WHERE TO FLEX AND HOW? - Colliers International...productivity perspective. Summary &...

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WHERE TO FLEX AND HOW? Long-term views on emerging industry focus among popular submarkets in Tokyo Mari Kumagai Senior Director | Research| Japan +81 3 4572 1009 [email protected] COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | OCCUPIER SERVICES & INVESTMENT | TOKYO | 28 JANUARY 2020

Transcript of WHERE TO FLEX AND HOW? - Colliers International...productivity perspective. Summary &...

Page 1: WHERE TO FLEX AND HOW? - Colliers International...productivity perspective. Summary & Recommendations This report is designed for institutional investors, landlords, and occupiers.

WHERE TO FLEX AND HOW? Long-term views on emerging industry focus among popular submarkets in Tokyo

Mari KumagaiSenior Director | Research| Japan

+81 3 4572 [email protected]

COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | OCCUPIER SERVICES & INVESTMENT | TOKYO | 28 JANUARY 2020

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Mari KumagaiSenior DirectorResearch | Tokyo

1See the Colliers Global Research estimate U.S. Flexible Workspace Outlook 2019 (https://www2.colliers.com/en/Research/2019-US-Flexible-Workspace-Outlook-Report)

Flexible workspace is here to stay as demand for flexible workspace remains intact. However, it is most likely to transform into a more localized format appropriate for Tokyo.

In a market where major developers are also dominant landlords, we expect a combined flex and core1 strategy to prevail as the winning business model. This hybrid model offers the most attractive mix of maintaining quality tenants and scalability together with an ability to accommodate fluctuating headcount for additional rental income.

We recommend landlords to :

> Make office buildings more competitive by introducing more flexible work elements to workspaces.

> Outsource unfamiliar space requirements to more experienced flexible workspace operators.

We recommend investors to:

> Focus on increasing rental income by upgrading services and amenities in existing buildings.

> Introduce third-party workspace operators to enhance the capital value of underutilized buildings.

We recommend occupiers to:

> Accommodate service elements in their accounting if not already doing so. Re-evaluate occupancy costs from a total productivity perspective.

Summary & Recommendations

This report is designed for institutional investors, landlords, and occupiers. It provides:

> An overview of Tokyo’s popular submarkets

> A synopsis of additional revenue classification as well as corresponding risks

> A relative assessment of changing tenant profiles with our forecast until 2030

> Key recommendations on Flex & Core leasing strategies for the next five years

Tokyo C5W: Mapping office building by grade

Source: Colliers International, Ministry of Land Infrastructure & Transportation (MILT)

Grade A / A minus

Grade B

> Grade A refers to buildings with NFA in excess of 6,000 tsubo / 19,835 sq m

> Grade A minus refers to the building with NFA in excess of 2,500 tsubo / 8,264 sqm

> Grade B refers to the building with NFA in excess of 1,000 tsubo / 3,306 sqm

> Grade A / A minus buildings are considered to satisfy the revised anti-seismic regulations.

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Property is the second-highest category of expenditure for services companies. More importantly, the choice of property affects productivity through (1) travel times, which impact time worked (2) location, which affects staff loyalty, and (3) urban environment, which affects motivation. Occupiers now take into account all of these ‘hidden’ occupancy costs, which vary according to the how central the location is, and how modern or unique it is, especially when bringing together all of their activities to a single site. Reflecting these trends, the choice of offices now involves more stakeholders -- often heavily influenced by human resources, innovation, and IT departments.

Japan’s labor productivity remains substantially below its peers, tracking significantly below the OECD average. The latest Tokyo office demand survey1 also underscores that improving labor productivity has become the highest priority item while cost considerations rank near the bottom.

A business district must not merely rely upon its location and ease of access to corporate clusters. It must also offer a network of more flexible and productive properties to justify high rental rates (e.g., Marunouchi).

