2020 CEFOR HULL FLEET AND CASUALTY TRENDS
Astrid Seltmann, Analyst/Actuary @ Cefor, The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers
13 April 2021
CONTENTS
• Focus of 2020 data analysis: Covid-19 and what else?
• Warm-up: Examples of Covid-19 impact
• The Context: Global trade & shipping
NoMIS hull trends
• Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (NoMIS): Data & Team
• Fleet & Vessel value trends
• Casualty trends – partial, major and total losses
‐ Breakdown by type of casualty
‐ Claims frequency
‐ Claims cost
‐ By vessel segments
• Claims frequency versus vessel speed
• Fires – No all-clear signal
FOCUS OF 2020 ANALYSIS
• Changes in global trade & shipping
• Vessel activity (Mileage, Speed)
• Vessel segments – reacted differently
• Effects on portfolio (vessel values) & casualty trends
Covid-19: Identify impact on hull trends
And what else?
High-value risks
Navigation
Fuel quality & price, oil price
Human factor/Crew qualification
Climate change/ Increase in NatCat
Changes in regulation (liabilities)
Arctic risks
Fires (RoRo & Container vessels)
Value accumulation (in ports and on vessels)
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
New/complex technology
Cyber risk
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
«IMO 2020»: Emission reduction
INDUSTRY ISSUES
Sustainability goals
Geopolitical tensions/sanctions
WARM-UP: EXAMPLES OF COVID-19 IMPACT
JANUARY 2021, OSLO: COLOR FANTASY AT VIPPETANGEN
Should be sailing
Oslo-Kiel daily.
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
APRIL 2020: CRUISE VESSEL ACCUMULATION GULF OF MEXICO
• Gulf of Mexico was home to 5 busiest cruise ship ports in 2019
• Many cruise vessels ‘warm-stacked’ with only minimum crew -> reduced capability to react
to e.g. storm warnings;
• Insurance perspective: High value accumulation in certain geographic areas.
Source: https://www.willistowerswatson.com/-/media/WTW/Insights/2020/04/COVID-19-A-study-on-the-effect-of-COVID-19-on-port-accumulation-in-the-Gulf-of-Mexico.pdf?modified=20200423002612
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
CREW CHANGE CHALLENGE –
CLOSED BOARDERS, QUARANTINE, CANCELLED FLIGHTS
Seafarers stayed
longer on board –
psychological strain,
fatigue, ensuing
safety risks.
Secret crew change
in covid-19 times?
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
REPAIRS MAY GET DELAYED
Border closings and
disturbed global
trade may delay
delivery of spare
parts and availability
of qualified
employees at
shipyards.
COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARINE INSURANCE (CEFOR)
Astrid working from home
since March 2020.
Home Office assistant
hired from Svalbard.
He was unemployed
due to missing tourists
and looking for new
challenges.
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
THE CONTEXT: GLOBAL TRADE & SHIPPING
THE GLOBAL CONTEXT
Characteristics Relevance for Marine Insurance
Global Trade Global economy, commodity prices,
freight rates, oil price,...
Volume/Value of transported goods (cargo)
create demand for shipping.
World Fleet Shipbuilding & scrapping react to global
economy.
Size, value and composition of world fleet.
Crew International crew Qualification of crew relevant for loss prevention.
Weather/Climate Frequency & intensity of storms, ice etc.
Some areas more demanding (Wave
heights, wind speed, Arctic, challenging
shipping lanes,…)
Value accumulation in exposed areas (ports,
large vessels) + increasing frequency/intensity of
NatCat = Risk of new record losses.
Increasing traffic in challenging areas (Arctic).
Legislation International and national legislation Can be complicated across countries, may
influence claim cost.
