AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

October 11, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The al Houthi-Saleh alliance may escalate attacks in both the Bab al Mandab Strait and southern Saudi Arabia after a Saudi-led coalition airstrike on a funeral hall in Sana’a, which scuttled a planned humanitarian ceasefire.

2. Al Qaeda is exploiting the current counterterrorism focus on ISIS to build up a resilient Salafi-jihadi base in eastern Libya.

3. ISIS may attempt to resume an offensive campaign against the Algerian state.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates

Political and military tensions remain high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. India conducted “surgical strikes” against Pakistan-based militants on September 29 and has accused Pakistan of hosting “terror launch pads” in its border region. Military forces from both countries have exchanged fire across the Line of Control in the contested Kashmir region. Protests against Indian rule in Indian-controlled Kashmir, some led by pro-Pakistan groups, have continued since July 2016. Indian troops clashed with militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir on October 9.

The government of Pakistan is messaging its commitment to countering violent extremist groups, possibly to deflect accusations of government support for militant groups and de-escalate tensions with India. The government called on the Afghan Taliban to “shun violence and join the peace process.” Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ordered the Pakistani military to crack down on Pakistan-based militants and criticized military intelligence for hindering efforts to combat Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, both of which claimed responsibility for recent attacks against India. Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Department arrested members of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) on October 8, following Sharif’s statement.

Outlook: The governments of India and Pakistan will attempt to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Control.

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PoliticalGovernance failures are eroding support for political leaders in both northern and southern Yemen. Unpaid salaries and inadequate services sparked protests against President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government in southern Yemen. The Southern Movement, which seeks southern Yemeni representation, called for demonstrations on October 14 to commemorate South Yemen’s revolt against the British Mandate. The Hadi government’s relocation of the Central Bank and the Saudi-led coalition’s blockade on Yemeni ports have exacerbated poverty and political unrest in al Houthi-Saleh territory.

Outlook: The Hadi government may accept some Southern Movement demands in order to retain support.

SecurityHostilities are escalating following a Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on a funeral hall in Sana’a on October 8 that killed 155 civilians and wounded hundreds more. Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched ballistic missiles targeting coalition forces in Taif, Saudi Arabia, and Ma’rib governorate, Yemen, in response. The U.S. announced that it will review its limited support for the coalition following the strike. Forces in al Houthi-Saleh territory fired two shore-launched cruise missiles at a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Red Sea on October 9. The al Houthis denied responsibility for the attack. A Pentagon spokesman implied that the U.S. may retaliate against those responsible for this or future strikes.

Outlook: Limited U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition will likely continue.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenU.S. airstrikes targeting AQAP militants in order to disrupt the group’s operations have not neutralized the group. U.S. airstrikes targeted an AQAP militant vehicle in Shabwah governorate on October 6, but local sources claimed that the men killed by the strike were civilians. AQAP launched multiple attacks targeting Yemeni security forces in southern Yemen on October 5.

Outlook: AQAP will retain a strong support base in southern Yemen despite counterterrorism operations.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 04 OCT: Hadi government forces seized positions in al Ghayl district, al Jawf.2) 04 OCT: Hadi government forces seized positions in Nihm district, Sana’a. 3) 05 OCT: AQAP attacked security forces in al Mahfad, Abyan. 4) 06 OCT: Hadi government and allied forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Haradh district, Hajjah. 5) 08 OCT: A coalition airstrike struck a funeral hall in Sana’a.6) 09 OCT: Two missiles targeted a U.S. Navy ship.

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PoliticalSomali officials will likely announce further delays to the parliamentary and presidential elections. Election officials returned Upper House candidate lists to Jubbaland, Puntland, and Galmudug States for failing to meet the thirty percent representation threshold for female candidates. Multiple clan leaders also failed to submit Lower House delegate lists by the October 10 deadline. Upper House representation is divided equally by states. Lower House allocation is based upon the “4.5” clan system, in which the four major clans receive a majority of representation.

Outlook: Somali officials are unlikely to elect a new administration and parliament until early 2017.

Security Galmudug state officials will accept compensation payments from U.S. officials over the September 28 U.S. airstrike that inadvertently killed 14 Galmudug security forces. Galmudug officials claim Puntland intelligence supplied faulty intelligence for the September 28 strike. Clashes between Puntland and Galmudug security forces killed six security personnel on October 7 and two others on October 8. Regional elders brokered a ceasefire on October 9 that collapsed the next day.

Outlook: The Galmudug-Puntland conflict is unlikely to escalate into full-scale war, but skirmishes will continue.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab may be refocusing attention on northeastern Kenya. Al Shabaab militants attacked a village of sleeping Kenyans in Mandera County of October 5, killing six individuals. Al Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamed Rage promised further operations targeting Kenyans following the attack. Kenyan leaders and experts have been debating whether Kenya should continue its mission in Somalia under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Al Shabaab exploits the presence of foreign militaries in Somalia to bolster its recruiting efforts.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely increase attacks targeting Mandera and Wajir counties in northeast Kenya in order to incite Kenya to remain in Somalia.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 04 OCT: SNA forces raided al Shabaab positions in the Lower Shabelle region.2) 05 OCT: Al Shabaab attacked Kenyan civilians in Mandera County, Kenya. 3) 07 OCT: Galmudug and Puntland State forces clashed in Galkayo town, Mudug region. 4) 10 OCT: Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated a SVBIED in Yaqshid district, Mogadishu.

