barc
lays
JPM
* One
Dex
ia
BNP
Parib
as
HVB
Gro
up
Cré
dit
Ager
icole
SA
ABN
AM
RO
Socié
téG
énér
ale
Mor
gan
Stan
ley
Gol
dman
Sach
s*
Lehm
anBr
othe
rs*
Cre
dit S
uiss
e
Mer
rill L
ynch
*
Com
mer
zban
k
UBS
Deu
tsch
eBa
nk
(*) Provisioning for loan losses not available and included in revenues as a negative item
7
Substantial cost synergies can still be extracted across SBUs
All restructuring programmes to date concentrated on establishing BUs and on improving their returns
Group Shared Services was established in January 2004 with the objective to optimise cross-(S)BU cost synergies whilst maintaining operational excellence
Benchmarking against top-quartile Banks conducted on technology spending revealed significant potential. Additional sources of savings in procurement and HR
Current estimates point to at least EUR 500 mln annual savings from 2007 onwards. Targets will be communicated with the Q2 04 results
8
Revenue growth is equally critical to improving operating efficiency
Growth in commercial banking
revenues, especially in US and
Brazil, driven by economic
recovery and our relationship
approach
Growth in retail banking
revenues in Asia, due to rapid
growth of a consumer and
increasingly wealthy middle
class in India and Greater
China
69.4%
68.3%
71.9%
73.1%
71.5%
67.0%
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
63%
65%
67%
69%
71%
73%
75%
Revenue (EUR mln) Costs (EUR mln)
Efficiency ratio (%)
9
Our business mix can deliver satisfactory organic revenue growth
BU NL : increase cross-selling
to mass-affluent customers
BU NA : top ranking
commercial banking franchise
and market growth
BU Brazil : strong platform
geared for economic growth
NGM : fast development of the
mass-affluent retail franchises
PCAM : top quality brand
names and growth of onshore
market
WCS : Investments in FM and
WoCa - ROE up to 15%-20%
through the cycle
Cross-SBU synergies : 20
action tracks, 5 of which under
the direct responsibility of the
Managing Board
ABN AMRO may use M&A as an effective revenue enhancer
11
Proceeds from recent disposals will strengthen our capital ratios
Proceeds will increase Tier 1 and Core Tier 1 ratio by 110 basis points(1), well above stated targets for 2004 of 8.25% and 6.0% respectively
It is the intention to neutralise the dilutive effect of the stock dividend. For 2004, this is dependent upon the further strengthening of our capital ratios subsequent to the disposal of Leaseplan
We increase our minimum targets for 2004 to a Tier 1 ratio of 8.5% and a Core Tier 1 of 7%
As a result, only limited excess capital will be available(1) : Ceteris paribus
12
The proceeds also enable to enhance our C&CC platform
We are a multi-regional bank focused on consumer and commercial banking, supported by our international wholesale franchise
Our strategy therefore aims at further strengthening our consumer and commercial banking franchises
This can be achieved by a combination of organic growth and M&A
13
After Sudameris, all Brazil needs is economic growth
BU Brazil, as an emerging market exposure, is one of the growth engines of the portfolio
No further acquisitions needed or desired after the Sudameris deal (BRL 300 mln annual costs savings) from 2005 onwards
The growth potential of the franchise is driven by its exposure to the South East region and to the above market penetration of the mass affluent client base
The catalyst for value creation : economic growth fostered by structural reforms and sustainable low interest rates
14
Europe is unlikely to see any cross-border activity in the short term
In the short term, cross-border transactions are unlikely due to demanding premiums in comparison with potential synergies
In Italy, in-market consolidation is possible in the near-term. However, the position of ABN AMRO is in line with the terms and agreements of the shareholder pacts
Onshore Private Banking is an area of growth where potential is enhanced by the build-up of our European network of high-quality local franchises
15
In Asia, acquisitions could accelerate the already rapid growth
The Indian franchise is building up quickly within the limitations imposed by the regulatory framework
- Mass affluent franchise with 12 branches xin the main cities. Very high brand name recognition due to national mortgage operations
- Organic high growth strategy once local incorporation takes place
- In parallel, selective acquisitions (in the range of EUR 1 bln) could help speed up the development of the platform and of the brand name
In China, onshore activities are bound to develop- Our strategy is to make use of our city-bound banking license in
combination with our local Asset Management capabilities to expand our mass-affluent retail franchise
- Central processing capabilities are located in Taiwan. Small additions are possible in order to support the growth of the mainland activities
16
Organic growth in the US is a valid strategic option
Our US franchise has a very strong position in the Midwest.
The strength of the US franchise give us the option not to join the current consolidation phase. The franchise has a defendable and sustainable market share. It is well positioned for organic growth in the coming years, especially with the pick up in the commercial banking cycle
ABN AMRO is therefore in a position to stick to its MfV principles and has no reason to overpay for “strategic” considerations
17
Long term, regional consolidation might require us to expand our US franchise
The core skill and value driver of the US franchise is commercial banking
In the long run, cost efficiencies derived from scale might be necessary to compete with super regional players in commercial and retail banking
Acquisitions in an adjacent state would strengthen our regional commercial banking franchise and deliver revenue and cost synergies
18
Share Buy-Backs are an option Excess capital is a new phenomenon for ABN AMRO
Unlike a number of other European players we started from a relatively low capital base
The Managing Board considers that its main task on behalf of ABN AMRO’s shareholders is long term value creation by investing capital in attractive growth opportunities
In accordance with our capital discipline and with the capital ratio targets, we will give capital back to our shareholders, if no value creating opportunities can be found
Concluding remarks
20
Concluding remarks (1)
Strong capital base allows us to consider neutralising the dilutive effect of our stock dividend as a policy change
This also gives us the opportunity to optimise our business mix by further strengthening our consumer and commercial franchise
Deals should be value creative and should not exceed limited excess capital available
Focus is on accelerating organic growth potential in the US and in Asia
21
Concluding remarks (2)
Strong market position of the franchise in the US makes organic growth a valid strategic option
If no value creating opportunities can be found, we will consider share buy- backs