Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

Regional Analysis & Outreach UnitAnalysis and Evaluation Office

Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

Kyle UphoffRegional Analysis & Outreach

Manager

Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)


About DEED’s Regional AnalystsCollaborate with regional stakeholders on new research

Extend access to DEED reports and statistics

Conduct presentations and training onregional economy and labor market

Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions”

Five regional analystsstationed across the state

http://www.mnworkforcecenter.org/field/index.htm


Economics is “a dreary, desolate and indeed quite abject and distressing science. What we might call the Dismal Science.”

-Thomas Carlyle, 1849

Our Labor Market EnvironmentDemographicsWealthIndustry MixGlobalizationTechnologyEconomic RestructuringOther….


RecessionsRecessions restructure economies- creative destruction at work.

Some industries will collapse and be selected out of the economySome industries will survive but drastically restructure operations

New technologyNew marketsNew products

Likewise- some occupations will collapse or be restructuredchanging skill sets

Recessions set the course for the future- jobs, consumption/prices, globalization, regional vitality, etc..

Employment Trends Over Ten Years

Feb-01

Jul-0

1Dec

-01

May-02Oct-0

2Mar-0

3

Aug-03Ja

n-04Ju

n-04Nov-04

Apr-05Sep

-05Feb

-06Ju

l-06Dec

-06

May-07Oct-0

7Mar-0

8

Aug-08Ja

n-09Ju

n-09Nov-09

Apr-10Sep

-10Feb

-11Ju

l-11

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

Employment (Feb. 2001=100)

Minnesota U.S.

Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Seems to have Stabilized

Sep-

07N

ov-0

7Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8Se

p-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09M

ar-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep-

09N

ov-0

9Ja

n-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0Se

p-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

Unemployment Rate: Minnesota and U.S., September 2007-August, 2011

US MN

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Unemployment Varies with Region


Industries losing jobs in MN over the last 3 years

Total Employment: -97,500 since Feb. 2008Construction: -24,650 (-34,100 in 4 years)Manufacturing: -35,600 (-41,000 in 4 years)Wholesale: -4,800Retail: -12,500Transportation: -650Information: -4,650Finance: -5,100Professional & Technical Services: -8,100Other Services: -4,450Government: -8,000


-1,022 jobs-2.8%

-975 jobs-3.3%

-5,233 jobs-3.7%

-1,229 jobs-1.5%

-2,595 jobs-4.4%

-2,778 jobs-5.9%

-9,659 jobs-6.0%

-574 jobs-3.1%

-1,151 jobs-2.1%

-3,225 jobs-6.4%

-89,898 jobs-5.5%

-9,498 jobs-4.1%

-5,360 jobs-5.1%

2-Year Employment ChangeBy EDR, 2007-09

Temp Agency Employment tells us Something about Total Employment

January-07

March-07

May-07

July-07

September-07

November-07

January-08

March-08

May-08

July-08

September-08

November-08

January-09

March-09

May-09

July-09

September-09

November-09

January-10

March-10

May-10

July-10

September-10

November-10

January-11

March-11

May-11

July-11-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Total Employment Temp Agency Employment

Some Industries are adding back jobs after 3 years of losses

Total Employment: +44,200Leisure & Hospitality: +12,350Healthcare: +9,100Employment Services: +5,250Transport. & Warehouse: +5,250Wholesale: +5,000Insurance: +2,300Education: +2,300Retail: +2,150Construction of Buildings: +1,700Machinery Mfg.: +1,350

Corporate HQ: +1,200Building Contractors: +1,200Fabricated Metal Mfg.: +800Computer Consulting: +550Transportation Mfg.: +450Food Mfg.: +400Banking: +300Medical Device Mfg.: +160Medical Supplies Mfg: +200Mining & Logging: +150

Industry Projections: MN, 2011-12

Total GovernmentReal Estate and Rental and Leasing

Other ServicesUtilitiesMining

Educational ServicesArts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Corporate HeadquartersConstruction

Finance and InsuranceProfessional and Technical Services

Transportation and WarehousingRetail Trade

Wholesale TradeAccommodation and Food Services

ManufacturingAdministrative and Waste ServicesHealth Care and Social Assistance

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

-1,850-306

-96-68

67719791828984

1,3011,318

2,4102,727

3,3694,064

4,9945,214

9,855


Employment During Recession and Recovery

2,600

2,650

2,700

2,750

2,800

2008 2009 2010 2011

Empl

oym

ent i

n Th

ousa

nds

Actual Projected

~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs

Late 2012

Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast,


Employment Decline Relative to Previous Recessions

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Months Before(-)/Since(+) Peak

