AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

March 17, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The al Houthis reported that they signed an economic deal with Iran.

2. Iran’s Supreme Leader reacted to the GOP open letter citing concern of congressional

support for a nuclear deal with Iran.

3. Al Murabitoun conducted an attack in Bamako, Mali, the farthest south it has operated.

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ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its

followers in the West. Al Shabaab recently called for supporters to target shopping centers in the West, copying its 2013

Westgate Mall attack in Kenya, for example. Despite competition with ISIS, the al Qaeda network will continue to direct

resources to the Iraq-Syria front to support the Sunni populations.

A recently released document from the Abbottabad cache revealed Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) senior official

Nasser bin Ali al Ansi was al Qaeda's deputy general manager. This confirms the assessment that members of al Qaeda's

leadership hierarchy are neither geographically concentrated in Afghanistan and Pakistan nor distinct from affiliate leadership,

but are interspersed.

Outlook: Al Qaeda seeks to reassert its relevance in the global jihadist movement and will try to influence the decision-making

of foreign fighters in the Iraq-Syria conflict.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Pakistani military (PakMil) continues to target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in ground operations and air strikes

in tribal and urban areas of Pakistan. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes target

TTP leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.

Notably, a Pakistani court ordered the release of the alleged mastermind behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks in India and a top

leader of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, calling his detention illegal.

Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan

border. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) continues media operations and may launch additional spectacular attacks,

possibly in conjunction with TTP.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe al Houthis are strengthening their relationship with Iran and seeking economic assistance. An al Houthi delegation to

Tehran announced that they had signed an economic deal with Iran in which Iran will revamp the power grid in Ma’rib, Aden,

Sana’a, and al Hudaydah. Iran will also help renovate al Hudaydah seaport and will reportedly help provide for Yemen’s oil

needs for the next year. Sa’ada International Airport, located in the al Houthis’ stronghold, is also nearing completion. Some

Yemeni and Gulf state leaders fear the al Houthis will use the airport to import weapons from Iran.

Outlook: The al Houthis will continue to strengthen ties with Iran amid increasing economic isolation from Gulf States.

SecuritySecurity in Aden has deteriorated as pro-Hadi and pro-al Houthi forces clash. Special Security Forces (SSF) in Aden under the

command of a Saleh-appointee fought with popular committees loyal to Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, particularly over

checkpoints surrounding the international airport. Separately, local tribesmen and Ansar al Sharia militants continued to engage

al Houthi forces in al Bayda city and its surrounding districts. Ma’rib tribesmen led by the Murad tribe have massed near the al

Bayda–Ma’rib border to prevent al Houthi expansion into Ma’rib.

Outlook: The security situation in Aden will remain volatile as the al Houthis and their allies continue to attempt to isolate Hadi’s

government in Aden.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP continued targeting al Houthis and military units using its insurgent arm, Ansar al Sharia. Ansar al Sharia temporarily

seized the town of al Mahfad, Abyan in southern Yemen, marking the second time Ansar al Sharia has seized control of territory

in two months.

Outlook: Political unrest and armed conflict will continue to give AQAP more room to expand and operate. AQAP will likely

build off of anti-al Houthi sentiment to interweave fighters into local populations.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 09-12 MAR: Pro-Hadi popular committees clashed with Special Security Forces in Aden city.2) 12 MAR: Al Houthi militias held military exercises with heavy weaponry near Saudi border in Sa’ada. 3) 09 MAR: Ansar al Sharia militants seized al Mahfad, Abyan but were driven out by popular committees.4) 08-09 MAR: Ansar al Sharia militants attacked al Houthi positions in al Bayda city and surrounding districts, al Bayda.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalA spokesman for the Somali Ministry of Defense stated on March 6 that Somalia was working with friendly nations to acquire its own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to use against al Shabaab.

Outlook: Acquiring UAVs would allow the Somali government to be less reliant on international partners such as the U.S. and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to target al Shabaab.

Security Somali National Army (SNA) and AMISOM forces continued to pressure al Shabaab. Security forces captured the town of Ali

Gudud, Middle Shabelle region from al Shabaab on March 9. It was reported that an unknown airstrike targeted al Shabaab in

the Lower Shabelle region on March 10. It is unclear who carried out the strike. A suspected U.S. airstrike targeted al Shabaab

near Bardhere, Gedo region on March 12, reportedly killing senior al Shabaab member Adan Garar.

Outlook: Pressure from SNA and AMISOM forces will continue to force al Shabaab to cede control of territory in southern

Somalia, and the group will increasingly focus on insurgent operations. Airstrikes will likely not disrupt al Shabaab’s operations

long term.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab explosives expert and senior member of al Shabaab’s intelligence unit, Amniyat, Abdullahi Ahmed Muhumeddefected to the Somali government on March 7. It was reported that he had received explosives training from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). On March 12, al Shabaab conducted a complex attack on the regional government headquarters in Baidoa, Bay region which left at least eight dead. The attack involved a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED).

Outlook: Al Shabaab continues to maintain its ability to carry out complex attacks on secure locations and will likely continue to do so as it loses direct control of territory.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

1) 09 MAR: SNA and AMISOM forces captured Ali Gudud, Middle Shabelle region.2) 10 MAR: An airstrike targeted al Shabaab in Barawe district, Lower Shabelle region. 3) 12 MAR: Al Shabaab conducted complex attack in Baidoa, Bay region.4) 12 MAR: A suspected U.S. airstrike targeted al Shabaab near Bardhere, Gedo region.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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ASSESSMENT:AQIMThe Algerian military ambushed and killed three unidentified militants near Algiers in northern Algeria, in a region where both

AQIM-affiliated and pro-ISIS militants have previously operated. Meanwhile, the Algerian military conducted multiple large anti-

smuggling operations in several areas, arresting over seventy smugglers.

