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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
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Growth of a population is the change in the number of individuals over a
short period of time.
G = N / t
= small interval of the following variable
N = number of individuals present
t = time
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Fig. 22.1: Exponential and Logistic Growth
In exponential growth, the number of additional individuals (growth, G) increases in proportion to the number of individuals present (N). In logistic
growth, G becomes zero as N approaches the habitats carrying capacity (K).
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Cyclic Population Changes
Predator and prey populations often cycle with the same period.
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
Figure 22.2: Explosive Growth of Human World Population
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Update 22.1
As of 8 April 2014, the world population
was
7. 225 billion people
according to the U.S. Census Bureau
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Fig. 22.1: Exponential and Logistic Growth
The human world population keeps increasing because scientific advances increase Earths carrying capacity (K). Some applications of these advances, such as the liberal use of fertilizers and antibiotics, may not be sustainable.
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Figure S22.a: Crowded Cities
In 2008, about half of the human population lived in big cities. Most of these urbanites are poor, and their numbers are increasing.
daviddarling.info/archive/econews/econews_2005_6
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Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime
Replacement level of TFR
under conditions of adequate nutrition and
medical care is
TFRRep = 2.06
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Table 22.1: Distribution of world population & total fertility rates!
Region
Population (billions)
TFR (Average Number of Children per Woman)
World
6.5
2.6
More
developed
1.2
1.6
Less developed
4.5
2.5
Least developed
0.8
4.6
Data for year 2005 by UN Population Division
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Figure S22.b: Global distribution of total fertility rates From Science 30 June 2006, p. 1895
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
Figure 22.3: Historical and projected world population based on different assumptions about future total fertility rates (constant, high, medium, or low).
Source: World Population Prospects - The 2008 Revision. United Nations Population Division.
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Fig. 22.4: Ultimate Human
Population Size
depending on when
worldwide TFR reaches replacement level.
Note time lag between
reaching replacement TFR and leveling of population
curve.
From Potts (2000)
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Figure S22.c: More than 9 billion humans in 2050, according to UN population division medium estimate released in 2011. Most of them will live in developing countries. Roberts (2011)
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
Figure 22.5: Demographic Transition
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Figure 22.6: Age Distribution in Traditional and Developed Societies
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Figure 22.5: Demographic Transition
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow down
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
Fig. 22.7: Historical Industrialization and Pollution
Historically, industrialization has been associated with pollution of air, water, and soil. In developed countries, some of the damage has been reversed by
environmental legislation and remedial funding.
Photo: Frank Gaffney
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Figure S22c: Modern Industrialization and Pollution
In many developing countries, factories are still allowed to dump polluted water into rivers, and water treatment plants do not always seem to work.
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
Figure 22.8:
From
Scientific American December 1993, p. 62
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
inherited patterns of behavior
-
From: Demography and Health Surveys, 1991-1999, Population Reference Bureau
Figure 22.9: Relation of Womens Education to Total Fertility Rates!
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World Population Growth
Mathematical models of population growth
Past and current human population growth
Estimates of future population growth
The explosive growth in world population is part of a
major demographic transition
Waiting for industrial development to slow
population growth is problematic
Contraceptive use slows down population growth
Womens education promotes birth control
Limiting population growth means departing from
(biologically and culturally) inherited behavior