200220CelfinNutresa
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8/3/2019 200220CelfinNutresa http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/200220celfinnutresa 1/2 Earnings Preview 4Q: profit up 59% on lower COGS, non-ops Earnings Preview | Colombia Grupo Nutresa | Consumption – Revenues up, raw materials down Grupo Nutresa 17 February 2012 Jairo Agudelo [email protected] +574 320 4102 We expect Nutresa to report for 4Q11 on February 27. We forecast net profit up 59.3% YoY, at COP118,669mn (COP257.9/share), based on (i) lower costs of raw materials, and (ii) lower non-operational expenses, on lower financial expenses following the capital increase of July 2011. We expect 4Q revenues to be up 15.1% YoY , on the recovery of domestic demand, the continued strengthening of the Central American market and the market in the Southeast of the USA, and inclusion of Helados Bon in the results. t the USA, and inclusion of Helados Bon in the results. We expect to see Ebitda margin ~103bp higher YoY , at 12.5% in 4Q11, up from 11.5% in 4Q10, on the stronger revenues, with dilution of fixed costs, and lower prices of some raw materials . One of the divisions in which we expect to see significant recovery in the quarter is the cookies division, since we estimate the cost of wheat will be 15.6% lower YoY. We expect to see Ebitda margin ~103bp higher YoY , at 12.5% in 4Q11, up from 11.5% in 4Q10, on the stronger revenues, with dilution of fixed costs, and lower prices of some raw materials . One of the divisions in which we expect to see significant recovery in the quarter is the cookies division, since we estimate the cost of wheat will be 15.6% lower YoY. The raw materials in which prices have fallen include: The raw materials in which prices have fallen include: coffee (down 10.8% QoQ, though still up 3.9% YoY); wheat (down 23.8% QoQ, and 15.6%YoY); and cocoa (down 19.7% QoQ, and 16.4% YoY). Nutresa: 4Q11 earnings preview summary (COPmn) Period 4Q11E 4Q10 %YoY Sales 1,487,276 1,292,658 15.1 Gross profit 566,048 498,473 13.6 Operational profit 143,943 117,298 22.7 Ebitda 185,823 148,135 25.4 Pretax profit 122,942 73,101 68.2 Net profit 118,669 74,485 59.3 EPS 257.9 171.18 50. Gross margin (%) 38.1 38.6 Operational margin (%) 9.7 9.1 Ebitda margin (%) 12.5 11.5 Net margin (%) 8.0 5.8 Sources: Nutresa, Celfin Capital. verview ce (COP) 22,600 ting BUY (COP/share) 29,400 turn (%) 30.5 ares (mn) 460 Cap (US$mn) 5,919 ker (BB) NUTRESA CB recast (COPmn) 2012E 2013E venue 5,522,334 5,989,824 itda 694,237 778,801 t profit 392,455 458,244 (x) 18.1 15.5 V/Ebitda (x) 10.3 8.9 urce: Celfin Capital. ck price performance 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 0,000 ,000 ,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 F eb /1 1 May /1 1 A ug/ 11 No v/ 11 Nutr esa COL CAP urces: Bloomberg, Celfin Capital Food sales growth rates stable, potential for increase Colombia’s National Statistics Bureau (DANE) reports sales of food and non-alcoholic beverages up 6.9% YoY in October, and up 5.0% YoY in November, in nominal terms. This maintains a positive trend that supports organic growth for Nutresa ; but we see this growth as very moderate compared to the current growth of other sectors of the Colombian economy, and we are expecting to see this growth rate higher in the coming quarters.
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Earnings Preview
4Q: profit up 59% on lower COGS, non-ops
Earnings Preview | Colombia
Grupo Nutresa | Consumption
– Revenues up, raw materials downGrupo Nutresa17 February 2012
Jairo Agudelo [email protected]+574 320 4102
We expect Nutresa to report for 4Q11 on February 27. We forecast net profit up 59.3%YoY, at COP118,669mn (COP257.9/share), based on (i) lower costs of raw materials, and (ii)lower non-operational expenses, on lower financial expenses following the capital increase ofJuly 2011.