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PoliticalHigh-level negotiations are not sufficient to de-escalate the conflict in Libya. The Prime Minister of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayez al Serraj, met with Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to work toward a political agreement. The LNA is fragmented despite Haftar’s power, however, and LNA-allied military leaders in both northwestern and southern Libya have challenged his leadership.

Outlook: Local militias will continue to fight in pursuit of their own interests even if high-level negotiations proceed.

SecurityThe Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist militant group that includes al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, is building popular support in Benghazi by positioning itself as the protector of the civilian population. AQIM emir Abdelmalek Droukdel called for Muslims to fight alongside the BRSC in Benghazi on October 9. The LNA is besieging Benghazi’s Qanfouda district, where both BRSC and ISIS militants operate. The LNA is ignoring calls from the United Nations Special Mission to Libya to allow more than 100 trapped families to leave Qanfouda, citing security concerns.

Outlook: The protracted fight in Benghazi will continue to drive the growth of a Salafi-Jihadi base in eastern Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS is positioned to conduct a guerrilla campaign after the fall of its former stronghold in Sirte. GNA-allied militias are closing in on ISIS’s final bastion in al Jiza, Sirte. ISIS attacks by militants based in the central Libyan desert have prolonged the U.S.-backed effort.

Outlook: ISIS attacks on GNA-allied security forces in central Libya will increase. ISIS may attempt to conduct a large-scale explosive attack on a government or security target, likely in Tripoli or Misrata.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1) 04 OCT: BRSC shelling killed seven civilians in Sidi Hussein, Benghazi. 2) 06 OCT: Attackers raided the home of a LNA-allied parliamentarian and kidnapped his brother in Ben Jawad.3) 07 OCT: ISIS killed two GNA-allied militiamen and wounded 14 others in al Jiza, Sirte. 4) 08 OCT: ISIS killed four and wounded 35 GNA-allied militiamen in al Jiza, Sirte. 5) 09 OCT: The U.S. conducted nine airstrikes on ISIS in Sirte.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebAQIM expanded its target set in the Sahel to include coordinated attacks against refugee camps related to the Malian conlict. At least 30 suspected AQIM militants attacked a UN-run refugee camp in western Niger on October 6, killing 22 of the 29 Nigerien soldiers deployed to protect the camp. AQIM affiliate in Mali Ansar al Din has also increased the tempo of its attacks against MINUSMA peacekeeping forces in the country.ISIS Wilayat Jaza’ir conducted its first attack in Algeria since August 2016, according to a pro-ISIS media source.

Outlook: Ansar al Din will sustain its tempo of attacks against MINUSMA troops as peace falters in northern Mali.

Uqba ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)The AQIM network remains active in western Tunisia despite reports of insufficient funding and supplies. AQIM militants, including members of the Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade, attacked a Tunisian National Guard center in Kasserine Governorate on October 10. Tunisian troops disrupted the attack. The Tunisian Army continued air and ground operations targeting militant strongholds and training camps in Kasserine.

Outlook: AQIM and affiliated groups will attack Tunisian security positions in order to retain safe havens in Kasserine.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)Violence threatens to undermine peace negotiations among signatories to the 2015 Algiers peace agreement in northern Mali. An improvised explosive device (IED) attack killed a commander of the Coordination for the Movement of Azawad (CMA), an ex-separatist coalition, as he left a meeting with MINUSMA officials in Kidal city on October 9.The Nigerian government’s claim that the Boko Haram insurgency is finished is an exaggeration. The Nigerian Air Force began an intensive bombing campaign targeting the last acknowledged Boko Haram stronghold in the Sambisa Forest, near the Cameroonian border. Foreign powers are coming forward with pledges of humanitarian assistance, but corruption in the federal and local government is preventing funds from improving conditions on the ground.

Outlook: Boko Haram is weak and fractured, but conditions on the ground will allow the insurgency to survive and resurge.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 04 OCT: Moroccan police arrested female ISIS militants in Rabat.2) 04 OCT: The Tunisian Army attacked a militant training camp near Mt. Samama, Kasserine.3) 06 OCT: Tunisian airstrikes targeted militants on Mt. Birinou, Kasserine.4) 09 OCT: ISIS Wilayat Jaza’ir bombed an Algerian military convoy in the Tamalous, Skikda.5) 10 OCT: AQIM and Uqba ibn Nafa’a militants attempted to attack the Tunisian National Guard in Khmouda, Kasserine.

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1) 05 OCT: The Nigerian Air Force commenced Operation Forest Storm in the Sambisa Forest, Borno State, Nigeria.2) 06 OCT: Ansar al Din conducted an IED attack targeting French forces near Abeibara, Mali. 3) 06 OCT: AQIM militants attacked a UN refugee camp in Tazalit, Niger. 4) 08 OCT: An IED killed a CMA commander in Kidal.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)