james@crid · Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB...
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Hello James Cridland, Radio Futurologist @jamescridland facebook.com/radiofuturologist [email protected] Image: Pulse FM Ltd Virgin Radio Ltd [email protected] Images: Virgin Radio, BBC News, The Guardian [email protected] Video: CNBC Asia
Transcript of james@crid · Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB...
Hello
James Cridland, Radio Futurologist
@jamescridlandfacebook.com/radiofuturologist
Image: Pulse FM Ltd
Virgin Radio Ltd
Images: Virgin Radio, BBC News, The Guardian
Video: CNBC Asia
British Broadcasting Corporation
Images: BBC, UK Radioplayer
Radio Futurologist (n) A writer, speaker, and consultant who works with broadcasters in Asia, Australia, Europe and North America to help them innovate and retain audience
Today• Trends in radio’s future from across
the world
• Some graphs
• A few acronyms
“Radio has no future.”
- Lord Kelvin, 1899
“Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
- Lord Kelvin, 1899
[email protected] [email protected]
Photo: Novak Archive, 1934
Photo: 1949, Flickr: ‘bigduck’
UK 90.0% RAJAR Q4/2015Adults 15+
Brisbane 92.7% GfK, Survey 1, 2016Adults 10+
Canada 88.1% Numeris, 2015Adults 12+, 0500-0100
USA 93.0% Neilsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015Adults 12+
Peninsular Malaysia GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016Adults 10+
tune in each week
Radio is still massive
Data: weekly listeners to radio in above markets: reach/cume
97.0%
Tell people about this number
Data: Peninsular Malaysia; GfK, RAM Wave 2, 2016 Adults 10+
97.0%of Malaysians listen to the radio every week
Podcasts
MP3s, etc
Catchup radio2.0%
75.8%
1.0%5.1%
8.1%
2.0%
6.1% Spotify, etc
CDsCassette and vinyl
Live radio(AM/FM, DAB, IP)
UK - Share of Audio
Data: RAJAR Midas research, summer 2016
Podcasts
TV Music Channels
61%
1%16%
5%2%
15% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc)
Other
Live radio(AM/FMSiriusXM & IP)
Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc
US - Share of Ear™
Data: Edison Research Share of Ear, Spring 2016 - some categories merged
PodcastsTV Music Channels
68%
3%
14%
2%4%
10% Streaming Audio (Spotify, Pandora, etc)
Other
Live radio(AM/FMDAB+ & IP)
Owned files: CDs, MP3s, etc
Australia - Share of Audio
Data: Commercial Radio Australia October 2016 - some categories merged
Radio: a shared experience a human connection
The way we listen to radio is changing
[email protected] [email protected]
Radio is going multiplatform
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Online and apps
Digital Television
DAB Digital Radio
FM or AM
8%
5.1%
32.2%
54.7% share of listening
UK radio is going multi-platform
Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB Q2/2016
Source: RA JAR Q4/2011 - %age of total hours / TSL, excluding unknown platforms
DAB TV InternetTotal hours / TSL using
radio.no
25%
50%
75%
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
DAB+
FM
InternetDTV
Source: TNS Gallup - total hours as a percentage of radio listening
Norway - switching off FM in 2017
Pop-up radio
and being cleverer with content
[email protected] [email protected]
‹#›
Analogue and digital Digital-only
UK: A set of additional, low-cost digital radio stations from existing commercial broadcaster to grow brand and appeal
DIFFERENT MUSIC, SAME PRESENTER
LIVE LINK OASIS – LIVE FOREVER
THE CURE - LOVECATS
BLUR - PARKLIFE
FEEDER – BUCK ROGERS
TOM ROBINSON – 2-4-6-8 MOTORWAY
BEATLES – ACROSS THE UNIVERSE
STEPPENWOLF – BORN TO BE WILD
LIVE LINK KASABIAN – EEZ-EH
A-HA – THE SUN ALWAYS SHINES ON TV
KLF – WHAT TIME IS LOVE
BEYONCE – CRAZY IN LOVE
DAVID BOWIE – STAR MAN
JIMI HENDRIX – ALL ALONG THE WATCHTOWER
ROLLING STONES – THE LAST TIME
TEMPTATIONS – BALL OF CONFUSION
3’48” 4’50”
SINGLE SONG POSITIONS
Tota
l hou
rs li
sten
ed
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Source: RAJAR/Ipsos MORI/RSMB - total UK hours
118%
Main station
New digital brands
…resulting in twice the airtime to sell, and the UK’s biggest digital-only commercial radio station
The way we make radio is changing
1974: Millions of dollars for new radio studios
2009: Virtual radio stations, with shared studios, playout systems and lots of hardware
2010: Mixing, playout and transmission all in one suitcase
2013: Playout, processing and encoding all in one computer
2014: Playout and transmission using one smartphone, one transmitter, and one bucket
2020: Playout, processing and encoding in millions of computers?
•First: latest national and local newscast •Then into reports (from both), with as-live cues •App plays more stories it thinks you’ll like
“Atomisation” - stripping radio programmes into individual
component parts, with metadata
•Tweaking NPR’s algorithms have more than doubled time-spent-listening in the app
•Data from this app is being used to help journalists write better cues
This app is making better radio for
everyone
An opportunity to rethink the way we produce some of our radio stations: to re-examine “the primacy of live”, and produce a genuinely “connected-first” radio service that offers personalisation and production savings
aka: “Is there an alternative to the program grid?”
On-demand
and archives
97.1% of total time spent listening
is to live radio
2.9% on-demand radio
and podcasts
UK: On-demand versus live - total time spent listening
Data: RAJAR/IpsosMori MIDAS Spring 2016 | Photo: Lyrics and microphone, Marcos Fernandes Diaz
Data: UK - Rajar Midas Survey Summer 2016
100 million downloadsso far
Source: Edison Research, Spring 2016
Subscribe and download automatically to listen later
3%
15%
23%
59%
Download manuallyto listen later
Don’t know
Click and listen immediately
Method used most often to listen to podcasts
Visualising radio
Don’t believe the doomsayers: radio continues to be in great shape
The way we tune into radio is changing: this gives opportunities for broadcasters and clients
The way we make radio is changing: time to rethink how we make radio to best exploit all platforms, not just FM/DAB+; and rethink about the primacy of live radio
With new platforms, there are more opportunities than ever for clients and for audiences alike
What is the
future of radio?
Content
Technology User experience
Photo: JC Hancock, Flickr
Twitter@jamescridland
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