2020 CEFOR HULL FLEET AND CASUALTY TRENDS

2020 CEFOR HULL FLEET AND CASUALTY TRENDS

Astrid Seltmann, Analyst/Actuary @ Cefor, The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers

13 April 2021

CONTENTS

• Focus of 2020 data analysis: Covid-19 and what else?

• Warm-up: Examples of Covid-19 impact

• The Context: Global trade & shipping

NoMIS hull trends

• Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (NoMIS): Data & Team

• Fleet & Vessel value trends

• Casualty trends – partial, major and total losses

‐ Breakdown by type of casualty

‐ Claims frequency

‐ Claims cost

‐ By vessel segments

• Claims frequency versus vessel speed

• Fires – No all-clear signal

FOCUS OF 2020 ANALYSIS

• Changes in global trade & shipping

• Vessel activity (Mileage, Speed)

• Vessel segments – reacted differently

• Effects on portfolio (vessel values) & casualty trends

Covid-19: Identify impact on hull trends

And what else?

High-value risks

Navigation

Fuel quality & price, oil price

Human factor/Crew qualification

Climate change/ Increase in NatCat

Changes in regulation (liabilities)

Arctic risks

Fires (RoRo & Container vessels)

Value accumulation (in ports and on vessels)

Photo: Astrid Seltmann


New/complex technology

Cyber risk





«IMO 2020»: Emission reduction

INDUSTRY ISSUES

Sustainability goals

Geopolitical tensions/sanctions

WARM-UP: EXAMPLES OF COVID-19 IMPACT

JANUARY 2021, OSLO: COLOR FANTASY AT VIPPETANGEN

Should be sailing

Oslo-Kiel daily.


APRIL 2020: CRUISE VESSEL ACCUMULATION GULF OF MEXICO

• Gulf of Mexico was home to 5 busiest cruise ship ports in 2019

• Many cruise vessels ‘warm-stacked’ with only minimum crew -> reduced capability to react

to e.g. storm warnings;

• Insurance perspective: High value accumulation in certain geographic areas.

Source: https://www.willistowerswatson.com/-/media/WTW/Insights/2020/04/COVID-19-A-study-on-the-effect-of-COVID-19-on-port-accumulation-in-the-Gulf-of-Mexico.pdf?modified=20200423002612

https://www.willistowerswatson.com/-/media/WTW/Insights/2020/04/COVID-19-A-study-on-the-effect-of-COVID-19-on-port-accumulation-in-the-Gulf-of-Mexico.pdf?modified=20200423002612


CREW CHANGE CHALLENGE –

CLOSED BOARDERS, QUARANTINE, CANCELLED FLIGHTS

Seafarers stayed

longer on board –

psychological strain,

fatigue, ensuing

safety risks.

Secret crew change

in covid-19 times?


REPAIRS MAY GET DELAYED

Border closings and

disturbed global

trade may delay

delivery of spare

parts and availability

of qualified

employees at

shipyards.

COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARINE INSURANCE (CEFOR)

Astrid working from home

since March 2020.

Home Office assistant

hired from Svalbard.

He was unemployed

due to missing tourists

and looking for new

challenges.


THE CONTEXT: GLOBAL TRADE & SHIPPING

THE GLOBAL CONTEXT

Characteristics Relevance for Marine Insurance

Global Trade Global economy, commodity prices,

freight rates, oil price,...

Volume/Value of transported goods (cargo)

create demand for shipping.

World Fleet Shipbuilding & scrapping react to global

economy.

Size, value and composition of world fleet.

Crew International crew Qualification of crew relevant for loss prevention.

Weather/Climate Frequency & intensity of storms, ice etc.

Some areas more demanding (Wave

heights, wind speed, Arctic, challenging

shipping lanes,…)

Value accumulation in exposed areas (ports,

large vessels) + increasing frequency/intensity of

NatCat = Risk of new record losses.

Increasing traffic in challenging areas (Arctic).

Legislation International and national legislation Can be complicated across countries, may

influence claim cost.

