Webinar on 4Q2015 GDP Estimates
11
Highlights from the Q4 GDP Report Wayne Best Chief Economist Visa Inc. January 29, 2016 Ellen Hughes-Cromwick Chief Economist U.S. Department of Commerce 1
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Transcript of Webinar on 4Q2015 GDP Estimates
1
Highlights from the Q4 GDP Report
Wayne BestChief Economist
Visa Inc.
January 29, 2016Ellen Hughes-
CromwickChief Economist
U.S. Department of Commerce
2
The U.S. Economy Grew 0.7 Percent in 2015Q4
3.32.7
1.8
-0.3
-2.8
2.5
1.62.2
1.5
2.4 2.4
0.6
3.9
2.0
0.7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Percent Change
Source: BEA. Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterly percent change from prior quarter at annual rate.
3
Q4 GDP In Detail
• Real GDP grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year• This compares with a 2.0% growth rate in the prior quarter
• For all of 2015, real GDP advanced 2.4%, matching the 2014 pace of growth• Looking across the economy, consumer spending growth of 2.2% was a
bright spot• Housing construction grew by over 8% in the fourth quarter, another strong
gain
• In contrast, declines in business investment and exports served as drags on economic performance late last year
• The economic expansion has lasted 7 ½ years and average annual growth since it began in mid-2009 has been 2.1%
4
Contributions to GDP Growth
5
Fundamentals are Supporting Consumer Spending
3.53.0
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.92.3
1.5 1.7
2.73.1
1.8
3.6
3.0
2.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change
Source: BEA. Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterly percent change from prior quarter at annual rate.
6
Business Investment Fell by 1.8% in Q4
7.0 7.1 5.9
-0.7
-15.6
2.5
7.79.0
3.0
6.2
2.91.6
4.12.6
-1.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Business Fixed InvestmentPercent Change
Source: BEA. Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterly percent change from prior quarter at annual rate.
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Non-residential Investment Trends are Mixed
1.6
8.1
-1.52013 2014 2015
ConstructionPercent Change
3.2
5.8
3.1
2013 2014 2015
EquipmentPercent Change
3.8
5.25.8
2013 2014 2015
IP ProductsPercent Change
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Housing Activity has Stepped Up this Year
6.6
-7.6
-18.8
-24.0-21.2
-2.5
0.5
13.59.5
1.8
8.7 10.1 9.3 8.2 8.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Real Residential InvestmentPercent Change
Source: BEA. Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterly percent change from prior quarter at annual rate.
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Weak Export Demand is Weighing on Growth
6.3
9.0 9.3
5.7
-8.8
11.9
6.9
3.4 2.8 3.4
1.1
-6.0
5.1
0.7
-2.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
ExportsPercent Change
Source: BEA. Annual percent change from prior year. Quarterly percent change from prior quarter at annual rate .
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