FLEXIBILITY AS A TOOL TO INCREASE RENTAL INCOME

Ranking labor productivity1 among OECD countries (U.S. =100)

Source: Colliers International, OECD stats, MILT. 1Defined as GDP / (total number of employee X their total hours worked) , All GDP is Purchasing Power Parity based figures, using the latest annual figures for 20181 As per the latest office demand survey by Xymax Institute dated December 2019

Ranking rent gap multiple by submarkets across major cities

Source: Colliers International. Note: All data as of 3Q 2019, except Tokyo data as of the end 2019. Currency conversion rate: USD1= JPY108, EUR1 = JPY122.5.

10092.8 90.9

75.7 72.962.5

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

U.S. France Germany U.K. OECDaverage

Japan Korea

3.6

2.6 2.4 2.3

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

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HOW TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY THROUGH REAL ESTATE ?

Landlords should accommodate more flexible space usage terms in exchange for higher rental rates. Flexible options have helped tenants significantly reduce the cost of unused office space and also save time through reduced administrative burden.

According to the RICS, flexible workspace is defined as space in property provided for business or institutional purposes , often with “flexibility” around the duration, extent and type of occupation. Three major modes of flexible workspace have emerged since the original “business suite” model in Unites States developed in the 1960s.

> Traditional short letting of a small, yet defined private space

> Co-working in which the workspace is shared with other members

> Corporate space, where additional space that supplements an existing office is leased, typically referred as Workspace as a Service (WaaS)

Tokyo has a wide variety of rent pricing: the most expensive submarket costs as much as 2.6 times of that in the cheapest district. Higher price elasticity also indicates more tenants are willing to pay more for popular locations.

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HOW TO ADOPT FLEXIBILITY? Most landlords are yet to gain the required skill set to manage flexible work space amid still-shifting market dynamics. In our view, introducing flexible elements into office buildings should see a variety of outcomes based on the mode of ownership, as classified below:

> Freehold ownership: the flexible workspace is managed directly

> Leasehold ownership: the flexible workspace operator takes on a conventional lease contract. The contract may include a provision to share some financial incentives to the landlord (e.g., income targets).

> Property company / operating company split: this is similar to a REIT. In this approach, the flexible workspace operator is majority-controlled by a property company that has been established as separate entity for financial and administrative reasons

> Management agreement: a landlord or a leaseholder decides to outsource the management of a flexible workspace to an unrelated third-party company. Landlords then earn an income, less a given management fee typically scaled to the performance of the workspace.

Source: Colliers International, Note : In this chart, Grade is mostly based on the scale of floor space with Grade A over 200 tsubo or 661 sq metres, Grade A- over 100 tsubo or 331 sq metres , Grade B over 50 tsubo or 165 sq metres and Grade C over 66 sq metres.

HOW TO SHARE PROFITS? More competitive flexible space operators may use their strong brand identity and business prospects to negotiate cost-sharing through rent-free periods or subsidized funding. However, rising risk associated with large upfront capital commitments and securing credible tenants at different points in the market cycle may no longer justify the decision to lease a dedicated workspace to less-competitive operators.

That said, flexible workspace requirements are here to stay. Using a management contract similar to that of hotel operators, landlords can share their rental revenue using the following methods:

> On-demand pricing: identify hidden demand with higher price elasticity in popular locations (e.g., Shibuya). Using a management contract, landlords can outsource the operations to experienced flexible workspace providers at a fee.

Larger buildings with floorplates larger than 200 tsubo (661 sq metres) and more amenities have the highest rental growth at a CAGR of 1.6% since 2000. That said, most strata-title owners could still benefit from creating a community-focused, creative environment (see also: Colliers International’s 2018 Who? What? Well? Wellness Report).

> Additional services: to earn additional income on existing tenants typically after outsourcing daily operations through management agreements with third-party operators

> Tired membership benefits: to earn additional income on existing tenants by sharing the communal facilities available through the network of multiple building owners. Depending on the level of demand, existing tenants can earn greater membership benefits at an additional fee.

Looking at building performance, we analyze the average expense profile in proportion to total revenues in the next page. In particular, we look at:

> Management fees: these may increase through royalty payments or membership payments if outsourcing daily leasing activities to flexible workspace providers. In our view, the total benefits that can accrue from upgrading facilities through outsourcing to globally-experienced operators far outweigh the cost required build a standalone operating platform.