Geopolitical risks Challenging or forbidden areas (piracy,

sanctions,…)

Risk to vessels and crew, difficult legal issues

WTO (WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION) FORECASTS

FOR GROWTH IN WORLD MERCHANDISE TRADE VOLUME

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

Sep 2017 Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Apr 2019 Apr 2020 - optimistic Apr 2020 - pessimistic

%

As of April 2020 – optimistic and pessimistic scenario projection: As of January 2021:

CHANGES IN CONTAINERSHIP TRADING PATTERNS IN 2020Reduced fuel prices & more time because of reduction in trade but potentially increased weather risk exposure.

Source: Concirrus

0.00

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Crude oil, Brent (North Sea)

Crude Oil, WTI (USA)

OIL PRICE PER MONTH ($/BBL) – AT LOW LEVEL SINCE 2015

Spring 2020

Source: World Bank - Commodity markets – ‘Pink Sheet’ data: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx

INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT 2020

What changed:

• Global trade (volume/values)

• Trading patterns / shipping routes

• Vessel activity (vessel segments reacted differently)

• Commodity prices

• Crew changes difficult / impossible

• Increased use of remote techniques (Surveys, class renewals, steering of maintenance, … )

• Potential delay of repairs / maintenance / cargo

• Increased uncertainty in future projection of global economy

Remaining issues:

• Geopolitical tensions

• Sustainability focus: reduce emissions in shipping, contribute to support UN’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals

• New technologies & fuel types, fires on board, climate/weather, seafarer qualification, …

• Fires

NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS (NOMIS)

DATA & TEAM

NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS – THE DATA

Nordic marine insurers report into the NoMIS database:

Quarterly updates

All vessels covered under Hull & Machinery (H&M) insurance

• Lead and follower business

• Underwriting years from 1995

• Portfolio and claims data (vessel values, deductibles, paid+outstanding claims development)

• For comparability, hull-related insurance types other than H&M are excluded, such as Loss of Hire, builder’s risk, freight interest, fishing (catch&gear).

Additional data:

World fleet details (subscription data), linked to insurance data via IMO number.

Exchange rates, oil price, ship operating costs, steel price etc.

Data in this presentation represents:

100% of each vessel (values, claims).

Claims trends by accident year (= calendar year in which claims occurred)

50% of world fleet > 10,000 gross tons (33% of total commercial world fleet)

Trends as of 31 December 2020.

NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS – THE TEAM

The Cefor Statistics Forum dream team 2020:

• Alandia – Jonas Svartström

• Codan – Mikkel Gardner Andersen

• Gard – Kjersti Bruborg

• Gjensidige – Tobias Abrahamsen

• If – Oskar Tufvesson

• Norwegian Hull Club – Christian Irgens

• Skuld – Otto Rendedal

• The Swedish Club – Anders Hultman

• The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) – Astrid Seltmann

Combining the intellectual power of marine insurance analysts / actuaries / mathematicians / business intelligence director / insurance risk coordinator / underwriter.

☺

NOMIS DATA REPRESENTS 34% OF THE WORLD FLEET* >1000 GT

(~50% OF THE YOUNGEST AND LARGEST VESSELS)

Gross tonnage

Year of build 1000-3999 4000-6999 7000-10000 >10000 Grand Total

Cefor share

2015-2020 22.5% 26.5% 27.0% 48.6% 40.8%

2010-2014 28.3% 36.4% 36.1% 50.6% 43.4%

2005-2009 32.6% 39.3% 48.7% 61.8% 50.3%

2000-2004 31.8% 33.1% 33.7% 53.7% 44.5%

1995-1999 22.0% 19.6% 21.0% 28.3% 24.1%

1990-1994 12.3% 12.1% 18.5% 20.3% 14.2%

<1990 or unknown 4.8% 5.2% 6.1% 10.2% 5.5%

World Fleet

2015-2020 1,756 735 512 6,440 9,443

2010-2014 3,040 1,251 710 8,316 13,317

2005-2009 3,076 1,244 1,159 6,067 11,546

2000-2004 1,551 622 344 3,317 5,834

1995-1999 1,642 805 338 1,872 4,657

1990-1994 1,811 546 233 597 3,187

<1990 or unknown 8,459 1,774 590 1,330 12,153

Total Cefor share 17.5% 23.8% 31.5% 48.9% 33.7%

Total World Fleet 21,335 6,977 3,886 27,939 60,137

* Vessels with IMO number)

