AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

April 28, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Saudi Arabia announced the end of Operation Decisive Storm and beginning of Operation Restoring Hope in Yemen.

2. A pro-ISIS group claimed credit for an attack on Tunisian soldiers in Kasserine region.3. Kenya announced its intention to close the Dadaab refugee complex.

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ASSESSMENT:

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its

followers in the West. ISIS cells in Libya appear to be dominating the Islamist fight whereas those that have emerged in Yemen

have not pulled too much strength from AQAP there. AQAP will probably need to respond to the recent declaration by the ISIS

“Green Brigade” announced in Yemen. Al Qaeda will probably continue to try to emphasize the differences between ISIS’s and

al Qaeda’s strategies.

Italian and French police arrested members of suspected al Qaeda cells in their respective countries for planned attacks in

Europe, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

A rumor persists that al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri has indicated he will absolve affiliates of their loyalty pledges to him

and allow them to operate independently. No official al Qaeda sources have given credence to the rumor.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to prioritize its fight in Syria, but will also take advantage of recent gains in Yemen. It will

continue to try to inspire low-scale attacks in the West.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Afghan Taliban declared the launch of their spring offensive on April 24th. The Afghan Taliban seems to be competing with

ISIS in the region by escalating the violence of its attacks, while Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) seeks to distance itself through

condemnation of such attacks. TTP and ISIS both released videos showcasing their respective military abilities in Pakistan.

The Pakistani military (PakMil) continues to target TTP militants in ground operations and air strikes in tribal and urban areas of

Pakistan, especially in Khyber. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes target TTP

leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.

Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan

border.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalNearly all parties agree that the only solution in Yemen is a political solution, but disagree on the terms to come to the

negotiating table. Saudi Arabia announced the end of Operation Decisive Storm and the beginning of Operation Restoring Hope

on April 21, claiming that airstrikes had destroyed the ballistic missile capabilities of the al Houthi movement and its allied

forces. Airstrikes have continued under the new operation. The al Houthi movement claimed the end of Operation Decisive

Storm as a victory. The end of Operation Decisive Storm has had no perceptible change on Saudi involvement in Yemen.

Outlook: The end of Operation Decisive Storm, though welcomed by the international community, will have little impact on the

Yemen conflict as Saudi airstrikes continue under Operation Restoring Hope.

SecurityThe U.S. Navy deployed ships to the Gulf of Aden on April 20, reportedly in response to Iranian cargo ships alleged to be

carrying weapons to resupply the al Houthi movement in Yemen. The Iranian ships turned back on April 23. Al Houthi military

expansion continued as al Houthi militants seized a military base in Kawful, Sirwah, Ma’rib, on April 22, marking the first

successful al Houthi-push into Ma’rib governorate. Al Houthi fighters similarly seized the military base of the 35th Armored

Brigade in Taiz city, Taiz, on April 22. Popular Resistance fighters continued to combat the al Houthis in Shabwah, Aden, al

Dhaleh, Ibb, and Abyan governorates.

Outlook: Local resistance could inhibit the al Houthis’ ability to operate in southern Yemen.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP continues to hold parts of al Mukalla city, the capital of Hadramawt governorate. Reported U.S. airstrikes targeted AQAP

militants in al Said, Shabwah on April 19 and in al Mukalla, Hadramawt, on April 21. Separately, pro-ISIS Twitter accounts

announced the creation of Wilayat Green Brigade, reportedly operating in Taiz and Ibb governorates.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to expand and exploit fears of al Houthi expansion to work with local tribes and forces in southern and eastern Yemen.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

1) 20 APR: U.S. Navy deployed ships to the Gulf of Aden.2) 18-24 APR: Popular resistance forces clashed with al Houthi militants in Aden city, Aden.3) 22 APR: Al Houthi militants seized control of the 35th Armored Brigade camp in Taiz city, Taiz.4) 22 APR: Al Houthi militants seized control of Camp Kawful, Ma’rib.5) 18-22 APR: Saudi airstrikes targeted al Houthi sites throughout Yemen.

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Yemen airstrike data ends

Operation Restoring Hope

begins

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalKenya’s reaction to the April 2 Garissa University attack continues to draw controversy. The Kenyan government announced

that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) had three months to close the Dadaab refugee camp,

which the Kenyan government believes is a recruiting ground for al Shabaab, following the attack. There was a meeting

between the Kenyan and Somali governments and the UNHCR, which established a tripartite committee to oversee the

repatriation of refugees into Somalia.

Outlook: Kenya’s attempts to improve security and defend against al Shabaab may alienate its Muslim population, which al

Shabaab could exploit for recruitment efforts.

Security Al Shabaab continues to operate from the countryside despite losing control of population centers and the coastal region in

southern Somalia. Somali Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke stated in an April 23 interview that the rural areas of

southern Somalia were being used as a launching pad by al Shabaab to strike in Somalia and Kenya but Somali security forces

were undertaking operations to secure the territory.

