Slide 1

ICP Vegetation contributions to the LRTAP Convention on Ozone

Gina Mills, Harry Harmens, Felicity Hayes, Dave Norris et al.

Gothenburg Protocol review, indicators, scenario analysisImpacts on food security Impacts on C sequestration

ICP VEGETATION

Ozone flux (POD6)Gothenburg Protocol Review: Indicators

AOT40 SOMO35Health index O3 conc. in airVegetation index - O3 conc. in airVegetation index - modelled O3 uptake by plants** See Mills et al., 2011, Atmospheric Environment, 5064 5058 for a summary of flux-based critical levels for ozoneGothenburg Protocol review: Ex-Post Impacts analysisRisk assessment forest trees New scenarios (COB, low, low* etc.)

Economic impact assessment - for crops

NAT scenario

20002020 - MID2020- MFRScenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch) High risk areas reduced, but medium risk remainsLow risk Medium riskHigh risk% change in grid squares with high risk of damage1Low risk of damage22020-COB-61.7+20.12020-Lowstar-67.1+22.92020-MID-69.5+24.12020-Highstar-70.9+26.62020-MFR-74.7+41.41POD1 values > 30 mmol m-22 POD1 values >15 mmol m-2Scenario analysis - Broad-leaf forests (e.g. beech, birch)

20002020 - MID2020- MFRScenario analysis - needle-leaf forests (e.g. Norway spruce) Lower risk than broad leaf forests, but medium risk remains across W EuropeLow risk Medium riskHigh riskField evidence of effects: ICP Vegetation Evidence Report

ICP Vegetation Expert groups for ozoneExpert GroupOutputs/Activities 2010 -12Food Security*Report 2011, paper (s)C sequestration*Report 2012, paper (s)

Further flux model development*Workshop TFM 2012 on national and local applicationO3 and N interactionReview paper, possible workshop in 2013Outreach activitiesFunding proposal on food security (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan & Sri Lanka)* In close collaboration with EMEP MSC-West ICP Vegetation State of Knowledge ReportReport to be published in late September

How does O3 damage crops?

By how much?

Which crops are sensitive?

Effects in N and S Europe

Case studies, including S Asia

Pre-publication copies available

ICP VEGETATION

Costs provided are best estimates SensitiveModerately sensitive TolerantPeas and beansWheatsoybeanSweet potatoOrange Onion Turnip Plum Lettuce MaizeRiceTomatoAlfalfa Water melonOlive Field mustard Sugar beet Oilseed rape Potato Barley Grape Strawberry Oat Broccoli Grouping of crops by sensitivity of yield to ozone

Red font: Globally important staple food crops

Ozone flux (POD6) in 2000Wheat production (2000)Quantifying impacts on wheat production* Assumes adequate soil moisture

Economic losses for wheat in Europe20002020* Assumes adequate soil moisture availableLosses are in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square:0 0.010.01 0.1 0.1 1.01.0 2.52.5 5.0> 520002020Loss in value 3.2 billion Euro1.96 billion EuroLoss in production26.9 million t16.5 million tProportion of grid squares exceeding critical level184.8 %82.2%Area at risk of losses224.5 million ha24.5 million ha1 In wheat-growing areas2 Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per countryEffects on wheat in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario

ICP VEGETATION

Largest losses in France, Germany, Bulgaria and UK

Economic losses for Tomato in Europe20002020Economic loss in million Euro per 50 x 50 km grid square:0 0.010.01 0.1 0.1 1.01.0 2.52.5 5.0> 5* Irrigation assumed, squares with > 3 t production shown1420002020Loss in value 1.02 billion Euro0.63 billion EuroProportion of grid squares exceeding critical level77.8 %51.3%Area at risk of losses*0.33 million ha0.23 million ha* Estimated for each grid square from the mean t/ha per countryEffects on Tomato in EU27+CH+NO, NAT scenario

ICP VEGETATION

Largest losses in Italy, Spain and GreeceNext report: O3 and C sequestration, including feedbacks to climate

To be published, winter 2011/12 Review of current knowledge

Impacts on carbon storage in grasslands and forests for 2000 and 2040, using climate and O3 data from EMEP to run the:: DO3SE modelJULES model (Sitch et al., 2007. Nature)

O3Less CO2 uptakeLess C in rootsIncreased radiative forcing by CO2 and O3

ICP VEGETATION

20202000 emissions, 2040 climate2040 emissions, 2040 climateAOT40POD1Very provisional results!* Maps by EMEP using met data from Kjellstrm et al. (2010) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus 63A, 24-40.

17ICP Vegetation, ozone: SummaryGothenburg Protocol ReviewRecent analysis confirms that ozone impacts on vegetation extend into northern Europe, and cover a larger area of Europe than predicted for the human health indicator, SOMO35.

The NAT, low, low* and MID scenarios will provide increased protection of vegetation, but losses will still be significant in 2020 e.g.2 billion Euro for wheat and medium risk of damage to broad-leaved trees over central and southern Europe

Field evidence of effectsConfirming evidence that:O3 impacts found in ambient air in areas with high fluxes

Food securityImportant staple food crops are ozone sensitive, with economic implications for food supply within the ECE region and concerns for food supply being particularly worrying for developing countries such as in S Asia where ozone concentrations are rising rapidly.

Expert groups formed to further improve knowledge exchangeFood Security Report published this yearC sequestration report for 2011/12Ecosystem services report for 2012/13

ICP VEGETATION

SPARES

Comparison of Scenarios: Broad leaf trees