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High School Graduate TrendsWICHE’s Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates, 9th Ed.Peace Bransberger / knocking.wiche.edu
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Fewer Grads in Total; More non-White Grads
Projected number compared to 2012‐13, last confirmed year.
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Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads
285466 440199 449654
918791
1.6M1.9M 1.8M 1.7M
1.6M
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031
3.44M 3.46M 3.59M
1992 2007 2025 20322013
Total
White
HispanicBlackPrivate schoolsAsian/Pacific Isl.American Indian
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Regional Variation
2000‐2013
2013‐2025
South 2.6% 0.6%West 2.1% 0.2%Midwest 0.8% ‐0.4%Northeast 1.6% ‐0.5%
Avg. Annual Change
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Growth or Decline
Fewer graduates About the same More graduates
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Growth Regions
• Additional grads from Texas and Florida account for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025
• California may have seen its high year, or very near so
• Whether growing or contracting, state trends largely driven by Hispanic grad trends
– In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s
West
South
(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)
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Regions in Decline
• 24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high projected
– 14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high
– 10 states are in perpetual decline
• 16 of the states with little increase or none at all are in the Midwest and Northeast
Midwest
(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)
Northeast
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2030Nation: -4.0%
2025Nation: +4.7%
2020Nation: -0.1%
Compared to 2013by State
See Knocking pages 20‐23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020Midwest Northeast South West
Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020. Fewer About the same More
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025
Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025. Fewer About the same More
Midwest Northeast South West
Total Graduates, 2013 to 2032
Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2032. Fewer About the same More
Midwest Northeast South West
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Racial/Ethnic Diversity
White Hispanic Black Asian American Indian
Private schools
Fewer White graduates bring down the total,
but there are additional graduates in virtually
every state.
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Increase for Most States in the South
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.
Private
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Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.
Private
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The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate IncreasesBut Steep Downturn of White Graduates
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.
Private
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Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.
White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.
Private
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Dampening Effect of Lower Male & Minority High School Graduation Rates
Male & Female Graduate Projections, forthcoming September 2017
And a few other data points…
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First Generation Students
Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015
Race/Ethnicity
Total Millions
Parent with Assoc. or Higher
White 26.9 61%
Hispanic 12.1 25%
Asian 2.4 70%
Black 6.7 35%
Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 104.70, from American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012
Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 2012 ACS PUMS file.
Income TotalMillions
Parent with Assoc. or Higher
All Families 11.9 47%
< 200% Fed. Poverty Level
7.9 21%
>= FPL 4.0 68%
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Income Distribution of Households With Children,
U.S., 2010-2014
Students from Lesser Means
Medians HHs with children-- All Households
Distribution (95% of families)Each bar segment is 20% of the families
American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates
$65K$79K $91K
$37K $42K
$0K
$50K
$100K
$150K
$200K
$250K
$300K
$350K
All Races
White20M
Asian1.8M
Black4.3M
Hispanic6.6M
State data on State Profiles
426K more graduates from families with lower than
average income
138K more from families with higher than
average income
37K fewer from families below average income
100K fewer from families above average income
Change in Graduates by 2025& Median Family Income 2014
Diffe
rence in HSG
s from 201
4 to 202
4
Median Income by State & Race, Households with Children, 2014
Amer. Ind. Asian/Pac.Is. Black HispanicWhite
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