Outlook: Securing the countryside will be important to preventing al Shabaab attacks, but will likely be a challenge for

Somalia’s security forces.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab conducted its first attack in Garowe, northeastern Somalia, since August 2013. Al Shabaab detonated an IED on

April 20 targeting UN personnel. Al Shabaab spokesman Ali Mohamed Rage later released a statement warning that al

Shabaab would continue to target UN personnel in Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue to target UN personnel and agencies in Somalia in an attempt to force them to

withdraw and thereby weaken the Somali government.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:1) 20 APR: Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting UN personnel in Garowe, Nugaal region.2) 21 APR: Al Shabaab conducted an SVBIED attack in Mogadishu.3) 18, 23 APR: Al Shabaab assassinated Somali government officials in Mogadishu.4) 23 APR: Al Shabaab militants kidnapped Kenyan police chief and executed him in Mandera county, North Eastern province, Kenya.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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ASSESSMENT:

AQIM

Algeria launched "Operation Spring,” a counter-terrorism operation that will be conducted along Algeria's borders with Mali,

Niger, and Libya. The operation’s purpose is to undermine terrorist infrastructure and networks.

Outlook: Arrests of suspected terrorists and raids are likely to increase in regions near Algeria's borders.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)

Tunisian security forces continue to conduct counter-terrorism operations in the country’s mountain regions. Clashes between

Tunisian army units and militants erupted in Kasserine, near the Algerian border, during an operation. The pro-ISIS militant

group, Soldiers of the Caliphate in Africa, later claimed responsibility. It is unclear if the group is connected to the other pro-ISIS

group in Tunisia, Soldiers of the Caliphate that claimed responsibility for the March 18 Bardo Museum attack in Tunis. The

Tunisian government has tied the Bardo Museum attack to a separate Islamist group, the Uqba ibn Nafaa Brigade.

Outlook: Attacks against Tunisian security forces are likely to continue, particularly in the mountainous regions in western

Tunisia, where many militants hide. The extent of ISIS’s presence in Tunisia remains unclear, but pro-ISIS groups may seek to

target Tunisian security forces throughout the country.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)

Al Murabitoun published a 40-page report on its January 2013 attack at the Tiguentourine gas facility in northern Algeria, also

known as the In Amenas hostage crisis. The report includes the specifics of the operation and ends with a letter to the Algerian

army, comparing it to the French colonial army.

Outlook: This statement is likely an attempt to increase support for al Murabitoun in the Maghreb and may be a warning of

future attacks against the Algerian army.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 22-24 APR: Tunisian army forces clashed with militants in Mount Salloum, Kasserine, next to the Algerian border. The clashes killed three soldiers and ten militants. 2) 22 APR: Tunisian security forces arrested five individuals linked to Ansar al Sharia in two cities in Bizerte, north Tunisia. 3) 22 APR: Algeriansecurity forces killed three militants in Hamman Righa, northern Algeria.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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1) 23 APR: A MINUSMA vehicle hit an IED in Anefis, Kidal, in northern Mali. Seven peacekeepers were injured in the attack. 2) 20 APR: Unidentified militants attacked a MINUSMA convoy about 30 kilometers west of Gao, in northern Mali. MINUSMA reported that at least one driver was killed in the attack.

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

Regional Developments and Diplomacy

Saudi Arabia’s April 21 announcement of the end of Operation Decisive Storm initially prompted regime officials to praise Iran’s

“important role in the ceasefire” as well as congratulate the al Houthi rebel group for the “huge victory for the Islamic

community.” The Foreign Ministry later condemned Saudi Arabia’s continued airstrikes in Yemen; Deputy Foreign Minister

Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated, “Riyadh’s behavior… will not remain without response.” In addition, a convoy of Iranian cargo

ships purportedly carrying arms for the al Houthis altered its course three days after the US announcement of the USS

Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group’s arrival in the Gulf of Aden. The convoy was an unusually high-profile operation for Iran

and was likely meant to test American and Saudi redlines on preventing the arming of the al Houthis.

Outlook: Iran will continue to call for a ceasefire and domestic dialogue as solutions to the crisis in Yemen.

Nuclear TalksSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated his redline on Iran’s defensive capabilities. Senior Iranian officials insisted

that military sites will not be subject to IAEA-led inspections; IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami

stated, “Privacy of military bases should be maintained… because all of our defense…secrets are here.” Tehran and the P5+1,

meanwhile, started drafting the text of the final nuclear deal. Senior negotiator Abbas Araghchi stated that, unlike previous

rounds, both sides have found “solutions for almost all issues…” Araghchi also highlighted significant progress in resolving

sanctions related issues with the U.S. and EU, adding: “we also had a very useful discussion about the recent bill passed by

America’s Congress [to review a nuclear deal with Iran].”

Outlook: Iran’s refusal to grant international inspectors access to its military facilities will pose a significant challenge for the

U.S. and EU-3; it also impedes a successful IAEA resolution on the military dimensions of Tehran’s nuclear research.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1219 APR – 24 APR 2015

19 APR: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged his military commanders to maintain operational

readiness due to U.S. hostility toward Iran.

19 APR: IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami reiterated that Iran’s defense capabilities are

non-negotiable.

21 APR: President Hassan Rouhani stated that the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen is a product of “mental

imbalance” from an accumulation of Riyadh’s failed regional strategies.

21 APR: Basij Organization Commander IRGC Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naghdi congratulated the leader

of Ansar Allah Abdul Malik al Houthi for Yemen’s resistance against the Saudis.

22 APR: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran played a key role in ending

Operation Decisive Storm.

22 APR: Deputy-level nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 kicked off in Vienna, Austria.

23 APR: President Rouhani met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to promote closer bilateral ties.

23 APR: Senior negotiator Hamid Baeidinejad announced that Iran and the P5+1 started drafting the text for

the final nuclear agreement.

24 APR: Senior negotiator Abbas Araghchi said that the U.S. and EU-3 clarified the process of lifting

sanctions and that “almost all” technical differences have been reconciled.

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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