2030 Natural Gas Industry Outlook

WOC 1 Contribution

WOC-1 General

What are the estimated levels of reserves (tcm), where are they located (map) and what production capacity (bcm/annum) is consistent with base demand and price framework up to 2030 ?

Reserves @ 2007 : ~ 175 TCM

Reserves

increase

90 TCM

Demand forecast of ~ 2 % which is slower than the one made in the late 90's ( 3%)

Decrease due to the slowdown of energy demand and of economic growth, the implementation of

energy conservation programs in a context of globally higher prices, and growing competition with

competing energies.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

World Gas Production

OECD Russia Middle East Other Non-OECD Total

Source EIA 2007

Tcf

2030 Outlook : Production @ 4.5 – 5 TCM

IFP

2030 Outlook : Production @ 4.5 – 5 TCM

2030 Outlook : Annual growth demand

2030 Outlook : Reserves 240 – 270 TCM

WOC-1 General

How much of these reserves are associated and non-associated, onshore and offshore? Is there a changing trend? How will this influence costs and technology needs?

Reserves addition

From 1996 to 20032, more than half of the estimated additions to gas reserves by reserve growth and

approximately 10 percent of the estimated undiscovered gas volumes were realized.

Onshore & offshore Reserves distribution

Current situation Current gas reserves distribution (Cedigas 2006) :

Offshore reserves share (39% = 70 TCM) has increased over time, they were 26% of global figure in 1995.

Nearly two-thirds of offshore gas reserves are in the Middle East, where over half of offshore reserves are located in two giant fields: North Field and South Pars.

The Number 2 region for offshore gas reserves is Asia/Pacific, with 16%. This is where 43% of new offshore gas finds occurred in the last five years.

Nine of the fifteen largest fields discovered between 2000 and 2004 were offshore; they represent 64% of the reserves discovered during this period.

Onshore & offshore Reserves distribution

Outlook 2030

A clear tendency to increase the share of offshore gas resources is expected in the next coming years.

Nine of the fifteen largest fields discovered between 2000 and 2004 were offshore; they represent 64% of the reserves discovered during this period.

Offshore gas discoveries size is increasing !!!

1995 2005 2030

WOC-1 General

What are the estimated levels of upstream investments required until 2030 & the key constraints for new developments?

Levels of Upstream investments & Key Constraints

3.9 trillion US$ to be

invested

E&P share : 66 %

dedicated to Exploration

and development of gas

fields, including

bringing new fields on

stream and sustaining

output at existing fields,

Levels of Upstream investments & Key Constraints

Investments required for Upstream : ~ 2.5 trillion US$

Key constraints :

• Prices : Higher prices allow producers to drill for more expensive sources, but will

reduce natural gas demand.

• Technology : improve of technologies will stabilize the prices path

• R&D investments

• Risk Mitigation

• Government assurances and/or incentives

• Environmental constraint : EU directives (NEC / LCP) : SO2 / NOx;, CO2 Emission Trading Scheme and Kyoto

• Market availability

• Transportation network development & cost

WOC-1 General

What are the expected regional and temporal distribution of production peaks? (graphs)

World Gas production profile

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Future Giant Gas fields location trends

Based on the locations of past giants, new discoveries of giant oil and gas fields would

mainly be made in passive margin and rift environments, especially in deepwater basins.

2000 – 2007 statistics related to the 79 new new giant oil and gas fields :

-36 percent along passive margins

- 30 percent in rift zones or overlying sags (structures associated with rifts) ex Persian gulf

-20 percent in collisional zones ex NW Australia & W Africa, GOM, Brazil

similar tectonic settings as the previously documented giants from 1868-2000,

Trends suggest that remaining giant fields will be discovered in "in-fill" areas where past

giants have been clustered and in frontier, or new, areas that correspond to the

predominant tectonic settings of past giants.

WOC-1 / SG-2

What is the estimated production in 2030 (bcm/annum) and reserve base (tcm) for difficult reservoirs and unconventional gas resources?

Unconventional gas supply outlook @ 2030

There's a big gap between what has been achieved so far in north America and

the rest of the world.

This gap will be reduced significantly for some types of unconventional gas as

tight gas considering that many companies are fully involved in the E&P of such

plays. Consequently, a significant increase is expected.

For CBM, the situation is more complex where strong environmental

implication take place. Thus, the development of such resource will differ from

countries according to their environmental policies.

As a result, an important increase would happen in Asia and Africa.

Concerning Methane Hydrates, and following the status of the research projects,

no commercial production is expected prior to 2030.

In conclusion, and among the 160 TCF to be produced yearly @ 2030, the ratio

of unconventional gas could be estimated to 12 – 15 %, slightly higher than the

one recorded today ~ 10 – 12 %.

To be discussed ….

WOC-1 / SG-2

What price levels will stimulate the development of difficult reservoirs and unconventional gas resources ?

Average real natural gas wellhead prices are projected to fall from today''s high

levels to just under $5 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) (2005 dollars) by 2013 as

increased drilling brings on new supplies and new import sources become available.

After 2013, natural gas wellhead prices are projected to increase gradually, to about

$6 per mcf in 2030 (equivalent to $9.63 per mcf in nominal dollars).

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Gas price outlook @ 2030

Note : The economically recoverable

CBM gas in the Powder River Basin

doubles when the wellhead price is raised

from $3 to $7

7 – 8 $ could-it be the

stimulating level for

unconventional gas ?

250-300

500-600

Gas price outlook @ 2030 – Upstream capital escalation

12 $ will significantly

stimulate

unconventional gas

development

2030 Outlook : Reserves Distribution

Worldwide undiscovered natural gas is estimated at 4,221 trillion Of the total natural gas resource base

(6183 TCF), an estimated 3,000 trillion cubic feet is in “stranded” reserves, usually located too far away from

pipeline infrastructure or population centers for its transportation to be economical.

Of the new natural gas resources expected to be added through 2025, reserve growth accounts for 2,347

Tcf. More than one-half of the mean undiscovered natural gas estimate is expected to come from Eurasia,

the Middle East, and North Africa; and about one-fourth (1,065 TCF) is expected to come from a combination of

North, Central, and South America.

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review