Climate change, food, and water security: critical issues and cooperative strategies in an age of increased risk

and uncertainty for South Asia

GWP – IWMI Initiative

A ‘Plan B’ for Food Security - The water variability connection

Colombo, February 24-25, 2011

Jan Lundqvist Senior scientific advisor

Question

Is the exclusive focus on increased production the best option to achieve food security?

Take home message

No --- It makes sense to develop a Plan B, a 9th MDG; reduce losses & waste by 50%

Mr Henry Kissinger at

First World Food Summit, 1974: (then Secretary of State, USA)

”No child will go to bed hungry

within ten years”

Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased

Utilization

Production

and for the

Undernourishment & overeating

1,400 mill overweight, 400 mill obese – numbers increasing

1,000 mill undernourished - numbers increasing?

(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)

Another 2 - 3 billion in a generation - with dreams

- with the right to sense development - much increased purchasing power

Demographic and GDP Trends

Population Urban GDP (billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp)

1800: (T. R. Malthus) < 1 913 (1820)

1900: 1.65 1950: just after WW2 2.5 7,006 2000: 6 3 56,593 (2005) 2050: ~ 9 ~ 6.5 193,318*) *) trend projection

Increase: 50% 125% 400% (2000 -2050) Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.

Socio-economic trends; Food supply, water & environmental footprints

Water footprint Food supply in China,

1961 - 2005

Source: Junguo Liu & Huub Savenije; FAO FBS

Additional storage peaked in the 70s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998

Re

se

rvo

irs (

nu

mb

er

pe

r y

ea

r)

Other regions

Asia

Europe

North America

Source: Mats Lannerstad

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009

1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 19181919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 19291930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19401941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 19511952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 19621963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19731974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19841985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19951996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO

Rainfall: Significant Uncertainty and Risk

Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009

Rainfed Agriculture; Soil moisture /green water: size & management

Global warming; Variability & return flow speeded up

Land use that permits infiltration of rainwater; soil moisture/ green water

Soil moisture enough to over-come effects of dry spells?

Options for food, water & livelihood security • Storing water • Storing produce • Market access

The seven fat and the seven lean years (Zimbabwe, 1910 – 2000)

Possibilities for

high yield

High risk;

low yield

The future

One planet but (some) live as if we had two

Photos: Christer Fuglesang, austronout

”Human demand on the

biosphere more than doubled between

1961 – 2007” WWF: Living Planet Report 2010

Climate change may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al. 2008 in Science)

Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)

Food production to increase by 70% by

2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009.

Similar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc.

Plan B: Plan A:

Post-harvest logistics; food/agr. produce; - storage, transport & market access Attention to use & food intake; - Check definition on food security

….and make recommendations as if we had three

In a context where:

Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010)

Average intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/p, d

“It is distressing to note that so much time is being devoted to the culture of the plant, so much money spent on

irrigation, fertilization and crop protection measures, only to be wasted about a

week after harvest” (FAO, 1981)

What is the role of ”evidence-based” knowledge?

Courtesy: Andrew Matthews, APN, Wellington, NZ

”The evolutionary pathway of Man”

Where is

the road ahead?

CONCLUSIONS • Production & supply >> intake requirement • Huge losses & waste = multiple cost • Vulnerability of food system increases • Food chain efficiency = water & other resources

use efficiency