Outlook: Unrest in Libya will continue to benefit AQIM and contribute to its overall ability to carry out smuggling operations in

the Sahel.

Ansar al Sharia (Libya, Tunisia)Tunisian security forces continued counter-terrorism operations across Tunisia. Militants from the Ubqa ibn Nafaa Brigade

launched a failed attack on Tunisian military forces in the town of Boulaaba, in the Kasserine, the same town in which the 17

FEB attack that killed four Tunisian soldiers occurred. Tunisian intelligence forces reportedly intercepted a phone call from Uqba

ibn Nafaa Brigade leader Khaled Hamadi Chayeb discussing a weapons cache. Security forces later seized the weapons

cache, which included over 23,000 rounds of ammunition and dozens of RPGs and mines.

Outlook: Militant activity targeting Tunisian security forces and retaliatory counter-terrorism operations will likely continue to

increase, but the intercepted phone call indicates the security operations are having an effect on the militants.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)A masked gunman opened fire at a restaurant popular with foreigners in Mali’s capital, Bamako, killing five people including one

Belgian and one French citizen. Al Murabitoun, an AQIM splinter group, released a video claiming responsibility for the incident,

stating that the attack was in reprisal for the killing of one of the group’s senior commanders a few months earlier. The attack

was notable for its targeting of foreigners.

Outlook: The restaurant attack in Bamako represents a significant shift in the geographic positioning of al Murabitoun, a group

that has typically carried out attacks in northern Mali. It seems likely that al Murabitoun and other Islamist groups will continue

to stage attacks, ultimately bringing more instability to an already fragile nation.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 09 MAR: Tunisian security forces seized a weapons cache bound for militants in the Kasserine region, which included over 23,000 rounds of ammunition and dozens of RPGs and mines, in the Medenine region. 2) 10 MAR: The Algerian military ambushed and killed three armed militants near Ain Delfa. 3) 11-12 MAR: Tunisian security forces arrested nine Ubqa ibn NafaaBrigade militants, in the Kasserine.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

1) 07 MAR: An al Murabitoun gunman opened fire at a restaurant popular with foreigners in the capital, Bamako, killing five people. 2) 08 MAR:Unidentified assailants launched a complex attack against a MINUSMA base in Kidal, killing three people. 3) 13 MAR: MUJAO kidnapped three civilians near the Nigerien border.

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ASSESSMENT:

Regional Developments

Sustained Iranian rhetoric backing a balance of power in the Yemeni government conflicted with the signing of several

economic agreements with the al Houthis. The agreements are aimed at revamping Yemeni infrastructure, such as focusing on

power plants in Sana’a and Aden. Commander of the IRGC Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, meanwhile, indicated that

ISIS would not be able to hold Tikrit, Iraq, and as a result would be “driven out” of Fallujah and Mosul.

Outlook: Iran will continue to help the al Houthis hedge against further economic upheaval.

Domestic Developments

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi was elected Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, defeating Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

by a large margin, 47-24. Rafsanjani was the favorite heading into the elections, leading many to believe the Assembly of

Experts would become more moderate. Yazdi’s selection, however, illustrated the robust conservative makeup of the Assembly.

Outlook: The Assembly of Experts is charged with electing and removing the Supreme Leader. Given Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s

declining health, it is likely that this conservative body will select Khamenei’s successor.

Nuclear Talks

The Supreme Leader said that the open letter from Republican senators is indicative of Washington’s internal disintegration and

a collapse of political ethics. The letter reinforced Khamenei’s concerns about President Obama’s ability to gain congressional

support for a nuclear deal.

Outlook: The threats Republican senators made to senior Iranian officials could prompt the regime to leverage the letter to gain

more concessions from the P5+1.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1207 MAR – 13 MAR 2015

08 MAR: The IRGC Air Force unveiled the “Soumar” surface-to-surface missile.

08 MAR: IRGC Air Force Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh reiterated the regime’s position that its

defense capabilities are non-negotiable.

09 MAR: The Supreme Leader appointed Brig. Gen. Hossein Ashtari as the new Commander of the Law

Enforcement Forces (LEF).

09 MAR: Several new photos of IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani emerged,

including one published on March 5 showing Soleimani with ground forces in Tikrit.

09 MAR: President Hassan Rouhani called Iran’s nuclear negotiators “diplomatic generals,” elevating their

status to the revered Iran-Iraq War commanders.

09 MAR: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif rebuffed the open letter to Iranian leaders signed by 47

Republican senators as a “propaganda ploy.”

10 MAR: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi was elected Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, defeating

Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

10 MAR: Arab and African Affairs Deputy to the Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian blamed former

Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s resignation for creating a political crisis in Sana’a.

11 MAR: Former LEF Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam was appointed Senior Advisor for

Security Affairs to the Chief of the AFGS Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi.

12 MAR: Tehran and Sana’a sign economic deal to promote cooperation in the electricity and oil sectors.

13 MAR: Iraqi Badr Organization Head Hadi al Amiri criticized the U.S. for its conditional support to Baghdad

and praised Iran’s full-fledged support in the fight against ISIS.

13 MAR: Iraq Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi announced negotiations are underway with Iran and Kuwait to

resolve issues of the use of joint oil wells and diversify Iraq’s oil production.

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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