Tokyo C5W: Historical rental performance by GFA ( 2000- 2019)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Grade A Grade A- Grade B Grade C

CA

GR

Classified by floor space

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1.1%

5.4%6.1%

7.6%

11.1%

12.3%

56.5%

Maintainance Fee

Utilities

Management Fee

Taxes

Depreciation

Other

Net Operating Income

Comparing tenant profile in Asia’s major cities ( 2018)

Source: Colliers International. Note: European data as of May 2019, Tokyo data as of the end 2018. Currency conversion rate: USD1= JPY110, EUR1 = JPY122.5. 1Oxford Economics (2019)

TOKYO LACKS INDUSTY FOCUS RELATIVE TO OTHER GLOBAL CITIES A targeted industry focus can justify higher rental rates due to convenience and tailored service offerings. Growing industries adapt the most to flexible workspace environment due to their higher willingness to pay more to retain a talented workforce. Until 2025, ranking by Gross Value Added or GVA 1, the technology and financial services sectors are likely to maintain higher productivity, growing at a CAGR of 1.5% on average, relative to the market average growth at a CAGR of 0.6%.

Looking at tenant profiles, Tokyo does not have a clear industry concentration to match other global cities; each industry only shows a “loose” geographic concentration, indicating high diversification. Higher industry concentration helps prop up productivity and justify higher rent in a given district. Hong Kong and Singapore support the regional finance function through their explicit industry focus on finance along with accompanying business support or professional services, as shown below. To become internationally competitive, emerging cities such as Bangalore have attracted more tenants from the technology sector, reaching nearly half of occupied space.

HOW TO SHARE RISK FACTORS? Operating flexible workspace can provide additional revenues as well as risks, especially when it involves third-party operators.

First, the market downcycle should see a point in which traditional office leasing should offer a more economical option. Negative carry resulting from flat cost against declining rental income does not offer enough cushion to justify the large upfront capital requirements. Second, most flexible workspace operators require around 24 months to reach a steady level of occupancy and income from additional services, leaving them financially vulnerable relative to landlords/ investors. Third, mismatched duration between short-term rental income and longer-term lease obligations could result in loss-making operations for high-cost operators.

In our view, most flexible workspace operators lack the sustainable credit worthiness to expand their own network using their own balance sheet. We would recommend outsourcing daily operation through a management contract without involving lease obligation, to mitigate the financial risks.

0%

10%

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100%

Tokyo Hong Kong Shanghai Singapore Bangalore

TMT Professional services Finance Flexible workspace Others

Source: Colliers International., J-REIT disclosures. Note: the scope of this performance survey covers 498 office buildings for the twelve month period ended September 2019

Tokyo C5W: Average Office Building Expense Profile

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0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Minato

Shinjuku

Chiyoda

Chuo

Shibuya

Office

Residential

Retail

Industrial

Other

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Shibuya

Shinjuku

Minato

Chiyoda

Chuo

100% ownership Strata title

Jointly owned Master lease

Trust beneficiary certificate

WHO TO FLEX WITH? Adapting to flexibility requires understanding

Under different ownership structures, the boundaries of the leasing business have become less clear compared to that of real estate investments to a different degree. However, a group of owners still needs to reach an agreement before introducing flexible elements into their building portfolio.

Tokyo C5W: Office Building Ownership Profile %

Source: Colliers International, Japan Building Management Association (JBMA)

Source: Colliers International, Metropolitan Government of Tokyo – Urban Planning Bureau

Tokyo C5W: Ranking the building stock by use ( ,000 sqm) Mixed-use property should reflect emerging demographic trends

Increasing demand to work, play and live all in close proximity presents more immediate needs to offer more flexible work environments in popular locations. Looking at building stock by use, the availability of quality residential and high street retail facilities in Minato to attract top talents presents the most promising opportunity for building owners to introduce flexible space. A less-prestigious but larger residential stock in Shinjuku (14.3 million square metres, or or 56% of stock) may provide an opportunity to offer more satellite work locations in the coming years. Along this trend, major railway and real estate developers, such as JR East, have already started to add more flexible workspaces within major railway facilities to offer convenience to busy office workers. With a small capital expenditure, the introduction of a modular office space solution could accommodate unaddressed demand for more flexible workspace arrangements as they are quite easy to install in any unused space at convenient locations (e.g. event spaces).