1991

2001

1982

Post-War Average

Current Recession


Where are the jobs now? The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey:

Identify occupations in demand

Determine education and experience needed for job vacancies by region

Describe job vacancies in terms of:WagesBenefitsPart-time/full-timeTemporary/seasonal or permanent

Numbers and job titles of current openingswww.positivelyminnesota.com/Data_Publications/Data/All_Data_Tools/Job_Vacancy_Survey

What Industries Set Minnesota Apart and How are They Doing?

Industry Employment Change 2000-10 Employment Change 2007-09Printing -10,630 -7,733Computer & electronics mfg. -19,882 -6,939Animal production +2,103 +509Corporate Headquarters -1,425 +3,834Insurance +5,806 +2,675Miscellaneous Mfg. +2,678 -1,418Food Manufacturing -4,376 -640Wood Product Mfg. -6,249 -4,120Machinery Mfg. -14,728 -4,895Fabricated Metal Mfg. -12,776 --6,943

Paper Mfg. -4,604 -754

Mining -1,985 -2Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Analysis and Evaluation Office

Why are Distinguishing industries Important? Determine Wealth

Creation



Crop ProdAnimal Prod.Wood Mfg.Transportation Mfg.Wholesale TradeNursing Care Facilities

Crop Prod.ForestryUtilitiesHeavy ConstructionFood Mfg.Wood ProductsNursing Care Facilities

MiningForestryPaper Mfg.Water Transport.AccommodationNursing Care Facilities

Crop ProdAnimal Prod.Food Mfg.Fabricated Metal Mfg.Machinery MfgWholesale TradeBuilding Material StoresNursing Care Facilities

Crop ProdAnimal Prod.Construction of Bldgs.Food Mfg.Wood Mfg.Machinery MfgWholesale TradeWaste Mgmt.Nursing Care Facilities

Animal Prod.Food Mfg.PrintingNon-Metallic Mineral MfgFabricated Metal Mfg.Electrical Equip. Mfg.Furniture Mfg.

Animal Prod.Food Mfg.Leather Mfg.Non Metallic Mineral MfgComputer & Electronics Mfg.ClinicsNursing Care Facilities

Distinguishing IndustriesBy EDR, 2009


ForestryAnimal Prod.Food Mfg.Wood Mfg.Printing Furniture Mfg.Nursing CareAccommodation

ForestryAnimal Prod.Heavy ConstructionWood Mfg.Fabricated MetalNonstore RetailNursing Care

Animal Prod.Food Mfg.Paper Mfg.Fabricated Metal Machinery Mfg.Computer Mfg.Furniture Mfg.Nursing Care

Animal Prod.Food Mfg.PrintingNonmetallic Mineral Mfg.Primary Metal Mfg.Electrical Equip. Mfg.Nursing CareSocial Assistance

Animal Prod.Food Mfg.Wood Mfg.Machinery Mfg.Furniture Mfg.WholesaleTruckingNursing Care

PrintingComputer & Electronics Mfg.Miscellaneous Mfg.Air TransportRailroadsData Processing & HostingInsuranceCorporate Headquarters

Distinguishing IndustriesBy EDR, 2009

Job Vacancy Survey Findings

About 4 unemployed for every opening.Hiring demand is the highest for many healthcare-related occupations

Architecture & EngineeringComputersBusiness/Financial OperationsHealthcare practitionersPersonal ServicesHealthcare supportBldg/Grounds MaintenanceFood Preparation

54,670 total job openings in the Minnesota job market at time of survey (2Q, 2011)

The gap between opportunities and the jobless has widened but is

now closing

Q2, 20

01

Q4 ,20

01

Q2, 20

02

Q4, 20

02

Q2, 20

03

Q4, 20

03

Q2, 20

04

Q4, 20

04

Q2, 20

05

Q4, 20

05

Q2, 20

06

Q4, 20

06

Q2, 20

07

Q4, 20

07

Q2, 20

08

Q4, 20

08

Q2, 20

09

Q4, 20

09

Q2, 20

10

Q4, 20

10

Q2, 20

110

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0Job Vacancies vs. Unemployment Rate: Minnesota, 2001-2011