We expect 4Q revenues to be up 15.1% YoY , on the recovery of domestic demand, thecontinued strengthening of the Central American market and the market in the Southeast ofthe USA, and inclusion of Helados Bon in the results.
tthe USA, and inclusion of Helados Bon in the results.
We expect to see Ebitda margin ~103bp higher YoY , at 12.5% in 4Q11, up from 11.5% in4Q10, on the stronger revenues, with dilution of fixed costs, and lower prices of some rawmaterials . One of the divisions in which we expect to see significant recovery in the quarter isthe cookies division, since we estimate the cost of wheat will be 15.6% lower YoY.
We expect to see Ebitda margin ~103bp higher YoY , at 12.5% in 4Q11, up from 11.5% in4Q10, on the stronger revenues, with dilution of fixed costs, and lower prices of some rawmaterials . One of the divisions in which we expect to see significant recovery in the quarter isthe cookies division, since we estimate the cost of wheat will be 15.6% lower YoY.
The raw materials in which prices have fallen include:The raw materials in which prices have fallen include:coffee (down 10.8% QoQ, though still up 3.9% YoY);wheat (down 23.8% QoQ, and 15.6%YoY); andcocoa (down 19.7% QoQ, and 16.4% YoY).
Nutresa: 4Q11 earnings preview summary (COPmn) Period 4Q11E 4Q10 %YoYSales 1,487,276 1,292,658 15.1
Gross profit 566,048 498,473 13.6Operational profit 143,943 117,298 22.7Ebitda 185,823 148,135 25.4Pretax profit 122,942 73,101 68.2Net profit 118,669 74,485 59.3EPS 257.9 171.18 50. Gross margin (%) 38.1 38.6Operational margin (%) 9.7 9.1Ebitda margin (%) 12.5 11.5Net margin (%) 8.0 5.8Sources: Nutresa, Celfin Capital.
verview ce (COP) 22,600ting BUY (COP/share) 29,400turn (%) 30.5ares (mn) 460Cap (US$mn) 5,919ker (BB) NUTRESA CB
recast (COPmn) 2012E 2013Evenue 5,522,334 5,989,824
itda 694,237 778,801t profit 392,455 458,244(x) 18.1 15.5
V/Ebitda (x) 10.3 8.9urce: Celfin Capital.
ck price performance
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Feb /11 May /11 Aug/11 Nov/11
Nutr esa COL CAP
urces: Bloomberg, Celfin Capital
Food sales growth rates stable, potential for increaseColombia’s National Statistics Bureau (DANE) reports sales of food and non-alcoholicbeverages up 6.9% YoY in October, and up 5.0% YoY in November, in nominal terms.
This maintains a positive trend that supports organic growth for Nutresa ; but we see thisgrowth as very moderate compared to the current growth of other sectors of the Colombianeconomy, and we are expecting to see this growth rate higher in the coming quarters.
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Grupo Nutresa | Consumption
Research Team & Disclaimer
Celfin Capital Equity ResearchChile Peru Colombia
Cesar Perez-Novoa Isabel Darrigrandi Natalia AgudeloManaging Director: Strategy & Economics Senior Analyst: Metals & Mining Senior Analyst: Energy & Utilities
+562 490 5012 +562 490 5093 +574 320 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Tomas Gonzalez Hedmond Rios Jairo AgudeloSenior Analyst: Electric & Water Utilities, TMT Economist Senior Analyst: Industrials & Consumer
+562 490 5034 +562 713 4807 +574 320 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Alex Sadzawka Mario Arend Ruben ArismendySmall Caps Analyst: Industrials Chief Economist Analyst: Metals & Mining Exploration
+562 490 5448 +562 713 4903 +574 320 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Jeanne Marie Benoit Juan Camilo DauderSmall Caps Analyst: Consumer Economist / Senior Banks Analyst
+562 490 5304 +574 320 4100 [email protected] [email protected]
Andres Cardona
Analyst: Industrials+574 320 [email protected]
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