Fragmented ownership remains a long-term challenge in Shibuya

According to the Building Management Association, the proportion of owner-occupied buildings still remains high in Chuo (32%) and Chiyoda (32%). The average size of buildings in Chiyoda is large, with one-third of buildings having GFAs of 50,000 square metres or more. Reflecting its roots as young cultural hub, ownership structure in Shibuya tends to be complicated, involving more stakeholders. Also, buildings are smaller on average, with 41% of buildings having GFAs of 5,000 square metres or less.

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80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

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100.0%

105.0%

NLA Tokyo NLA National GFA Tokyo GFA National

(1) Invest in shared facilities

Office space usage has been changing in favour of more common facilities. In Tokyo CBDs, with nearly zero rent growth, Net Lettable Area or NLA per head has been on a long-term decline, reaching around 85% of the space used two decades ago. However, similar decline in the Gross Floor Area or GFA is less sanguine with the same ratio tracking as much as 93%, suggesting a larger proportion of common facilities are being provided at higher rent in more modern buildings.

Tokyo C5W: Gross Building Supply (2015-2025F)

Source: Colliers International

Tokyo C5W : Changing Tenant Profile (2015-2025 F)

Source: Colliers International, Metropolitan Government of Tokyo, Ministry of General Affairs, MILT Source: Colliers International, JBMA

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Shinjuku-ku Shibuya-ku Chuo-ku Chiyoda-ku Minato-ku

2015-2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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Finance Professional services TMT Manufacturing Trading Others

Office Space occupied per headcount : NFA & GFA ( 2000=100)

Finding technology talent at all levels is difficult in tight labor markets. In this regard, Shibuya has been facing tenant demand far exceeding the limited available supply. We expect technology tenants to move elsewhere, seeking space in areas such Minato and Chiyoda where options are more plentiful, and in the process, steadily replacing finance and traditional tenants as shown in the bottom right chart.

(2) Prioritize the areas with enough supply to flex

WHERE TO FLEX ?

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Tokyo C5W: Occupier profile by key sector- Forecast 2025

Source: Colliers International, METI., Metropolitan Government of Tokyo, Note : Above charts are color coded according to the level of changes expected until 2025, Blue indicates large tenant increases while RED indicates the tenant decreases

2025F FinanceProfessional services

TMTManufact

uringTrading Others Total

Chiyoda / % 24% 24% 22% 10% 11% 9% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 4,171 4,107 3,819 1,668 1,845 1,541 17,125

Chuo / % 21% 20% 20% 12% 18% 9% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 2,527 2,481 2,399 1,463 2,253 1,155 12,278

Minato / % 13% 22% 33% 11% 11% 11% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 2,286 4,093 5,961 1,978 1,914 2,005 18,231

Shinjuku / % 17% 25% 21% 9% 13% 15% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 1,236 1,846 1,571 650 976 1,114 7,430

Shibuya / % 14% 25% 26% 7% 16% 12% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 822 1,474 1,588 420 934 722 6,014

Tokyo C5W: Occupier profile by key sector – Actual 2015

CHANGING OCCUPIER PROFILE IN TOKYO C5W

Forecasting method

Adjusting employment to office workers

> The long-term employment trends by industry are based on official estimates by the Metropolitan Government of Tokyo Statistics Bureau.

> These figures are then adjusted to the number of office workers by industry using the occupation categories defined by the Ministry of General Affairs.

> The following categories are assumed to be “office workers”, including corporate management, clerks and administration, specialists in the fields of R&D, legal, financial services, sales & marketing, except those on retail floors

> Excludes the following industry classifications: government, hospital, and non-profit school facilities.

> The 2025 forecast assumes that a reduction in workspace per headcount during our forecast horizon is largely offset by ongoing population inflows into central Tokyo. All 2015 figures are actual figures.