Geopolitical risks Challenging or forbidden areas (piracy,
sanctions,…)
Risk to vessels and crew, difficult legal issues
WTO (WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION) FORECASTS
FOR GROWTH IN WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE VOLUME
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Sep 2017 Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Apr 2019 Apr 2020 - optimistic Apr 2020 - pessimistic
%
As of April 2020 – optimistic and pessimistic scenario projection: As of January 2021:
CHANGES IN CONTAINERSHIP TRADING PATTERNS IN 2020Reduced fuel prices & more time because of reduction in trade but potentially increased weather risk exposure.
Source: Concirrus
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
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Crude oil, Brent (North Sea)
Crude Oil, WTI (USA)
OIL PRICE PER MONTH ($/BBL) – AT LOW LEVEL SINCE 2015
Spring 2020
Source: World Bank - Commodity markets – ‘Pink Sheet’ data: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT 2020
What changed:
• Global trade (volume/values)
• Trading patterns / shipping routes
• Vessel activity (vessel segments reacted differently)
• Commodity prices
• Crew changes difficult / impossible
• Increased use of remote techniques (Surveys, class renewals, steering of maintenance, … )
• Potential delay of repairs / maintenance / cargo
• Increased uncertainty in future projection of global economy
Remaining issues:
• Geopolitical tensions
• Sustainability focus: reduce emissions in shipping, contribute to support UN’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals
• New technologies & fuel types, fires on board, climate/weather, seafarer qualification, …
• Fires
NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS (NOMIS)
DATA & TEAM
NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS – THE DATA
Nordic marine insurers report into the NoMIS database:
Quarterly updates
All vessels covered under Hull & Machinery (H&M) insurance
• Lead and follower business
• Underwriting years from 1995
• Portfolio and claims data (vessel values, deductibles, paid+outstanding claims development)
• For comparability, hull-related insurance types other than H&M are excluded, such as Loss of Hire, builder’s risk, freight interest, fishing (catch&gear).
Additional data:
World fleet details (subscription data), linked to insurance data via IMO number.
Exchange rates, oil price, ship operating costs, steel price etc.
Data in this presentation represents:
100% of each vessel (values, claims).
Claims trends by accident year (= calendar year in which claims occurred)
50% of world fleet > 10,000 gross tons (33% of total commercial world fleet)
Trends as of 31 December 2020.
NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS – THE TEAM
The Cefor Statistics Forum dream team 2020:
• Alandia – Jonas Svartström
• Codan – Mikkel Gardner Andersen
• Gard – Kjersti Bruborg
• Gjensidige – Tobias Abrahamsen
• If – Oskar Tufvesson
• Norwegian Hull Club – Christian Irgens
• Skuld – Otto Rendedal
• The Swedish Club – Anders Hultman
• The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) – Astrid Seltmann
Combining the intellectual power of marine insurance analysts / actuaries / mathematicians / business intelligence director / insurance risk coordinator / underwriter.
☺
NOMIS DATA REPRESENTS 34% OF THE WORLD FLEET* >1000 GT
(~50% OF THE YOUNGEST AND LARGEST VESSELS)
Gross tonnage
Year of build 1000-3999 4000-6999 7000-10000 >10000 Grand Total
Cefor share
2015-2020 22.5% 26.5% 27.0% 48.6% 40.8%
2010-2014 28.3% 36.4% 36.1% 50.6% 43.4%
2005-2009 32.6% 39.3% 48.7% 61.8% 50.3%
2000-2004 31.8% 33.1% 33.7% 53.7% 44.5%
1995-1999 22.0% 19.6% 21.0% 28.3% 24.1%
1990-1994 12.3% 12.1% 18.5% 20.3% 14.2%
<1990 or unknown 4.8% 5.2% 6.1% 10.2% 5.5%
World Fleet
2015-2020 1,756 735 512 6,440 9,443
2010-2014 3,040 1,251 710 8,316 13,317
2005-2009 3,076 1,244 1,159 6,067 11,546
2000-2004 1,551 622 344 3,317 5,834
1995-1999 1,642 805 338 1,872 4,657
1990-1994 1,811 546 233 597 3,187
<1990 or unknown 8,459 1,774 590 1,330 12,153
Total Cefor share 17.5% 23.8% 31.5% 48.9% 33.7%
Total World Fleet 21,335 6,977 3,886 27,939 60,137
* Vessels with IMO number)
FLEET & VESSEL VALUE
TRENDS
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
19
80
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100 - 5,000 gross tons
>= 5000 gross tons
WORLD FLEET – LESS & LARGER NEWBUILDSNUMBER OF NEWBUILDS PER YEAR LESS THAN AND ABOVE 5,000 GROSS TONS
Source: Data: Lloyds List Intelligence, World Fleet Update, as of January 2021 / Graph by Cefor: Cefor Annual Report 2020
After small uptick in
2019 for larger
vessels continues
reduction in 2020.