FLEET & VESSEL VALUE

TRENDS


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

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100 - 5,000 gross tons

>= 5000 gross tons

WORLD FLEET – LESS & LARGER NEWBUILDSNUMBER OF NEWBUILDS PER YEAR LESS THAN AND ABOVE 5,000 GROSS TONS

Source: Data: Lloyds List Intelligence, World Fleet Update, as of January 2021 / Graph by Cefor: Cefor Annual Report 2020

After small uptick in

2019 for larger

vessels continues

reduction in 2020.

Cancellations due to

Covid-19 appear

with time lag.

NOMIS FLEET: SHARE OF NEWBUILDS AS % OF FLEET DOWN

& AVERAGE FLEET AGE INCREASES

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics 10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

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New builds as % of NoMIS fleet

Average age NoMIS fleet

NOMIS FLEET: AGING IN LINE WITH THE WORLD FLEETNUMBER OF VESSELS BY AGE GROUP AS % OF TOTAL FLEET

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

40 %

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0-5 years

5-10 years

10-15 years

15-20 years

20-100 years

80 %

90 %

100 %

110 %

120 %

130 %

140 %

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average grosston

Average suminsured

Age

INCREASING GAP BETWEEN VESSEL SIZE & VALUEINDEX OF AV. VESSEL VALUES, GROSS TONS & AGE, 2005 = 100%

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics

Average vessels size

increasing since 2007.

Average vessel value

decreasing since 2010.

Instead of correlation,

adverse development

last ten years.

6.2%

2.1%

8.8%

2.4%

-15.4%

-7.5%

-4.6%

-6.7% -6.1%-5.5%

-9.4%

-7.3%-6.3%

-3.3%-4.3%

-6.1%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20

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ANNUAL CHANGE IN VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWALCOMPARING INSURED VALUE OF SAME VESSELS IN TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS

NoMISNordic Marine


2015/16 Bulk & Supply/offshore

2019: Supply/Offshore (low oil price)

From 2017 some relief in bulk market & increase in oil price

2020: Container & Supply/Offshore

(Covid-19 / low oil price)

Main drivers of annual reduction:

-14.0 %

-12.0 %

-10.0 %

-8.0 %

-6.0 %

-4.0 %

-2.0 %

0.0 %

2019 2020

Bulk

Car/RoRo

Cargo

Chemical/Product

Container

Passenger

Supply/Offshore

Tank

VALUE REDUCTION IN 2020 RENEWALS DRIVEN BY

CONTAINER AND SUPPLY/OFFSHOREANNUAL CHANGE IN VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWAL 2019, 2020 BY VESSEL TYPE

NoMISNordic Marine


SUPPLY/OFFSHORE: COMPARING ANNUAL CHANGE IN

VESSEL VALUES ON RENEWAL TO AVERAGE OIL PRICE*

NoMISNordic Marine


Waiting for recovery of the offshore market…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

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*Oil price: World Bank - Commodity markets: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx

SUMMARY WORLD FLEET & VESSEL VALUES

• Less newbuilds

• Average age of world fleet is increasing

• Newbuilds have been increasing in size, but

• Vessel values have been decreasing since 2010

How does that impact casualty trends?

• Claims frequency and cost differ by vessel age.

• The cost of total losses is related to vessel values.

(reduced vessel values may reduce the maximum cost of a total loss,

but increase the probability of incurring a total loss under insurance).

• Larger and more complex vessels increase the probability of new record costly claims

(higher repair cost, not necessary total losses).

