FEWS: A Forecasting Environment - BPA.gov Business/TechnologyInnovation... · FEWS: A Forecasting...
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FEWS: A Forecasting Environment Reservoir System Modeling Technologies Conference February 22, 2012 Edwin Welles Deltares USA
Transcript of FEWS: A Forecasting Environment - BPA.gov Business/TechnologyInnovation... · FEWS: A Forecasting...
FEWS: A Forecasting Environment
Reservoir System Modeling Technologies Conference
February 22, 2012
Edwin WellesDeltares USA
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Presentation Overview
• Characteristics of any forecast system • Description of FEWS, a multi-purpose forecast environment
• Example FEWS applications
Forecast Systems
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The Goal of a Forecast System
Linking Good Science to ....
– Water Supply Managers– Planning Agencies– Regulators– Policymakers– Operational Forecasting– Emergency Managers– Public
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01-01-03 19-02-03 09-04-03 28-05-03 16-07-03 03-09-03 22-10-03 10-12-03datum
afvo
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m3 /s
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Gaarkeuken_metingGaarkeuken_v2.0_finalGaarkeuken_v1.1.2.
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Elements of a Forecast System
Forecaster, Planner, Custodian...
Get data
Run/control models
Assess data and model guidance
Scientific Assessment
Public Decision?
User (Warnings, Releases, ...)Public Action
Other Scientists and Operators
FEWS: Introduction and Architecture Delft – Flood Early Warning System
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coastal WQ
Wide Variety of Applications
water quality
floods &water supply
real time control
lakes & reservoirs
groundwater
dike strength
storm surge navigation
Delft FEWSUser Community
in developmentoperational, status unknown
operational service
• USA (BPA, NWS)• Canada• UK• Netherlands• Germany• Switzerland• Italy• Austria• Spain• Singapore• Taiwan• Mekong River Commission• Korea• Australia• Sudan• Zambezi• Mexico• Brazil
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webserver
webbrowser webbrowser
Schematic Overview of FEWS
Users
Established configurationfor computations and displays
Disseminating Information
DATA
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General Adapter Module
Running models – how does it work
local datastore
FEWS
model
native files(txt)
native files(txt)
xml files(PI)
export
xml files(PI)
pre-adapter run post-adapterrun
model
run
import
FEWS: Model Control
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Situational Awareness
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Model Connectivity
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Model Execution and Display
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Control of Model Input, States, Options
FEWS: Displays
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Customized Icons for the New England flood
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Threshold crossings
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Ensemble forecasting in England & Wales
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Ensemble streamflow forecasting at BPA
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Uncertainty: Performance Indicators
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FEWS: Longitudinal Display
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FEWS: System Display (1)
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FEWS: System Display (2)
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Prototype forecast system for cooling water
water levels
Excess Temperature
• From North Sea to Basel• 3D in part of Hollandsch Diep
estuary• 2D till Hagestein and Dreumel• 1D-2D-3D coupling under FEWS!
Can also model salinity with this setup
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Animation of flow fields
Thank You