Cancellations due to
Covid-19 appear
with time lag.
NOMIS FLEET: SHARE OF NEWBUILDS AS % OF FLEET DOWN
& AVERAGE FLEET AGE INCREASES
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics 10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
19
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18
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19
20
20
New builds as % of NoMIS fleet
Average age NoMIS fleet
NOMIS FLEET: AGING IN LINE WITH THE WORLD FLEETNUMBER OF VESSELS BY AGE GROUP AS % OF TOTAL FLEET
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
40 %
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
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09
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10
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20
12
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13
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14
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17
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18
20
19
20
20
0-5 years
5-10 years
10-15 years
15-20 years
20-100 years
80 %
90 %
100 %
110 %
120 %
130 %
140 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average grosston
Average suminsured
Age
INCREASING GAP BETWEEN VESSEL SIZE & VALUEINDEX OF AV. VESSEL VALUES, GROSS TONS & AGE, 2005 = 100%
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
Average vessels size
increasing since 2007.
Average vessel value
decreasing since 2010.
Instead of correlation,
adverse development
last ten years.
6.2%
2.1%
8.8%
2.4%
-15.4%
-7.5%
-4.6%
-6.7% -6.1%-5.5%
-9.4%
-7.3%-6.3%
-3.3%-4.3%
-6.1%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20
05
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06
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20
ANNUAL CHANGE IN VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWALCOMPARING INSURED VALUE OF SAME VESSELS IN TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
2015/16 Bulk & Supply/offshore
2019: Supply/Offshore (low oil price)
From 2017 some relief in bulk market & increase in oil price
2020: Container & Supply/Offshore
(Covid-19 / low oil price)
Main drivers of annual reduction:
-14.0 %
-12.0 %
-10.0 %
-8.0 %
-6.0 %
-4.0 %
-2.0 %
0.0 %
2019 2020
Bulk
Car/RoRo
Cargo
Chemical/Product
Container
Passenger
Supply/Offshore
Tank
VALUE REDUCTION IN 2020 RENEWALS DRIVEN BY
CONTAINER AND SUPPLY/OFFSHOREANNUAL CHANGE IN VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWAL 2019, 2020 BY VESSEL TYPE
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
SUPPLY/OFFSHORE: COMPARING ANNUAL CHANGE IN
VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWAL TO AVERAGE OIL PRICE*
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
Waiting for recovery of the offshore market…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
20
05
20
06
20
07
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20
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*Oil price: World Bank - Commodity markets: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx
SUMMARY WORLD FLEET & VESSEL VALUES
• Less newbuilds
• Average age of world fleet is increasing
• Newbuilds have been increasing in size, but
• Vessel values have been decreasing since 2010
How does that impact casualty trends?
• Claims frequency and cost differ by vessel age.
• The cost of total losses is related to vessel values.
(reduced vessel values may reduce the maximum cost of a total loss,
but increase the probability of incurring a total loss under insurance).
• Larger and more complex vessels increase the probability of new record costly claims
(higher repair cost, not necessary total losses).