Source: Colliers International, METI., Metropolitan Government of Tokyo

2015 FinanceProfessional

servicesTMT

Manufacturing

Trading Others Total

Chiyoda / % 23% 24% 16% 8% 16% 14% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 3,750 3,950 2,681 1,268 2,591 1,033 16,541

Chuo / % 19% 23% 18% 8% 16% 15% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 2,348 2,814 2,284 1,051 1,974 868 12,391

Minato / % 20% 25% 16% 9% 15% 14% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 3,622 4,438 2,796 1,606 2,673 959 17,700

Shinjuku / % 14% 25% 19% 9% 11% 21% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 1,073 1,881 1,410 677 850 907 7,476

Shibuya / % 22% 23% 17% 7% 16% 15% 100%

/ ,000 sq m 1,274 1,385 1,002 425 923 487 5,922

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Minato-ku has the best mix of quality residential, office, and retail spaces, respectively comprising of 41%, 49%, and 4% of total space. The area features internationally popular destinations, including Roppongi and Akasaka. By 2025, together with new supply totaling 1.6 million square metres, we expect Minato-ku to see the largest shift in tenant profile by doubling the technology share to 33%, and a 7 percentage point decrease in financial services to 13%.

Minato-ku also has a large stock of Grade A office buildings to match that of Chiyoda-ku. However, with its high-quality living environment, Minato-ku remains the top choice for foreign companies, and the media and design industries. Within its land area of 20 square kilometres, Minato-ku has 37,116 registered offices. It supports about 741,000 daytime commercial workers that have increased at a CAGR 3.0% over the past five years. Chuo-ku is the oldest business district and

features Nihonbashi, historically the largest national mercantile centre in the 17th century. By 2030, we expect Chuo-ku to maintain its relatively balanced tenant profile with a minor increase in the trading sector to 18% of occupied space, offsetting a decrease in professional services to 20%. As old industries are in decline through automation, some smaller office buildings, which account for 56% of the market, have been converted to modern residential use.

Chuo-ku can often offer a cheaper alternative to Marunouchi, with similarly good access to public transportation. Within its land area of 10 square kilometres, Chuo-ku has 35,745 registered offices. It supports about 537,000 daytime commercial workers that have increased at a CAGR of 4.5% over the past years.

Minato-ku Chiyoda-ku

Chuo-ku

Chiyoda-ku is the most prestigious business district, featuring the Marunouchi area. By 2030, we expect a change in industry focus, with a 6% increase in technology to 22% and a 12 percentage point increase in finance to 24%, offsetting the decrease in traditional industries such as general trading. Chiyoda-ku offers a global showcase of Grade A office buildings, representing as much as 81 % of total stock. Over the past five years, Chiyoda-ku has added 860,000 sq meters of additional Grade A office space, representing 12% of existing stock, while keeping its vacancy near 1.0%. Within the land area of 12 square kilometers, Chiyoda-ku has 31,065 registered offices. It supports 721,000 daytime commercial workers that have increased at a CAGR of 2.6% over the past five years.

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Shibuya-ku is a young cultural hub featuring Shibuya & Ebisu. With the highest concentration of internet industries (28%), we expect technology tenants to account for 26% of tenanted space by 2030. Rent has increased at a CAGR of 8.7% since 2013.

Shibuya-ku’s building stock is predominantly residential, comprising 59% of built space. Much of the retail space was developed by railway companies. Office only consists of 29% of built stock, despite its popularity. High traffic in the retail shopping districts, which feature many popup stores, makes the district ideal for on-demand pricing and flexible space arrangements.

Within a land area of 15 square kilometres, Shibuya-ku has 29,800 registered offices. It supports about 372,000 daytime commercial workers, that have increased at a CAGR of 6.4 % over the past five years.

Tenants seeking large floor plates should consider Toranomon or Hamamatsucho, which have many policy incentives supporting a large future supply pipeline until 2023. Existing buildings in Akasaka and Roppongi have started to report larger vacancies in upgraded facilities, albeit at minimal discount

Alternatives to Marunouchi include the neighboring Kanda with more revitalized buildings still offering a 25% discount, on average. Unlike Marunouchi, rent in Kanda has more than doubled after hitting the bottom in mid-2012.

