Project 2030 Update

The Aging of Minnesota’s Population

Implications for Action

October 2002

Project 2030 Update

Presentation

Demographic realities Implications Action needed to meet challenges

Minnesota’s Population by Age Group Percent Change: 1990 - 2000

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 74 75 to 84 85+

P ercent Change

Minnesotans 65+ will more than double between 2000 and 2050,

rising to 1.6 million.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Male

Female

Minnesotans 65+ remain in the labor force at higher than expected rates.

62000

64000

66000

68000

70000

72000

74000

76000

78000

80000

82000

expec ted 2000 ac tual 2000

Labor forcepartic ipation

Source: 2000 projections and 2000 Census

The Good News

1.3 million Minnesotans 65+ by 2030. Nearly 25% of the population. Largest untapped human resource in the

state. Individuals are continuing to work in

“retirement.” Vital Aging will be in vogue.

Minnesotans age 85+ will more than triple in the next 50 years.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

The number of Minnesotans 65+ living alone with more than double

between 2000 and 2030.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2010 2030 2050

Families provide 95% of all care needed by older persons. One-third of boomers will

not have children available.

95%

5%

Families

Agenc ies

Who provides care for frail older persons in 2000

Family support will be reduced by 2030.

Friends, neighbors and voluntary agencies must assume bigger role.

2030? Who provides care for frail older persons in 2030?

Caregiver ratios are already high in many counties, and will grow higher.

5.75

14.3

34.4737.29

49.09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Anoka Hennepin Faribault P ipestone Traverse

Caregiver Ratio = number 85+/number females 45-64 (2000 Census)

The “Not So Good” News

165,000 Minnesotans 85+ in 2030. Increase to 315,000 by 2050. A large number of these people will

need long-term care. Traditional sources of long-term care

will be overwhelmed. Families and workers will be in short

supply.

U.S. Personal Savings Rate1930 - 2001 declines to record lows.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

29

19

34

19

39

19

44

19

49

19

54

19

59

19

64

19

69

19

74

19

79

19

84

19

89

19

94

19

99

Percent of elderly* with sufficient income at normal retirement age to cover long-term

care costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1936-1940 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965

family

male

female

*Figures are for Kansas

The Bad News

265,000 persons 65+ will be women living alone with few family and personal resources.

Two-thirds of these women will not have adequate income to pay for health and long-term care costs.

Project 2030 Update

Implications Smaller families will need help to care for

older relatives. Large numbers of older persons without

families available will need assistance with long-term care.

Public sector will be overwhelmed. Other sectors will increase their role.

Project 2030 Update

2030 Themes Maximize people’s ability to meet their

own needs and age in place. Make all communities “age-friendly”

through physical design, strong social connections and integrated services.

Make creative use of aging population and invest in young people.

Project 2030 Update

What can we do as individuals? Prepare for our own retirement and old

age. Meet our obligations as caregivers. Support voluntary groups serving elderly

(because public sector will be overwhelmed).

Project 2030 Update

What can government do? Federal programs are essential

foundations for income and health care for the elderly.

Support informal networks of care and age-friendly communities.

Maintain safety net for those with inadequate personal resources.

Project 2030 Update

What can employers do? Promote flexibility in workplace to

accommodate changing definitions of work and retirement.

Review benefits in light of aging work force.

Consider eldercare and employee-paid long-term care insurance.

Project 2030 Update

What can voluntary agencies do? They will be called upon to be “family

substitute” for many elderly. They are key to state’s leadership in

social structures that work. Role must increase if public sector

reduces benefits and eligibility.

Outcomes in 2030

Individual preparation

Supportive communities

Supportive employers

Partnerships