• Larger container vessels have a higher probability of severe damage by fires.NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF CASUALTY
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
BREAKDOWN OF NUMBER OF CLAIMS BY TYPE OF CASUALTY
42.6%
2.1%10.8%
19.0%
8.5%
1.9%
15.1%
2015-2019
Machinery
Fire/Explosion
Collision
Contact
Grounding
Heavy weather
Other / unknown
44.8%
2.6%9.9%
18.4%
9.5%
1.9%
13.0%
2020
Machinery
Fire/Explosion
Collision
Contact
Grounding
Heavy weather
Other / unknown
Total number of claims:
2015-2019: 18,016 2020: 3,191
40.0%
13.7%
13.2%
7.3%
13.4%
2.0%
10.4%
2015-2019
Machinery
Fire/Explosion
Collision
Contact
Grounding
Heavy weather
Other / unknown
46.2%
15.0%
9.5%
9.7%
11.7%
1.3%
6.6%
2020
Machinery
Fire/Explosion
Collision
Contact
Grounding
Heavy weather
Other / unknown
BREAKDOWN OF CLAIMS COST BY TYPE OF CASUALTY
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
Fires/explosions strong impact on cost.
Total cost of claims in USD million:
2015-2019: 5,015.9 2020: 782.1
CLAIMS FREQUENCY TRENDS
© Astrid Seltmann
Photo: Cefor Annual Report 2020
0.00 %
0.05 %
0.10 %
0.15 %
0.20 %
0.25 %
0.30 %
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
19
96
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partial claims (< 75%SI, left axis)
TLO claims (>75% SI, right axis)
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
Total loss frequency:down to minimum levelbetween 0.05% and 0.10%
Partial loss frequency
Pre-financial crisis peak
* = Number of claims divided by number of insured vessels
CLAIMS FREQUENCY* – LONG-TERM POSITIVE TREND
IRREGULAR DROP IN 2020
CLAIMS > USD 500,000: FURTHER REDUCTION IN
FREQUENCY OF MACHINERY & NAUTICAL-RELATED CLAIMS
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics0.00 %
0.20 %
0.40 %
0.60 %
0.80 %
1.00 %
1.20 %
1.40 %
1.60 %
1.80 %
19
96
19
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20
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19
20
20
Machinery
Collision, Contact,Grounding
Other
Fire/Explosion
Heavy weather
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
120 %
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
2018 - Bulk 2020 - Bulk
2018 - Container 2020 - Container
2018 - Cruise 2020 - Cruise
2018 - Tank (all) 2020 - Tank (all)
AVERAGE MILEAGE PER WEEK
BULK, CONTAINER, CRUISE, TANK (ALL TYPES), 2019=100%
Source: Concirrus
2020: Container and cruise vessels show activity reduction as reaction to Covid-19.
2020 DROP IN CLAIMS FREQUENCY DIFFERS BY VESSEL TYPES –
STRONGEST FOR PASSENGER – LEAST FOR CONTAINER!ALL CLAIMS, INCLUDING IBNR*
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.402
01
5
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Bulk
Cargo
Car/RoRo
Container
Passenger
Supply/Offshore
Tank (all types)
* IBNR = Incurred but not reported = reserve for claims adjustments and registration backlog
Despite activity
reduction in 2020,
container vessels
show less reduction
in claims frequency
than vessel types
with no activity
reduction.
Strongest reduction:
Car/RoRo
Passenger
Supply/offshore
CLAIMS > 500,000 USD – BULK, CONTAINER, TANK
DECREASE IN 2020 BUT EXCEPT CONTAINER!
0.0 %
0.5 %
1.0 %
1.5 %
2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 %
3.5 %
4.0 %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bulk
Container
Tank (all types)
CLAIM COST TRENDSPhoto: Astrid Seltmann
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
19
96
19
97
19
98
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02
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Claim cost per vessel
Claim cost per vesselexcluding total losses
CLAIM COST PER VESSEL SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED IN 2020
BOTH MAJOR AND PARTIAL LOSSESCLAIM COST PER VESSEL INCLUDING IBNR
Strong total loss impact
2003-08: Strong increasein repair cost per vessel.
Since 2009: repair cost stable;Volatility by major claims impact.