Alternatives to Shibuya include Gotanda or Kayabacho, where more tech tenants chose to relocate to achieve up to a 30% discount. Unlike Shibuya, they offer an interesting opportunity for core-plus investors seeking Grade B buildings, with rent growth still tracking below the market average.

Shibuya-ku Emerging locations

Shinjuku-kuShinjuku-ku is an old cultural hub featuring Nishishinjuku on the west side of Shinjuku station. We expect Shinjuku-ku to see a small contraction of total office space as the majority of office districts, except Yotsuya, have failed to attract major tenants in recent years. Its balanced tenant mix tends to be in less-profitable industries, with a greater share of workers (13%) in trading and professional services (25%), who are at risk of replacement from automation and crowdsourcing.

Shinjuku-ku maintains the largest stock of residential and retail space, offering many cheaper options compared to neighbouring districts. This has attracted immigration mostly from emerging countries, which represented about 10% of the population in 2019. Within the land area of 15 square kilometres, Shinjuku-ku supports about 372,000 daytime workers through 29,816 registered offices.

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For Landlords

Landlords & Investors : Annual contracts for fixed space no longer fit the office space requirements of today’s tenants. Also, flexible workspaces have already become essential elements to secure the talented workforce that companies require to reach their strategic goals.

We recommend landlords and investors to:

> Understand the advantages that adding flexible elements can bring to your portfolio. Flexible workspaces may act as auxiliary amenities within the building, enhancing the usable space and helping justify progressive rental growth without altering the preferred tenant profile.

> Incorporate flexible elements into the office leasing program as soon as possible.

> Focus on demand-based pricing to enhance the building value. Larger gaps are set to emerge as more flexible space arrangements in underutilized buildings can unleash hidden demand in popular locations.

> Consider re-purposing Grade B buildings in popular locations. With a very wide price gap by submarket, Tokyo offers a large supply of Grade B buildings with many opportunities for rental income enhancement.

> Focus on emerging submarkets with known policy incentives. Notable areas that have benefitted from rising community development incentives include Toranomon and Shinagawa for example

> For landlords uninterested in setting up their own flexible workspace solutions, consider partnering with an existing operator. This can also reduce the time pressure to introduce flexible workspace elements within the building.

For Occupiers

Occupiers : Emergence of both “flexible” and “core” products in Tokyo present a major turning point for most traditional office users.

We recommend occupiers to:iStrategy:

> Keep an option available to accommodate fluctuating headcounts and/or industry-specific demand. The new flex and core workspace strategy allows occupiers to accommodate fluctuating headcounts quickly and directly to real estate costs, with a typical rental mark-up of around 10%.

> Re-evaluate the total occupancy cost per headcount. Future property costs should not be evaluated solely in terms of price paid per square meter. Instead, it should be calculated based on the total benefits from employee performance improvements. With greater availability of collaborative spaces, the work environment should accommodate a wider variety of working styles.

> Identify major landlords and developers that have already incorporated flexible workspace elements at an additional mark-up to existing rent.

> Avoid areas with low price elasticity, such as that of Shibuya as a result of a very high concentration of Internet companies. Emerging technology hubs in Minato-ku and Chiyoda-ku can offer better corporate facilities and more mixed-use opportunities as their supply comes online over the next five years, at potentially better pricing.

> Avoid areas with high seismic risk exposure. According to the latest earthquake vulnerability index released by the Tokyo government, the potential severity of a disaster in Shinjuku, and, to a lesser extent, Shibuya, are likely to be double that of C3W.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

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About Colliers International Group Inc.

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Copyright © 2020 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for anyinaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Primary Author:

Mari KumagaiHead of Research | Tokyo+81 3 4572 [email protected]

For further information, please contact:

Katsuji TokitaManagement Director | Country Head | Japan+81 3 [email protected]

Hideki OtaExecutive Director | Capital Markets | Japan+81 3 [email protected]

Hazumu IwaseExecutive Director | Capital Markets | Japan+81 3 [email protected]

Dick Olango Senior Director | Occupier Services / Project Management | Japan+81 3 [email protected]

Jonathan Wright Head of Flexible Workspace Solution | Asia+852 9020 [email protected]