Case-Study: Use of satellite remotely sensed data integrated with livelihood information in support of food security

monitoring and early warning in the Sool & Sanaag pastoral region of Somalia

Gideon Galu (USGS/FEWS NET)(ggalu@fews.net)

Mohammed AwDahir (FEWS NET/FSAU)(mawdahir@fews.net)

Study Objective

Demonstrate the use of satellite and available field information:

Drought, Flood and Land-Cover

Change Monitoring

&

its impact on Pastoral Livelihoods….

Justification

Sool & Nugaal Pastoral Communities were at the brink of collapse….

(UN Inter-Agency Assessment Mission Report, 2003)

This humanitarian crisis situation was linked to persistent drought affecting primary source of livelihoods of the local

communities: transhumant pastoralism… (FSAU, 2001 & Horn Relief,2006)

……. seven failed rainfall seasons

Study Approach: Satellite + Field data inputs..

1. Determination of Drought Severity, Extent and Cycle(s)

• NOAA/NDVI (1982-2004) and MODIS/NDVI• WRSI/Rangeland products (NEW)• CPC/Rainfall Estimates

2. Determination of Environmental Change and impact

• Landcover time-series change analysis (Landsat: 1986 - 2000)

• Human settlements and migration patterns• Water points location and distribution

3. Impact assessment of the recent drought on livelihoods

• Affected populations• Income-sources

4. Conclusion

Resources…

+http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/ADDShttp://www.fsau.org

http://www.fews.net

Study Area : Sool & Sanaag

0 25 50 75 100 125 Kilometers

Gulf of Eden

India

n Oce

an

KE

NY

A

ETHIO

PIA

Somalia: Most affected populations, Sool plateau

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Er i gavo

Gar do

El Af wei n I skushuban

Badhan

Tal ehXudun

Lasanod

Bosaso

Al ul a

Kandal a

CaynabaBender Bei l a

BOSSASO

CEERIGAABO

LAS CAANOOD

XUDUN

QARDHO

TALEEXCAYNABO

CALUULA

XAAFUUN

BARGAAL

KANDALA

LAS QORAY

Dan Gorayo

ISKUSHUBAN

CEEL AFWEYN

BANDER BEYLA

<Empty Picture>

N

FAO/FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT - Somalia

Secondary road

Major road

FOOD ECONOMY ZONES

Coastal Deeh: SheepEast Golis Pastoral: Frankinncense

Gagaab Pastoral: FrankincenseGuban Pastoral: Sheep, goats & camel

Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats

Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral: Sheep, goats, camel

Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel

Potato zone & vegetables

Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats

Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: Sheep, goats & vegetables

West Golis Pastoral: Goats, camel, sheep

Area of ConcernLegend;

Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

Food and Income Sources and ExpenditureFood Sources

Gifts8%

Staple purchase49%

Non-staple purchase

19%

Meat3%

Milk21%

Income Sources

Remittances2%

Self employment22%

Milk & Dairy33%

Livestock sales31%

Labour12%

Expenditure

Staple purchase

38%

Water10%

Household items21% Non-staple

food purchase

16%

Drugs, transport,

taxes15%

Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

Satellite are good at monitoring change…

and NOT

Absolute quantities…..

Why Use Satellite Observation Trends?

NDVI Departure from Normal(%): Drought Monitoring

ThresholdThreshold

Source: USGS/FEWS NET and FSAU publication

1. 10 year severe drought-cycle (1981/3,1991/3, 2001/3).

2. Short-lived recovery periods.

3. Drought threshold of NDVI % dep. ≤ -10% for at least 2 years.

1996 – 2006 Rangeland/WRSI Anomalies (%) : Sool & Gebi Plateau

Drought Monitoring

Failure

Normal

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Complete to partial failure

WRSI Anom ≤ 50%, is failure for at least 2 years

1996/2006 Rainfall Performance : Sool & Nugaal

From droughts to floods, a recurrent cycle?

