Impacts of air pollution on ecosystems, human health and materials under

different Gothenburg Protocol scenarios

A.C. Le Gall, S. Doytchinov, R. Fischer, M. Forsius, H. Harmens, J.-P. Hettelingh, A. Jenkins, M. Krzyzanowski, B.

Kvæven, M. Lorenz, L. Lundin, G.E. Mills, F. Moldan, M. Posch, B.L. Skjelkvåle, J. Tidblad, R. F. Wright

a LRTAP dataflowa LRTAP dataflow

All WGE’s ICPs and TFand EMEP

How do the data flow between these How do the data flow between these groups? groups?

How do the data flow between these How do the data flow between these groups? groups?

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 3

EutrophicationEutrophication

WGE indicators analysis: Data needs

AcidificationAcidification

OzoneOzone

Multi-pollutantMulti-pollutant

N, S Deposition

Ozone concentration

Meteorological data

ICP modelling and mapping

ICP forests

ICP waters

ICP integrated monitoring

ICP vegetation

TF health

ICP materials

JEG dyn mod

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 4

Projections/scenarios available

• NAT 2000: Historic data (partly Eurostat)• NAT 2020: Assumed national emissions (reported from

the countries)• PRI 2020 and 2030: Projections (mainly) by PRIMES – an

emissions energy consumption model• MFR 2020 – Maximum feasible reduction plan – how much

is possible to reduce with present day technology

Data as available in October 2010

Data provided by TF IAM / CIAM and MSCWData provided by TF IAM / CIAM and MSCW

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 5

EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flowEMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow

TF measurement & modelling

(MSCW, MSCE)

TF IAM

EMEP

WGE

WGSR

Colo

ur

cod

e

ICP modelling and mapping

ICP forests

ICP waters

ICP integrated monitoring

ICP vegetation

TF health

ICP materials

JEG dyn mod

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 6

Number of sites protected /not protected with respect to critical loads for eutrophication for terrestrial ecosystems

ICP IM: Decrease of impacts is expected at various sites

The number of sites impacted decreases by about 20% in 2020 compared with baseline (70% with MFR)

The magnitude of the impact is reduced by about 40% with baseline in 2020 (80% with MFR)

EutrophicationEutrophication

5064

47 47 47

5

3521

38 38 38

80

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 NAT 2000 NAT 2020 PRI 2020 PRI 2030 MFR 2020

Nb sites not protected Nb sites protected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

NAT 2000 NAT 2020 PRI 2020 PRI 2030 MFR 2020

529

336 321 293

107

CL

nu

t N e

q/h

a/ye

ar

Average exceedance of the critical loads for eutrophication for terrestrial ecosystems

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 7

ICP M&M: modelling at european scale confirms sites previsions

NAT2000 NAT2020 MFR2020

EU27 74% 61% 24%

All Europe 52% 38% 14%

EU27 333 179 35

All Europe 185 102 18

% areas at risk of eutrophication

Accumulated Average Exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication

EutrophicationEutrophication

CCE Status report

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 8

Saudlandsvatn SO4

NAT scenario

020406080

100120140160180

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

µe

q/l

Saudlandsvatn ANCNAT scenario

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

µe

q/l

ANClimit

ICP Waters: dynamic modelling shows recovery… and its limits

Good match of modelled and monitoring dataConclusion (with NAT2020):

• ANC goes over ANC limit and levels off

• Bad years, acidification may occur

• NAT, PRI are equivalent as far as water acidification is concerned

AcidificationAcidification

Highly sensitive sites will not recover even under MFR.

See presentation by Brit Lisa Skjelkvåle for further details

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 9

ICP Vegetation:Ozone is of concern for food security

The magnitude of the impact willbe reduced

The areas (intensely) impacted are reduced

But the impact will still occur in a

large part of Europe

NAT2000 NAT2020 POD6 (mmol.m-²) = phytotoxic ozone dose

OzoneOzone

Ozone impact on wheat production

See presentation by Gina Mills for further details

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 10

ICP Materials: Effects on materials will decrease but will not disappear by 2020

NAT2000 MFR2020NAT2020

More intense effects are expected in urban areas than shown on maps.

Multi-pollutantMulti-pollutant

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 11

EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flowEMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow

TF measurement & modelling

(MSCW, MSCE)

TF IAM

WGSR

EMEP

WGE

WGSR

Colo

ur

cod

e

ICP modelling and mapping

ICP forests

ICP waters

ICP integrated monitoring

ICP vegetation

TF health

ICP materials

JEG dyn mod

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 12

Area still at risk in 2020

EMEP: 1 - 4%EU 27: 2 – 7%

EMEP : 14 – 38 %EN 27: 24 – 61 %

EMEP: Wheat: 82% Tomatoes: 51%

0.1 – 0.3 %

Similar observations from all groups and for all effects:● Area impacted decreases● Magnitude of impact decreases

Overall conclusions

AcidificationAcidification

EutrophicationEutrophication

OzoneOzone

Multi-pollutantMulti-pollutant

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 13

Conclusions to WGSRMonitored and modelled indicators indicate only limited

improvements in eutrophication status. Reduction in N emissions remain insufficient to decrease areas of risk for eutrophication.

Ozone impacts on ecosystems, food security and human health will remain very important.

Effects of air pollution on materials and health probably underestimated in urban areas with present models.

Decrease in emissions of S and N, and thereby decrease in deposition, have led to reduced surface waters acidification and a start of biological recovery in many acid sensitive sites. Improvement will continue.

AcidificationAcidification

EutrophicationEutrophication

OzoneOzone

Multi-pollutantMulti-pollutant

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 14

EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flowEMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow

TF measurement & modelling

(MSCW, MSCE)

TF IAM

NEBEI

WGSR

TF RN

TF hemispheric transports

TF inventories

EGTEI

TF POP

TF HM

EMEP

WGE

WGSR

Colo

ur

cod

e

ICP modelling and mapping

ICP forests

ICP waters

ICP integrated monitoring

ICP vegetation

TF health

ICP materials

JEG dyn mod

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 15

EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flowEMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow

TF measurement & modelling

(MSCW, MSCE)

TF IAM

NEBEI

WGSR

TF RN

TF hemispheric transports

TF inventories

EGTEI

TF POP

TF HM

EMEP

WGE

WGSR

Colo

ur

cod

e

ICP waters

ICP modelling and mapping

ICP forests

ICP integrated monitoring

ICP vegetation

TF health

ICP materials

JEG dyn mod

Wge-EMEP-WS.ppt - 16

On behalf all my colleagues within the Working Group on Effects that have

contributed to this analysis and to the results in this presentation

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION