AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

October 25, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The combatants in Yemen’s civil war will not make necessary concessions for a negotiated political resolution under current conditions.

2. Al Shabaab is increasing its operational tempo in an effort to disrupt Somalia’s fragile parliamentary election process.

3. The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) is setting conditions to wage a drawn-out guerrilla war in Libya.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPolitical and military tensions remain high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that “Pakistan embraces and radiates the darkness of terrorism.” Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti called on Pakistan to cease cross-border firing in Kashmir. Pakistan submitted a complaint to a UN observatory body alleging that India violated the ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control.

Outlook: The governments of India and Jammu and Kashmir will continue to pressure Pakistan to halt cross-border firing and alleged support of Salafi-jihadi militants.

Salafi-jihadi groups continue to conduct high-casualty attacks targeting Pakistani security forces. Militants carried out a suicide raid at the Balochistan Police College in Quetta, Balochistan province, killing at least 59 personnel and wounding approximately 100 others. ISIS Wilayat Khorasan claimed responsibility for the attack, though Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) or a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) splinter group, Jamatul Ahrar, may also be responsible. The presence of multiple Salafi-jihadi groups in Pakistan may be triggering competition between the groups for support and influence.

Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) continued operations targeting Salafi-jihadi militants following Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s call to crack down on militant groups. Most of the operations targeted TTP militants in the Sindh and Punjab provinces. The CTD claimed to eliminate LeJ, a Pakistan-based Salafi-jihadi group known for sectarian attacks, in Punjab on October 21.

Outlook: Multiple Salafi-jihadi groups will continue to target security forces, as well as state, judicial, and sectarian targets, in the Balochistan region.

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PoliticalThe major players in Yemen’s civil war are not willing to make the concessions required for a peace deal under current conditions. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed proposed a peace plan that addresses some demands of the al Houthi-Saleh faction, but internationally recognized Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s administration, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, remains committed to a peace framework that requires the al Houthi-Saleh faction to disarm and withdraw from seized territory before negotiations proceed.

Outlook: The parties to Yemen’s civil war will continue to pursue a military solution as the country’s humanitarian crisis worsens.

SecurityHostilities resumed along the frontlines in Hajjah, Taiz, Lahij, Sa’ada, and Ma’rib governorates following a 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire. The Saudi-led coalition escalated airstrikes targeting al Houthi-Saleh positions in al Hudaydah governorate on Yemen’s Red Sea coast, possibly in response to a series of anti-ship missile attacks from al Houthi-Saleh-held territory in mid-October. Al Houthi-Saleh forces continued cross-border attacks on Yemen’s northern border in response to coalition-backed efforts to seize territory in Sa’ada governorate, the al Houthis’ historic stronghold.

Outlook: Hostilities will continue to escalate in the Saudi-Yemeni border region.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP is exploiting the civil war to build relationships with anti-al Houthi forces in central Yemen. AQAP-affiliated Ansar al Sharia continues to fight on the al Bayda, Taiz, and Ibb frontlines, where it targeted al Houthi-Saleh field commanders between October 18 and 23. AQAP maintains a support zone in Ma’rib governorate. A reported U.S. airstrike targeted members of the AQAP affiliate Sons of Hadramawt in Ma’rib on October 21, indicating that Sons of Hadramawt members may have relocated to Ma’rib after losing control of al Mukalla, Hadramawt in April 2016.

Outlook: AQAP will expand its area of operations throughout southern and central Yemen as the war continues.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 18, 20 OCT: Coalition air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles in Ma’rib.2) 20-21 OCT: Hadi government forces advanced in Sa’ada. 3) 20, 24 OCT: Al Houthi-Saleh forces shelled Saudi positions in Jazan region, Saudi Arabia.4) 17-23 OCT: AQAP clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Ibb. 5) 19, 23 OCT: Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched ballistic missiles towards Najran, Saudi Arabia.6) 21 OCT: A reported U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP in Ma’rib.

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PoliticalSomali Upper House elections continue to produce mixed results. Approximately half the Somali state administrations conducted elections that did not meet constitutional regulations, including the thirty percent requirement for female representation. The administrations achieved varying success in preventing candidates with violent or controversial pasts from winning seats. Lower House elections pose a more complex security and logistical challenge to the Somali federal state. Lower House elections will involve significantly larger delegate lists and more polling locations. Officials insist Lower House elections will take place between October 23 and November 10.

Outlook: Somali officials will likely delay the Lower House elections until early 2017.

Security Al Shabaab is capitalizing on the absence of AMISOM forces to advance in Hiraan region. Al Shabaab seized El Ali and Halgan after Ethiopian AMISOM troops withdrew on October 11 and October 22. Ethiopian forces are withdrawing from Somalia to quell growing protests by the Oromo ethnic group in Ethiopia. Ethiopian forces have abandoned at least seven other towns since August 2016. Al Shabaab likely exploited this security vacuum to launch a complex attack on a Djiboutian AMISOM base in Beledweyne, Hiraan region on October 25.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will seize population centers abandoned by Ethiopian forces in the Hiraan region.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab continues to target Kenyan civilians along the northern Kenya-Somali border. Al Shabaab militants launched an overnight attack on a lodge in Mandera town, Mandera County, Kenya on October 25 that killed 12 civilians. Al Shabaab launched a similar attack in Mandera town on October 5. Kenyan officials announced plans to train a new border defense group, but regional politicians are demanding more security support from the central government.