Job Vacancies

Job

Vaca

ncie

s

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Attributes of Metro Job Vacancies: Q2, 2011


Full Time

Requirin

g Post Seco

ndary Educat

ion

Requirin

g Experi

ence

Requirin

g Certific

ation or L

icense

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Available job openings require higher amounts of education

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Post Secondary Education No Experience Needed

Perc

ent J

ob O

peni

ngs i

n Me

tro

Unemployment by Education: U.S., August 2011


All Age 25+ Less than High School

HS Grad Some College College Grad0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

7.8%

14.3%

9.6%8.8%

4.3%

Unemployment by Age:U.S., August, 2011


16-19 years 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

25.4%

14.8%

9.5%7.7% 7.1% 6.6%


2009-19 Employment Projections for Minnesota

Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally).Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict:

Recessions, depressions, energy crises...WarsNatural DisasterTechnology changeBusiness ProcessesLegislation

Employment Projections: MN, 2009-19


ManufacturingInformation

UtilitiesMining

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingTransportation and Warehousing

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingWholesale Trade

Management of Companies and EnterprisesRetail Trade

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationGovernment

Other Services (Except Government)Finance and Insurance

ConstructionAccommodation and Food Services

Educational ServicesAdministrative Support and Waste Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical ServicesHealth Care and Social Assistance

-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Some Specific Industries will lose jobs


Telecommunications

Air Transportation

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

Plastics & Rubber Mfg.

Publishing Industries

Transportation Equipment Mfg.

Printing

Machinery Manufacturing

Fabricated Metal Mfg.

Computer and Electronics Mfg.

-8,000 -7,000 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0


Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment

2000?

Shift to Services

Not all bad.Services make up an increasingly large share of the value of manufactures.

Rolls Royce “Power by the Hour”

Skill sets need to shift beyond the shop floor or computer terminal.Specialization of products, careers and skills will be more important.


2009-19 Regional Employment Projections

+13,797 jobs, +8.9%

+26,602, +12.9%

+144,099 jobs, +8.5% +22,899 jobs, +8.9%

+10,409 jobs, +5.0%

+19,109 jobs, +7.6%


MN Occupational Projections: 2009-19

Farming, Fishing, and ForestryLegal

Architecture and EngineeringLife, Physical, and Social Science

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and MediaBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Protective ServiceInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair

Community and Social ServicesComputer and MathematicalConstruction and Extraction

Healthcare SupportTransportation and Material Moving

ProductionManagement

Education, Training, and LibraryBusiness and Financial Operations

Personal Care and ServiceHealthcare Practitioners and TechnicalFood Preparation and Serving Related

Sales and RelatedOffice and Administrative Support

-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

New Jobs Replacement Hires


Some Occupations will lose jobs…

Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks

Order Clerks

Office and Administrative Support Workers, Other

Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors

General and Operations Managers

Telemarketers

Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters,

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers

Farmers and Ranchers

Packers and Packagers, Hand

Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators

File Clerks

-1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0

Employment and Innovation

Time

Employment

IT Services?

Green Tech?Nanotech?

Computer Mfg?

CommoditizationMaturation or“the Golden Age”

Correction

Expansion/Speculation?

Inception

Microchips?

MortgageInnovations?

OnlineEducation?

Skill and Knowledge Areas for “In Demand” Jobs

Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:

Reading ComprehensionActive ListeningSpeakingWritingActive LearningCoordinationMonitoringInstructingCritical Thinking

Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:

Customer ServiceMathematicsClericalEducation/trainingEnglishSales/marketingPsychologyComputers/electronicsAdministration/management


Demographics: Labor Shortage? Not any time soon.

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

Employment Workforce

Empl

oym

ent &

Lab

orfo

rce


Labor Growth will Slow

MN Demographic Center


Minnesota is Aging

When will they retire?

How productive canthey be?

Will there be enough?


Rural America is bottoming out

MN Demographic Center

Aging will shift government priorities


Where can I get this information?Kyle Uphoff (RAO Manager): (651)-259-7185

Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320)-231-5174Northeast: Drew Digby (218)-723-4774Northwest: Nate Dorr (218)-333-8220Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651)-642-0728

[email protected] on LinkedIn

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Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

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