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
2016-18: unusual low major loss impact
2019: normalisation of major loss impact
2020: Extraordinary drop in both partial and major losses
10 %
35 % 36 %
21 %
18 %
26 %
17 %
50 %
28 %
19 %22 %
12 %
17 %16 %
26 %
7 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %2
00
5
20
06
20
07
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CLAIMS > USD 10 MILLION IN % OF TOTAL CLAIMS COST*
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
2020: record-low major loss impact
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
19
96
19
97
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98
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> 50 MUSD
30-50 MUSD
10-30 MUSD
5-10 MUSD
1-5 MUSD
IBNR
<= 1 MUSD
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
2016-18: Extraordinary absence of costly claims
2020: EXTRAORDINARY DROP IN CLAIM COST PER VESSELCLAIM COST PER VESSEL INCL. IBNR, CLAIMS IN BANDS OF CLAIM SIZE
2019: Return of major claims to expectable level
2020: Extraordinary drop in claim cost. No claim > USD 30 mill.
SUMMARY CASUALTY TRENDS – FREQUENCY
• Total loss frequency
‐ Long-term positive trend
‐ Stabilizing around the probably minimum achievable level.
‐ Hopefully positive effect of increased focus on safety measures
• Overall claims frequency
‐ Long-term positive trend, unusual drop in 2020.
• Major loss frequency (costly casualties)
‐ 2020: unusual absence of major losses
• Influencing factors
‐ Vessel utilization (type of trade, overcapacity, maintenance, lay-ups, activity in ports /congested areas
‐ Vessel age and size
‐ Changes in underlying risk
‐ Insurer deductibles (higher deductibles = less claims reported)
‐ Cost of repairs and exchange rates (repairs often paid in other currencies than USD)
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
SUMMARY CASUALTY TRENDS – COST
• Major losses (= costly casualties)
‐ Unusual low impact in 2020
‐ Increasing volatility in recent years (random occurrence in any one year),
‐ Increasing cost of single casualties (increasing vessel sizes, more complex high-value objects)
‐ In general strong influence on the cost also in years with few major losses
• Claim cost per vessel / repair cost:
‐ Stabilization at modest level in recent years.
‐ Also unusual reduction in 2020.
• Cost drivers
‐ Steel price, USD exchange rate impacts statistics (repairs often paid in other currencies than USD),
Labour cost, Maintenance routines, …
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
CLAIMS FREQUENCY
VERSUS VESSEL SPEED Photo: Cefor Annual Report 2020
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bulk - Speed
Container - Speed
Tank - Speed
Bulk - Claims frequency
Container - Claims frequency
Tank - Claims frequency
SLOW STEAMING EFFECT? (BULK, CONTAINER, TANK)
CLAIMS FREQUENCY & AVERAGE VESSEL SPEED PARALLEL REDUCTION SINCE 2008
BUT FLATTENS OUT FOR SPEED WHILE CLAIMS FREQUENCY REDUCTION ACCELERATES;
BULK, CONTAINER, TANK, INDEX 2008= 100%, CLAIMS FREQUENCY = 2 YEAR AVERAGE
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
The parallel development
is no proof of a causal
relation, but a strong
indicator of a possible
correlation between
vessel speed and claims
frequency.
Various factors influence
claims frequency, speed
cannot explain recent
decrease alone.