• Larger container vessels have a higher probability of severe damage by fires.NoMISNordic Marine


BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF CASUALTY

NoMISNordic Marine


BREAKDOWN OF NUMBER OF CLAIMS BY TYPE OF CASUALTY

42.6%

2.1%10.8%

19.0%

8.5%

1.9%

15.1%

2015-2019

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

44.8%

2.6%9.9%

18.4%

9.5%

1.9%

13.0%

2020

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

Total number of claims:

2015-2019: 18,016 2020: 3,191

40.0%

13.7%

13.2%

7.3%

13.4%

2.0%

10.4%

2015-2019

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

46.2%

15.0%

9.5%

9.7%

11.7%

1.3%

6.6%

2020

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

BREAKDOWN OF CLAIMS COST BY TYPE OF CASUALTY

NoMISNordic Marine


Fires/explosions strong impact on cost.

Total cost of claims in USD million:

2015-2019: 5,015.9 2020: 782.1

CLAIMS FREQUENCY TRENDS

© Astrid Seltmann

Photo: Cefor Annual Report 2020

0.00 %

0.05 %

0.10 %

0.15 %

0.20 %

0.25 %

0.30 %

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

19

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partial claims (< 75%SI, left axis)

TLO claims (>75% SI, right axis)

NoMISNordic Marine


Total loss frequency:down to minimum levelbetween 0.05% and 0.10%

Partial loss frequency

Pre-financial crisis peak

* = Number of claims divided by number of insured vessels

CLAIMS FREQUENCY* – LONG-TERM POSITIVE TREND

IRREGULAR DROP IN 2020

CLAIMS > USD 500,000: FURTHER REDUCTION IN

FREQUENCY OF MACHINERY & NAUTICAL-RELATED CLAIMS

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics0.00 %

0.20 %

0.40 %

0.60 %

0.80 %

1.00 %

1.20 %

1.40 %

1.60 %

1.80 %

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Machinery

Collision, Contact,Grounding

Other

Fire/Explosion

Heavy weather

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

2018 - Bulk 2020 - Bulk

2018 - Container 2020 - Container

2018 - Cruise 2020 - Cruise

2018 - Tank (all) 2020 - Tank (all)

AVERAGE MILEAGE PER WEEK

BULK, CONTAINER, CRUISE, TANK (ALL TYPES), 2019=100%

Source: Concirrus

2020: Container and cruise vessels show activity reduction as reaction to Covid-19.

2020 DROP IN CLAIMS FREQUENCY DIFFERS BY VESSEL TYPES –

STRONGEST FOR PASSENGER – LEAST FOR CONTAINER!ALL CLAIMS, INCLUDING IBNR*

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.402

01

5

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Bulk

Cargo

Car/RoRo

Container

Passenger

Supply/Offshore

Tank (all types)

* IBNR = Incurred but not reported = reserve for claims adjustments and registration backlog

Despite activity

reduction in 2020,

container vessels

show less reduction

in claims frequency

than vessel types

with no activity

reduction.

Strongest reduction:

Car/RoRo

Passenger

Supply/offshore

CLAIMS > 500,000 USD – BULK, CONTAINER, TANK

DECREASE IN 2020 BUT EXCEPT CONTAINER!

0.0 %

0.5 %

1.0 %

1.5 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

3.0 %

3.5 %

4.0 %

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bulk

Container

Tank (all types)

CLAIM COST TRENDSPhoto: Astrid Seltmann

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

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Claim cost per vessel

Claim cost per vesselexcluding total losses

CLAIM COST PER VESSEL SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED IN 2020

BOTH MAJOR AND PARTIAL LOSSESCLAIM COST PER VESSEL INCLUDING IBNR

Strong total loss impact

2003-08: Strong increasein repair cost per vessel.

Since 2009: repair cost stable;Volatility by major claims impact.

