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Proses terbentuknya Kehati
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Interaksi lingkungan yang mendukung
terdapatnya kehati
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SIKLUS EKOSISTEM
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NICHE
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Apakah kehati dapat punah?
meskipun kehati merupakan sumberdaya alam
yang renewable, tetapi memiliki batas minimal
populasi untuk mempertahankan dirinya dari
ancaman kepunahan (jika kondisinya di bawah
nilai minimum viable population)
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Trend ancaman kepunahan kehati
Source: Global Environmental Outlook 3 (UNEP)
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Perlu Risk Assesment
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Risk
The expectation value of losses (death, injury,
extinct, etc), that would be caused by a hazard
Probability of a loss, and this depend on three
elements, hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.
If any of these three elements in risks
increases or decreases, then the risk increases
or decreases respectively (Crichton, 1999)
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Ancaman (hazard)
Kejadian yang berpotensi menyebabkan
hilangnya kehati
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Hazard
The probability of occurence of
a potentially damaging
phenomenon within a giventime period and area (EEA, 2005)
The probability of occurence assosiated with
an extreme event that can cause a failure(UNDRO, 1991; Plate, 2002)
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Ancaman terhadap kepunahan kehati
Over-eksploitasi SDA
Konversi lahan
Pencemaran lingkungan
Monokulturisasi
Hilangnya habitat
Introduksi sspesies eksotik
Revolusi hijau (rekayasa genetika danintensifikasi)
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TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARD
I. Natural Hazards:
1. Atmospheric
2. Hydrological
3. Volcanic
4. Seismic
5. Marine
6. Mass movement7. Gravity
II. Biological Hazards:
1. Epidemic
2. Plant disease
3. Pest
III. Anthropogenic H:
1. Technological2. Structural
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Resilience
A measure of the recovery time of a system(Correira et all, 1987)
The capacity to recover from emergencies,
and as a counterbalance to vulnerability(Buckle, 1998)
The ability to absorb the impact of bussiness
interruption, and continue to provide aminimum acceptable level of service (DisasterRecovery Journal, 2005)
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Vulnerability
The characteristics of an
individual or group in term
of their capacity toanticipate, cope with,
resist and recover from
the impact of naturalor man-made hazard
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Capacity
The ability to cope with threats includes the
ability to absorb by guarding against oradapting to them. Its also includes provisionsmade in advance to pay for potential
damages, for instance by mobilyzing insurancerepayments, savings or contingency reserves
(UNEP, 2002)
B i lik i t k
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Bagaimana aplikasinya untuk
assessment kehati?
Objek kehatinya?
Potensi ancaman?
Kerentanan dan resiliensi?
Kapasitas SDM?
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Buat kerangka assessment
Problem formulation
Object assessment
Conseptual models
Analysis plan
Analysis Characteristic of object
Characteristic of ecological effect
Analysis berween both
Risk characterization Risk estimation
Risk description
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Model analisis risiko
Modeling
Iconic Model
Conceptual Model
Analogue Model
Mathematical Model
Scoring Terrain Units Spatial Analysis
Field SurveyIdentification & Interview
- Morpho-indicator
- Bio-indicator
- Sosio-indicator
Risk
Assessment
Risk
Management
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Observasi kehati Bahaya potensial Vulnerability
Risk Assessment
Penerimaan Risiko
Risiko ditolak Risiko dpt diterima
Manajemen risiko:
Meminimalkan risiko bencana
melalui pengelolaan kawasan
konservasi
Kerangka pikir risk assessmentdan risk management untuk kehati
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Conservation area
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Bencana kepunahan kehati akibat erupsi Merapi
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Manajemen risiko bencana kepunahan kehati
H (hazard) : antropogenik, proses alam
V (vulnerability) : daya lenting, adaptable
v (value) : peluang utk punah
1. Menetapkan kawasan perlindungan (in-situ/ek-situ)
2. Peningkatan habitat
3. Peningkatan populasi satwa liar
4. Penguatan kapasitas SDM
1. PKK berbasis risiko bencana kepunahan
2. Trend habitat
3. Trend populasi satwa liar
4. SDM Profesional
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Tabel Kriteria Kepunahan Kehati
Memiliki peluang untuk punah > 50%
dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun
Tingkat Kerawanan Kriteria
Kritis
Genting
rentan
Memiliki peluang untuk punah > 20 %
dalam kurun waktu 20 tahun
Memiliki peluang untuk punah > 10 %
dalam kurun waktu 100 tahun
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KATEGORI SPECIES
DALAM RED DATA BOOKS (2007)
EXTINCT(PUNAH)
ENDANGERED (TERBAHAYAKAN)
VULNERABLE(RAWAN)
RARE(LANGKA)
INDETERMINATE
INSUFFICIENTLY KNOWN
COMMERCIAL THREATENED