Applications of FEWS-HYMOS inIndonesia

Ronald Vernimmen

15 June 2010

Outline

FEWS-HYMOS: Introduction

Example applications

F(D)EWS – Flood (drought) forecasting shell

What is F(D)EWS?

F(D)EWS = Flood (Drought) Early Warning System

Philosophy• A framework for the organization of flood (drought) forecasting

process• Integration of data from several sources – present single source to

forecaster• Provides general functional utilities• Open interface to models used for forecasting• Dissemination of results

Delft-FEWS is an open system – joint development approachFEWS model!

HYMOS

What is HYMOS?

HYMOS = HYdrological MOdel System

• Information system for storage, processing and presentation ofhydrological time series

• Includes powerful tools for validation, completion, analysis,presentation

• Additional application modules for simulation of hydrologicalprocesses are available, such as Sacramento (Rainfall-Runoffmodelling)

Providing the forecaster an interface to data…

Simple graphical user interfaceSelf explanatory

Key features• GIS Based• Overview of data & status

FEWS Scotland – flood status in several catchments, January 2008

FEWS Donau (Austria) – Graphs at key stations

Data visualisation and editing – Graphical data

Powerful graphical tools for viewingtime series data

Point time seriesLongitudinal profiles (animated)

Editing capabilities –copy to-from e.g. Excel

Historical event at Torwinny, Scotland

Longitudinal Display

Data visualisation – GIS Data

Animate Flood Inundation Map

Integration of data

Interfaces to data sources• Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF etc.• Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI)• Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats• Emerging standards: WaterML – OpenGIS standard for exchange

of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI)

Modular approach

Models integrated

Wide range of models integrated– extending continuously

Hydrological (snow models,rainfall-runoff, routing)

Hydraulic (1D, 2D)

Lookup models

Model Type Supplier/Owner Country

ISIS Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK

PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK

KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK

PACK Snow Melt CEH UK

ARMA Error Correction CEH UK

PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK

TRITON Surge propagation/Overtopping PlanB UK

TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK

STF Transfer functions EA UK

DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK

MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK

Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK

Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark

NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark

TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy

HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden

Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA

SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA

HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA

HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation USACE USA

Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA

SAC-SMA Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA

Unit-HG Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA

LAG/K Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

SARROUTE Routing (hydrological) NWS USA

SSARRESV Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

RESSNGL Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

RES-J (Multiple) Reservoir Simulation NWS USA

PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany

SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany

Model Type Supplier/Owner Country

SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands

SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands

DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands

Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands

REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands

DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands

Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria

URBS rainfall-runoff and hydrological routing Don Caroll Australia

Generating products

Overview Reports Detailed Reports

HTML Web reportsInternal & External clients

Using and displaying probabilistic data

Delft FEWS database model is inherrently ensemble aware• Import ensemble data (e.g. ECMWF, COSMO-LEPS)• Run models for ensemble members• results

• statistical summary• verification

FEWS-CH:COSMO-LEPS Forecast for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

FEWS-CH:SRNWP-PEPS Forecast for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

Some example applications

• Drought Early Warning System – Indonesia (pilot)• Hymos-FEWS 6 Ci’s• Hydrological Monitoring System Kalimantan

Drought Early Warning System - Indonesia

• using global datasets in data scarce areas (SRTM, GlobCover,TRMM, weather forecasts)

• determine drought conditions• use crop drought indicators (still to be implemented)• use distributed hydrological model to simulate and predict reservoir

inflow

• other applications: peat fire risk

1. (Land Use) Land Cover

GlobCover, MERIS instrument on board ENVISAT, December 2004 – June2006, global and regional sets, 300 m resolution, version 2.2, July 2009Download: http://ionia1.esrin.esa.int/index.asp

2. DEM

SRTM, 2000, 90 m resolution (although 30 m is available for governments),vertical 1 m resolution, vertical error 16 m, not DTM but DSM, version 4(2008)

Download: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/

but also ASTER GDEM (2009) (for Indonesia not always good; clouds)

3. Precipitation

TRMM, 0.25 degree resolution, near real-time available, 3 hr temporalresolution, since 2002

Download: http://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/

GSMaP, 0.10 degree resolution, 1 hr temporal resolution, 2003-2006, since2007 near real time

Download: http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/

but also PERSIANN, CMORPH

Important to validate these data against measurements when available!

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

Using satellite precipitation observations of TRMM

Bi-weekly rainfall total for each Indonesian watershed

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

30 day precipitation deficit

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

reporting

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

example of results from the hydrological and reservoir model.Reservoir inflows, outflows, water levels and reservoir volume

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

example of results from the hydrological and reservoir model.Reservoir inflows, outflows, water levels and reservoir volume

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

example of results from the hydrological and reservoir model.Reservoir inflows, outflows, water levels and reservoir volume

Drought Early Warning System (pilot Indonesia)

HYMOS-FEWS 6 Ci’s

• 6 river basins in West Java• Use FEWS as hydrological database• Use HYMOS to validate the hydrological data• Use FEWS to perform data transformations: aggregation, spatial

interpolation (Thiessen, inverse distance), areal averageprecipitation based on polygons (catchments), time series creationfor models (Sobek, Ribasim, …)

• system basis for further analysis, rainfall runoff modelling, effectsof spatial planning / urbanisation on water demand etc.