Outlook: The increase in attacks on the Kenya-Somalia border and the Ethiopian troop withdrawal may cause Kenya to deploy additional forces inside Somalia.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 22-23 OCT: Al Shabaab occupied Halgan area, Hiraan region after Ethiopian AMISOM forces withdrew.2) 24 OCT: Puntland and Galmudug forces clashed near Galkayo, Mudug region.3) 25 OCT: Al Shabaab attacked Kenyan civilians in Mandera town, Kenya.4) 25 OCT: Al Shabaab attacked a Djiboutian AMISOM base in Beledweyne, Hiraan region. 5) 25 OCT: Al Shabaab gunmen assassinated a SNA general in Mogadishu.

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PoliticalThe political process in Libya is stalled as the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) faces challenges to its legitimacy from the east and west. GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj is attempting to reassert the GNA’s authority in the capital Tripoli, where unrest among anti-GNA militias remains a threat following an attempted coup by a rump parliament. Serraj is also seeking negotiations with the Libyan National Army (LNA), which is consolidating its military and economic power in eastern Libya. Serraj lacks the political capital to bring together competing factions in support of the GNA.

Outlook: Serraj’s efforts to ally with the LNA may spark backlash from the GNA’s current supporters.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA) may be preparing for a renewed offensive against the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist militant group that includes al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, with Egyptian military support. Egyptian military sources claim that Egypt is providing military support for the LNA’s counterterrorism operations without breaking the UN arms embargo. The LNA may be supplying oil to Egypt in exchange for military support.

Outlook: The LNA will resume offensive operations on the besieged Qanfouda neighborhood, where both the BRSC and ISIS Wilayat Barqa are operating.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS may be starting a guerrilla-style campaign against US-backed forces throughout central Libya’s Sirte district. ISIS militants left in Sirte are adapting to U.S. airstrikes through increased hit-and-run tactics and tunnels recently discovered by GNA-allied forces. ISIS has also positioned attack teams outside of Sirte city to ambush supply lines into the city.

Outlook: The diffusion of ISIS militants outside of Sirte city will likely result in a months-long guerilla war throughout Sirte district.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1) 18 OCT: ISIS wounded 64 GNA-allied militiamen in Sirte.2) 20 OCT: The Subol al Salam Brigade, a Salafi militia possibly allied with the LNA, killed 13 Sudanese JEM militants in Jaghbub.3) 22 OCT: GNA-allied militias seized the 600 complex in Sirte.4) 22 OCT: The anti-GNA Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade demonstrated in Tripoli.5) 24 OCT: A car bomb killed an LNA soldier in al Sirati, Benghazi.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebTunisian authorities disrupted an ISIS attack that may have been ordered by ISIS leadership in Libya or Iraq and Syria. The plan reportedly included two attack teams that would infiltrate Tunisia from Libya to assassinate the Tunisian interior minister and conduct an explosive attack on the Tunisian parliament building.

Outlook: ISIS will attempt to plan another spectacular attack on Tunisia using Libya as a support zone.

Uqba ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisia achieved an important milestone in its democratic transition. The country held its first elections for its High Judicial Council, replacing the direct appointment of Judicial Council members by government officials.

Outlook: The Tunisian government will continue efforts to reform the country’s political and economic systems. Difficult economic reforms and high unemployment are most likely to spark popular backlash.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)A self-declared pro-ISIS group may be increasing the pace and size of its attacks in the Sahel region. The group’s leader, who has ties to the AQIM network, claimed responsibility for two attacks in Burkina Faso and Niger. AQIM remains the dominant militant group in the Sahel region.

Nigerian security forces are struggling to make battlefield gains against Boko Haram despite the government’s claims that the group is essentially defeated. Military commanders contradicted the official reports by leaking to the press that most casualties from a clash between Nigerian forces and pro-ISIS Boko Haram militants in mid-October occurred when soldiers abandoned their posts. The militants captured as many as 85 Nigerian soldiers, who chose to surrender rather than fight.

Outlook: Salafi-jihadi groups will attempt to expand recruitment in Burkina Faso. Corruption within the Nigerian government and military will continue to undermine operations against Boko Haram.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 17-21 OCT: Tunisian security forces arrested ISIS militants in Sousse, Monastir and Tunis for allegedly planning to assassinate the interior minister and bomb the parliament building.2) 25 OCT: Tunisian police arrested two American brothers from Michigan in Jendouba Governorate on terrorism charges.3) 24 OCT: Tunisian police arrested four suspected militants in Tajerouine, Kef Governorate.

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1) 24 OCT: Burkinabe police pursued suspected Salafi-jihadi recruiters in Ouagadougou and killed one suspected militant.2) 19 OCT: Militants killed a Malian nurse on a roadway in Gossi, Gao Region.3) 24 OCT: The Civilian Joint Task Force killed seven Boko Haram militants in Hansta, Adamawa State, Nigeria.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569