Project 2030 Update The Aging of Minnesota’s Population Implications for Action October 2002.
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Project 2030 Update The Aging of Minnesota’s Population Implications for Action October 2002
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Transcript of Project 2030 Update The Aging of Minnesota’s Population Implications for Action October 2002.
Project 2030 Update
The Aging of Minnesota’s Population
Implications for Action
October 2002
Project 2030 Update
Presentation
Demographic realities Implications Action needed to meet challenges
Minnesota’s Population by Age Group Percent Change: 1990 - 2000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 74 75 to 84 85+
P ercent Change
Minnesotans 65+ will more than double between 2000 and 2050,
rising to 1.6 million.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Male
Female
Minnesotans 65+ remain in the labor force at higher than expected rates.
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
80000
82000
expec ted 2000 ac tual 2000
Labor forcepartic ipation
Source: 2000 projections and 2000 Census
The Good News
1.3 million Minnesotans 65+ by 2030. Nearly 25% of the population. Largest untapped human resource in the
state. Individuals are continuing to work in
“retirement.” Vital Aging will be in vogue.
Minnesotans age 85+ will more than triple in the next 50 years.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
The number of Minnesotans 65+ living alone with more than double
between 2000 and 2030.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2010 2030 2050
Families provide 95% of all care needed by older persons. One-third of boomers will
not have children available.
95%
5%
Families
Agenc ies
Who provides care for frail older persons in 2000
Family support will be reduced by 2030.
Friends, neighbors and voluntary agencies must assume bigger role.
2030? Who provides care for frail older persons in 2030?
Caregiver ratios are already high in many counties, and will grow higher.
5.75
14.3
34.4737.29
49.09
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Anoka Hennepin Faribault P ipestone Traverse
Caregiver Ratio = number 85+/number females 45-64 (2000 Census)
The “Not So Good” News
165,000 Minnesotans 85+ in 2030. Increase to 315,000 by 2050. A large number of these people will
need long-term care. Traditional sources of long-term care
will be overwhelmed. Families and workers will be in short
supply.
U.S. Personal Savings Rate1930 - 2001 declines to record lows.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
29
19
34
19
39
19
44
19
49
19
54
19
59
19
64
19
69
19
74
19
79
19
84
19
89
19
94
19
99
Percent of elderly* with sufficient income at normal retirement age to cover long-term
care costs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1936-1940 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965
family
male
female
*Figures are for Kansas
The Bad News
265,000 persons 65+ will be women living alone with few family and personal resources.
Two-thirds of these women will not have adequate income to pay for health and long-term care costs.
Project 2030 Update
Implications Smaller families will need help to care for
older relatives. Large numbers of older persons without
families available will need assistance with long-term care.
Public sector will be overwhelmed. Other sectors will increase their role.
Project 2030 Update
2030 Themes Maximize people’s ability to meet their
own needs and age in place. Make all communities “age-friendly”
through physical design, strong social connections and integrated services.
Make creative use of aging population and invest in young people.
Project 2030 Update
What can we do as individuals? Prepare for our own retirement and old
age. Meet our obligations as caregivers. Support voluntary groups serving elderly
(because public sector will be overwhelmed).
Project 2030 Update
What can government do? Federal programs are essential
foundations for income and health care for the elderly.
Support informal networks of care and age-friendly communities.
Maintain safety net for those with inadequate personal resources.
Project 2030 Update
What can employers do? Promote flexibility in workplace to
accommodate changing definitions of work and retirement.
Review benefits in light of aging work force.
Consider eldercare and employee-paid long-term care insurance.
Project 2030 Update
What can voluntary agencies do? They will be called upon to be “family
substitute” for many elderly. They are key to state’s leadership in
social structures that work. Role must increase if public sector
reduces benefits and eligibility.
Outcomes in 2030
Individual preparation
Supportive communities
Supportive employers
Partnerships
