FEWS: A Forecasting Environment

Reservoir System Modeling Technologies Conference

February 22, 2012

Edwin WellesDeltares USA

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Presentation Overview

• Characteristics of any forecast system • Description of FEWS, a multi-purpose forecast environment

• Example FEWS applications

Forecast Systems

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The Goal of a Forecast System

Linking Good Science to ....

– Water Supply Managers– Planning Agencies– Regulators– Policymakers– Operational Forecasting– Emergency Managers– Public

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01-01-03 19-02-03 09-04-03 28-05-03 16-07-03 03-09-03 22-10-03 10-12-03datum

afvo

er [

m3 /s

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Gaarkeuken_metingGaarkeuken_v2.0_finalGaarkeuken_v1.1.2.

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Elements of a Forecast System

Forecaster, Planner, Custodian...

Get data

Run/control models

Assess data and model guidance

Scientific Assessment

Public Decision?

User (Warnings, Releases, ...)Public Action

Other Scientists and Operators

FEWS: Introduction and Architecture Delft – Flood Early Warning System

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coastal WQ

Wide Variety of Applications

water quality

floods &water supply

real time control

lakes & reservoirs

groundwater

dike strength

storm surge navigation

Delft FEWSUser Community

in developmentoperational, status unknown

operational service

• USA (BPA, NWS)• Canada• UK• Netherlands• Germany• Switzerland• Italy• Austria• Spain• Singapore• Taiwan• Mekong River Commission• Korea• Australia• Sudan• Zambezi• Mexico• Brazil

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webserver

webbrowser webbrowser

Schematic Overview of FEWS

Users

Established configurationfor computations and displays

Disseminating Information

DATA

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General Adapter Module

Running models – how does it work

local datastore

FEWS

model

native files(txt)

native files(txt)

xml files(PI)

export

xml files(PI)

pre-adapter run post-adapterrun

model

run

import

FEWS: Model Control

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Situational Awareness

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Model Connectivity

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Model Execution and Display

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Control of Model Input, States, Options

FEWS: Displays

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Customized Icons for the New England flood

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Threshold crossings

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Ensemble forecasting in England & Wales

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Ensemble streamflow forecasting at BPA

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Uncertainty: Performance Indicators

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FEWS: Longitudinal Display

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FEWS: System Display (1)

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FEWS: System Display (2)

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Prototype forecast system for cooling water

water levels

Excess Temperature

• From North Sea to Basel• 3D in part of Hollandsch Diep

estuary• 2D till Hagestein and Dreumel• 1D-2D-3D coupling under FEWS!

Can also model salinity with this setup

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Animation of flow fields

Thank You