NoMISNordic Marine


2016-18: unusual low major loss impact

2019: normalisation of major loss impact

2020: Extraordinary drop in both partial and major losses

10 %

35 % 36 %

21 %

18 %

26 %

17 %

50 %

28 %

19 %22 %

12 %

17 %16 %

26 %

7 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %2

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CLAIMS > USD 10 MILLION IN % OF TOTAL CLAIMS COST*

NoMISNordic Marine


2020: record-low major loss impact

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

19

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> 50 MUSD

30-50 MUSD

10-30 MUSD

5-10 MUSD

1-5 MUSD

IBNR

<= 1 MUSD

NoMISNordic Marine


2016-18: Extraordinary absence of costly claims

2020: EXTRAORDINARY DROP IN CLAIM COST PER VESSELCLAIM COST PER VESSEL INCL. IBNR, CLAIMS IN BANDS OF CLAIM SIZE

2019: Return of major claims to expectable level

2020: Extraordinary drop in claim cost. No claim > USD 30 mill.

SUMMARY CASUALTY TRENDS – FREQUENCY

• Total loss frequency

‐ Long-term positive trend

‐ Stabilizing around the probably minimum achievable level.

‐ Hopefully positive effect of increased focus on safety measures

• Overall claims frequency

‐ Long-term positive trend, unusual drop in 2020.

• Major loss frequency (costly casualties)

‐ 2020: unusual absence of major losses

• Influencing factors

‐ Vessel utilization (type of trade, overcapacity, maintenance, lay-ups, activity in ports /congested areas

‐ Vessel age and size

‐ Changes in underlying risk

‐ Insurer deductibles (higher deductibles = less claims reported)

‐ Cost of repairs and exchange rates (repairs often paid in other currencies than USD)

NoMISNordic Marine


SUMMARY CASUALTY TRENDS – COST

• Major losses (= costly casualties)

‐ Unusual low impact in 2020

‐ Increasing volatility in recent years (random occurrence in any one year),

‐ Increasing cost of single casualties (increasing vessel sizes, more complex high-value objects)

‐ In general strong influence on the cost also in years with few major losses

• Claim cost per vessel / repair cost:

‐ Stabilization at modest level in recent years.

‐ Also unusual reduction in 2020.

• Cost drivers

‐ Steel price, USD exchange rate impacts statistics (repairs often paid in other currencies than USD),

Labour cost, Maintenance routines, …

NoMISNordic Marine


CLAIMS FREQUENCY

VERSUS VESSEL SPEED Photo: Cefor Annual Report 2020

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bulk - Speed

Container - Speed

Tank - Speed

Bulk - Claims frequency

Container - Claims frequency

Tank - Claims frequency

SLOW STEAMING EFFECT? (BULK, CONTAINER, TANK)

CLAIMS FREQUENCY & AVERAGE VESSEL SPEED PARALLEL REDUCTION SINCE 2008

BUT FLATTENS OUT FOR SPEED WHILE CLAIMS FREQUENCY REDUCTION ACCELERATES;

BULK, CONTAINER, TANK, INDEX 2008= 100%, CLAIMS FREQUENCY = 2 YEAR AVERAGE

NoMISNordic Marine


The parallel development

is no proof of a causal

relation, but a strong

indicator of a possible

correlation between

vessel speed and claims

frequency.

Various factors influence

claims frequency, speed

cannot explain recent

decrease alone.

Data sources:Speed indices: Clarksons Research, annual time series Claims frequency: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor)

FIRES –

NO ALL-CLEAR SIGNAL Photo: Astrid Seltmann

HIGHEST FIRE FREQUENCY (CARGO VESSELS):

MEDIUM-SIZED CAR/RORO AND LARGE CONTAINER VESSELSFIRE FREQUENCY BY VESSEL TYPE AND SIZE BANDS (GROSS TONS), 2010-2019

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

<5000 5000-29999 30000-54999 55000-79999 80000-104999 >105000

Car/RoRo

Container

Bulk

Chem./Prod., LNG/LPG, Tank

Passenger

NoMISNordic Marine


FIRE FREQUENCY (ALL VESSEL TYPES):