2000:

Brief Recovery

Period

SOOL & NUGAAL PLATEAU: RAINFALL PERFORMANCE (1996 - 2007)

-200

300

800

1300

1800

2300

JAN

1/19

96

JUL1

/199

6

JAN

1/19

97

JUL1

/199

7

JAN

1/19

98

JUL1

/199

8

JAN

1/19

99

JUL1

/199

9

JAN

1/20

00

JUL1

/200

0

JAN

1/20

01

JUL1

/200

1

JAN

1/20

02

JUL1

/200

2

JAN

1/20

03

JUL1

/200

3

JAN

1/20

04

JUL1

/200

4

JAN

1/20

05

JUL1

/200

5

JAN

1/20

06

JUL1

/200

6

JAN

1/20

07

Dekads

RFE

(mm

)

Sool: %Dep

Nugaal:%Dep

El-Nino 1997/8:

Severe floods,

Disease,

Livestock Trade Ban

2001/3:

Severe Droughts;

7-Failed Rainfall Seasons

2005/6:

Brief Recovery Period ?

2004:

Severe floods

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

2001/4 Rainfall Performance : Sool & Nugaal Plateau

From droughts to floods, a recurrent cycle?

1. Complete to partial rainfall failure from Gu 2001 - Deyr 20032. Drought threshold of RFE % dep. ≤ -50% for at least 2 years

Water is the most pressing humanitarian need……..

Source: USGS/FEWS NET and UN Inter-Agency Assessment Report (2003)

Water Resource Monitoring

Cost of water rose by 350%

Landsat : 1986 – 2000 Sool & Nugaal Plateau

Negative Land Cover Change

…using simple band differencing method done using satellite images of the area acquired in 1986 and 2000, almost 38% (22,550 Km2) of the Sool Plateau has experienced negative change (RCMRD,2006)

Negative change in vegetation cover

Preliminary Analysis Results:

The dominant land use / land cover types in this area are Shrublands, Woodlands, and Herbaceous Vegetation.

Proliferation of Water-points with MODIS/NDVI Background

(Data Source: USGS/EDC, GTZ, SWIMS, SWALIM/Toposheet)

Source: USGS/FEWS NETMore Dense in the relatively drier parts of the region

Seasonal Livestock Migration Patterns

(Data Source: FSAU/FEWS NET)

Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

Estimated Population Distribution using Landscan (2005)

(Data Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory-ORNL)

Environmental Study of Degradation in the Sool Plateau & Gebi Valley

Supported by Oxfam Netherlands: NOVIB

Confirms Land degradation possible due to:

1. Recurrent Drought & floods

2. Proliferation of water points

3. Increased Human settlements

4. Deforestation

5. Overgrazing

Degraded prime grasslands of Bocooda

Deforestation through charcoal burning at Galool (2005)

Impact on Livelihoods in 2001/3

o Livestock loss due to droughts/floods; 60 - 70% in 2001/3

o Decline in livestock sale prices; 60 – 70 %

o Decline in milk production ; little/no

o Increased expenditure; water up by 350%

o Inability to recover due to absence of successive good seasons;

o Recurrent disasters have a negative impact on coping mechanisms as they limit coping options; increased charcoal burning, remittances and debts.

o Environmental degradation limiting the capacity of land to support livestock and other productive activity;

o Change in livelihood systems or destitution due to disasters ?

Typical Typical YearYear

Environmental Environmental ‘Hazards’‘Hazards’Hazard Livelihood

effect

Recurrent Drought

Food stocks lost

Income lost

Markets lost

Floods Livestock lost

Food stocks lost

Effects of Effects of Hazards on Hazards on

Income sourcesIncome sources

Impact on Livelihoods?

Recurrent Droughts and Floods undermine livelihoods…

Land Degradation

CONCLUSION

1. Demonstrated potential use of freely available SRS and Field Information (LZ) in monitoring recurrent droughts, floods…

2. Potential wide application, in GHA pastoral regions..

3. Need for long-term development initiative in these chronically food insecure areas..