Post on 20-Jul-2020
Hello
James Cridland, Radio Futurologist
@jamescridlandfacebook.com/radiofuturologist
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Image: Pulse FM Ltd
Virgin Radio Ltd
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Images: Virgin Radio, BBC News, The Guardian
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Video: CNBC Asia
British Broadcasting Corporation
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Images: BBC, UK Radioplayer
Radio Futurologist (n) A writer, speaker, and consultant who works with broadcasters in Asia, Australia, Europe and North America to help them innovate and retain audience
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Today• Trends in radio’s future from across
the world
• Some graphs
• A few acronyms
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“Radio has no future.”
- Lord Kelvin, 1899
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“Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
- Lord Kelvin, 1899
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Photo: Novak Archive, 1934
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Photo: 1949, Flickr: ‘bigduck’
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Photo: WIRED, March 2005
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Glassford Graveyard, Jared Earle
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UK 90.0% RAJAR Q4/2015Adults 15+
Brisbane 92.7% GfK, Survey 1, 2016Adults 10+
Canada 88.1% Numeris, 2015Adults 12+, 0500-0100
USA 93.0% Neilsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015Adults 12+
Peninsular Malaysia GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016Adults 10+
tune in each week
Radio is still massive
Data: weekly listeners to radio in above markets: reach/cume
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97.0%
Tell people about this number
Data: Peninsular Malaysia; GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016 Adults 10+
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97.0%of Malaysians listen to the radio every week
Podcasts
MP3s, etc
Catchup radio2.0%
75.8%
1.0%5.1%
8.1%
2.0%
6.1% Spotify, etc
CDsCassette and vinyl
Live radio(AM/FM, DAB, IP)
UK - Share of Audio
Data: RAJAR Midas research, summer 2016
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Podcasts
TV Music Channels
61%
1%16%
5%2%
15% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc)
Other
Live radio(AM/FMSiriusXM & IP)
Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc
US - Share of Ear™
Data: Edison Research Share of Ear, Spring 2016 - some categories merged
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PodcastsTV Music Channels
68%
3%
14%
2%4%
10% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc)
Other
Live radio(AM/FMDAB+ & IP)
Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc
Australia - Share of Audio
Data: Commercial Radio Australia October 2016 - some categories merged
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Radio: a shared experience a human connection
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The way we listen to radio is changing
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Radio is going multiplatform
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Online and apps
Digital Television
DAB Digital Radio
FM or AM
8%
5.1%
32.2%
54.7% share of listening
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UK radio is going multi-platform
Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB Q2/2016
Source: RA JAR Q4/2011 - %age of total hours / TSL, excluding unknown platforms
DAB TV InternetTotal hours / TSL using
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radio.no
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25%
50%
75%
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
DAB+
FM
InternetDTV
Source: TNS Gallup - total hours as a percentage of radio listening
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Norway - switching off FM in 2017
Pop-up radio
and being cleverer with content
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‹#›
Analogue and digital Digital-only
UK: A set of additional, low-cost digital radio stations from existing commercial broadcaster to grow brand and appeal
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DIFFERENT MUSIC, SAME PRESENTER
LIVE LINK OASIS – LIVE FOREVER
THE CURE - LOVECATS
BLUR - PARKLIFE
FEEDER – BUCK ROGERS
TOM ROBINSON – 2-4-6-8 MOTORWAY
BEATLES – ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
STEPPENWOLF – BORN TO BE WILD
LIVE LINK KASABIAN – EEZ-EH
A-HA – THE SUN ALWAYS SHINES ON TV
KLF – WHAT TIME IS LOVE
BEYONCE – CRAZY IN LOVE
DAVID BOWIE – STAR MAN
JIMI HENDRIX – ALL ALONG THE WATCHTOWER
ROLLING STONES – THE LAST TIME
TEMPTATIONS – BALL OF CONFUSION
3’48” 4’50”
SINGLE SONG POSITIONS
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Tota
l hou
rs li
sten
ed
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB - total UK hours
118%
Main station
New digital brands
…resulting in twice the airtime to sell, and the UK’s biggest digital-only commercial radio station
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The way we make radio is changing
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1974: Millions of dollars for new radio studios
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2009: Virtual radio stations, with shared studios, playout systems and lots of hardware
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2010: Mixing, playout and transmission all in one suitcase
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2013: Playout, processing and encoding all in one computer
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2014: Playout and transmission using one smartphone, one transmitter, and one bucket
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2020: Playout, processing and encoding in millions of computers?
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•First: latest national and local newscast •Then into reports (from both), with as-live cues •App plays more stories it thinks you’ll like
“Atomisation” - stripping radio programmes into individual
component parts, with metadata
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•Tweaking NPR’s algorithms have more than doubled time-spent-listening in the app
•Data from this app is being used to help journalists write better cues
This app is making better radio for
everyone
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Lego-brickingjames@crid.land
Lego-brickingjames@crid.land
An opportunity to rethink the way we produce some of our radio stations: to re-examine “the primacy of live”, and produce a genuinely “connected-first” radio service that offers personalisation and production savings
aka: “Is there an alternative to the program grid?”
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On-demand
and archives
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97.1% of total time spent listening
is to live radio
2.9% on-demand radio
and podcasts
UK: On-demand versus live - total time spent listening
Data: RAJAR/IpsosMori MIDAS Spring 2016 | Photo: Lyrics and microphone, Marcos Fernandes Diaz
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Data: UK - Rajar Midas Survey Summer 2016
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100 million downloadsso far
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Source: Edison Research, Spring 2016
Subscribe and download automatically to listen later
3%
15%
23%
59%
Download manuallyto listen later
Don’t know
Click and listen immediately
Method used most often to listen to podcasts
Visualising radio
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Don’t believe the doomsayers: radio continues to be in great shape
The way we tune into radio is changing: this gives opportunities for broadcasters and clients
The way we make radio is changing: time to rethink how we make radio to best exploit all platforms, not just FM/DAB+; and rethink about the primacy of live radio
With new platforms, there are more opportunities than ever for clients and for audiences alike
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What is the
future of radio?
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Content
Technology User experience
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Photo: JC Hancock, Flickr
Twitter@jamescridland
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