NO DOWNWARD TREND AS FOR OTHER CASUALTY TYPESCLAIMS FREQUENCY OF ALL CLAIMS VERSUS FIRES/EXPLOSIONS, CLAIMS > USD 500,000

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

140 %

160 %

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Fires/Explosions

All claims

CONTAINER VESSELS:

INCREASING NUMBER OF FIRES ON LARGE VESSELS (NB: SOME RELATION TO INCREASING NUMBER OF LARGE CONTAINER VESSELS IN WORLD FLEET)

NoMISNordic Marine


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

> 100,000 gross tons

<= 100,000 gross tons

CONTAINER VESSELS:

STRONG INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OF FIRES > USD 500,000

0.00 %

0.05 %

0.10 %

0.15 %

0.20 %

0.25 %

0.30 %

0.35 %

0.40 %

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

CONTAINER VESSELS:

UPWARD TREND IN FIRE FREQUENCY ON LARGER VESSELS

NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics0.00 %

0.20 %

0.40 %

0.60 %

0.80 %

1.00 %

1.20 %

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Vessel > 50,000 gross tons

Vessels <= 50,000 gross tons

Linear (Vessel > 50,000 grosstons)

ALL FIRES/EXPLOSIONS – CLAIM COST PER VESSEL (USD)

NoMISNordic Marine


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SUMMARY FIRES

• Fire frequency (all vessel types): No downward trend as for other types of casualties.

• Highest fire frequency on

‐ Passenger vessels

‐ Medium-sized Car carriers / RoRo vessels (NB: there are few large Car/RoRo vessels)

‐ Large container vessels

• Container-carrying vessels:

‐ Upward trend in fire frequency on large container vessels.

‐ In recent years strong impact on cost by fires starting in cargo area (in a container).

‐ The probability of a fire in the cargo area increases with the size of the container

vessel: The more containers on board, the higher the probability that at least one

container contains dangerous cargo that may self-ignite.

‐ In 2020 continued strong impact by fires on container vessels (although most in engine

room). This is contrary to the 2020 trend for other casualty types or vessel segments.

SUMMING UP & OUTLOOK

MAIN TAKE-AWAYS

• Vessel segments reacted differently to Covid-19.

• Substantial reduction in overall claims frequency and cost – to be seen in connection with

reduced activitiy level in some segments (Cruise, container).

• Impact of major losses at lowest level since 2005.

• Potential for

‐ increased single claim cost

(delays in spare part delivery, availability of crucial personnel, crew fatigue)

‐ unprecedented event losses (cruise vessel accumulation)

did not materialize (yet) to a larger degree.

Exceptions:

• Fires/explosion do not show a reduction as other casualty types.

• Container vessels: No reduction in large losses. Fires especially prevalent.

NB: LOH, P&I, cargo not part of NoMIS analysis. These lines were more affected by Covid-19 (delays, crew, passengers).


THE 2021 ORACLE

Not one unique trend.

Various influences with both

positive and negative impact.

Next Cefor hull trend update to

be issued end of August 2021.

Projects for 2021 analyses:

• Geodata

(sustainability, hot spots,

areas with changed risk)

• Fires revisited

• Monitor how market changes

may induce changes in risk

(fuel, remote techniques, new

technology,…).

OCEAN HULL TRENDS PUBLISHED BY CEFOR 7 APRIL 2021AS PRESENTED IN THIS WEBINAR

NoMISNordic Marine


COASTAL HULL TRENDS PUBLISHED BY CEFOR 7 APRIL 2021NOT PRESENTED IN THIS WEBINAR

FLEET & CASUALTY TRENDS OF THE NORDIC COASTAL PORTFOLIO AND FISHING VESSELS IN PARTICULAR:

NoMISNordic Marine


NOMIS HULL TRENDS @ STATISTICS (CEFOR.NO)

NoMIS trends per Dec. 2020: https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/

Special focus analyses:https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/

https://www.cefor.no/statistics/

https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/

https://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2020/nomis---as-of-december-2020/

2020 CEFOR HULL FLEET AND CASUALTY TRENDS

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