Data sources:Speed indices: Clarksons Research, annual time series Claims frequency: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor)
FIRES –
NO ALL-CLEAR SIGNAL Photo: Astrid Seltmann
HIGHEST FIRE FREQUENCY (CARGO VESSELS):
MEDIUM-SIZED CAR/RORO AND LARGE CONTAINER VESSELSFIRE FREQUENCY BY VESSEL TYPE AND SIZE BANDS (GROSS TONS), 2010-2019
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
<5000 5000-29999 30000-54999 55000-79999 80000-104999 >105000
Car/RoRo
Container
Bulk
Chem./Prod., LNG/LPG, Tank
Passenger
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
FIRE FREQUENCY (ALL VESSEL TYPES):
NO DOWNWARD TREND AS FOR OTHER CASUALTY TYPESCLAIMS FREQUENCY OF ALL CLAIMS VERSUS FIRES/EXPLOSIONS, CLAIMS > USD 500,000
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
120 %
140 %
160 %
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Fires/Explosions
All claims
CONTAINER VESSELS:
INCREASING NUMBER OF FIRES ON LARGE VESSELS (NB: SOME RELATION TO INCREASING NUMBER OF LARGE CONTAINER VESSELS IN WORLD FLEET)
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
> 100,000 gross tons
<= 100,000 gross tons
CONTAINER VESSELS:
STRONG INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OF FIRES > USD 500,000
0.00 %
0.05 %
0.10 %
0.15 %
0.20 %
0.25 %
0.30 %
0.35 %
0.40 %
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
CONTAINER VESSELS:
UPWARD TREND IN FIRE FREQUENCY ON LARGER VESSELS
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics0.00 %
0.20 %
0.40 %
0.60 %
0.80 %
1.00 %
1.20 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vessel > 50,000 gross tons
Vessels <= 50,000 gross tons
Linear (Vessel > 50,000 grosstons)
ALL FIRES/EXPLOSIONS – CLAIM COST PER VESSEL (USD)
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SUMMARY FIRES
• Fire frequency (all vessel types): No downward trend as for other types of casualties.
• Highest fire frequency on
‐ Passenger vessels
‐ Medium-sized Car carriers / RoRo vessels (NB: there are few large Car/RoRo vessels)
‐ Large container vessels
• Container-carrying vessels:
‐ Upward trend in fire frequency on large container vessels.
‐ In recent years strong impact on cost by fires starting in cargo area (in a container).
‐ The probability of a fire in the cargo area increases with the size of the container
vessel: The more containers on board, the higher the probability that at least one
container contains dangerous cargo that may self-ignite.
‐ In 2020 continued strong impact by fires on container vessels (although most in engine
room). This is contrary to the 2020 trend for other casualty types or vessel segments.
SUMMING UP & OUTLOOK
MAIN TAKE-AWAYS
• Vessel segments reacted differently to Covid-19.
• Substantial reduction in overall claims frequency and cost – to be seen in connection with
reduced activitiy level in some segments (Cruise, container).
• Impact of major losses at lowest level since 2005.
• Potential for
‐ increased single claim cost
(delays in spare part delivery, availability of crucial personnel, crew fatigue)
‐ unprecedented event losses (cruise vessel accumulation)
did not materialize (yet) to a larger degree.
Exceptions:
• Fires/explosion do not show a reduction as other casualty types.
• Container vessels: No reduction in large losses. Fires especially prevalent.
NB: LOH, P&I, cargo not part of NoMIS analysis. These lines were more affected by Covid-19 (delays, crew, passengers).
Photo: Astrid Seltmann
THE 2021 ORACLE
Not one unique trend.
Various influences with both
positive and negative impact.
Next Cefor hull trend update to
be issued end of August 2021.
Projects for 2021 analyses:
• Geodata
(sustainability, hot spots,
areas with changed risk)
• Fires revisited
• Monitor how market changes
may induce changes in risk
(fuel, remote techniques, new
technology,…).
OCEAN HULL TRENDS PUBLISHED BY CEFOR 7 APRIL 2021AS PRESENTED IN THIS WEBINAR
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
COASTAL HULL TRENDS PUBLISHED BY CEFOR 7 APRIL 2021NOT PRESENTED IN THIS WEBINAR
FLEET & CASUALTY TRENDS OF THE NORDIC COASTAL PORTFOLIO AND FISHING VESSELS IN PARTICULAR:
NoMISNordic Marine
Insurance Statistics
NOMIS HULL TRENDS @ STATISTICS (CEFOR.NO)
NoMIS trends per Dec. 2020: https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/
Special focus analyses:https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/
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