Water Supply Engineering Design (II) Shu-Chi Chang, Ph.D., P.E., P.A. Assistant Professor 1 and...
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Water Supply Engineering Design (II)
Shu-Chi Chang, Ph.D., P.E., P.A.Assistant Professor1 and Division Chief2
1Department of Environmental Engineering2Division of Safety and Health, Center for Environmental Protection and Occupational Safety and HealthNational Chung Hsing University
9/18/2006
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Outline
• 主計畫與工程實施計畫• 供水區域及供水人口• 供水普及率• 用水量與供水量• 用水量之時變遷• 水源問題• 設計年限• 設計容量
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2-1 Master Plan
• 自來水系統• 主計畫
• 不同計畫目標年之計畫• 供水區域• 供水人口• 供水量• 水源分析• 分期計畫
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2-1 Master Plan (續 )• 工程實施計畫
依主要計畫訂定,應考量• 利用地形• 符合當地發展• 設備操作維護• 設備採用前測試及了解• 土木、機械與電氣之配合• 綜合成本• 環境影響評估
• 格式應包含• 計畫報告• 設計圖說• 施工說明書• 器材規格• 施工預算書
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2-1 Master Plan (續 )• 工程實施計畫之計畫要項
• 概說• 水廠現況• 供水區域• 供水量• 水源選擇• 系統規劃• 工程內容• 工程經費• 用地• 執行計畫• 功能圖說
• 工程施行之階段• 資格訂定• 發包
• 工程設計• 工程監造• 工程施工
• 工程試運轉及驗收• 加入營運
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2-2 供水區域• 供水區域
• 劃定供水區域 -> 供水人口及供水量
• 計畫目標年• 供水對象
• 劃分方式• 行政區供水• 區域供水
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2-3 供水人口• 供水區域
• 人口增加• 自然人口增加率 = 出生率 - 死亡率• 社會人口增加率 = 遷入率 - 遷出率
• 計畫目標年之人口推估• 計畫供水人口 = 推估之計畫目標年人口 X 計畫供水普及
率
• 應回顧過去 20 年之人口資料
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
A. 算術增加
B. 幾何增加
ukdt
dy
m
K.....kkk umu2u1
u
y,kdt
dyp ln yn = ln y0 +Kp n,
yn = y0 +Ku n
,m
K.....kkk pmp2p1
p
n
yln -yln k 0n
p
Where …., etc.0
01p1 y
y-yK
(1)
(2)
2-3-1 數學計算法
yn = y0 (1+Kp)n,
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
C. 減率增加
y)-(kkdt
dyD )e-)(1y-(kyy n-K
00nD
0
nD y-k
y-kln
n
1-k
2-3-1 數學計算法 (續 )
Where KD can be obtained from historical data
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
A. 曲線延長法• 根據過去資料及人口成長相關因素• 順勢延長• 多靠工程師之判斷• 宜與數學方式併用
B. 比較繪圖法• 選取性質相似但人口較多之城市甲乙丙• 作目標城市 (丁 ) 之水平線• 分別座甲乙丙之平行線• 取三者之平均值
2-3-2 繪圖法
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
A. 算術函數式• 以最小二乘法 (Least square) 求增加率
(y) 與人口 (x) 之關係
B. 幾何函數式
2-3-3 統計法
)n
xb()
n
xa(
n
xy
n
xba
n
y
bxay
2
xe) log (B A log y log
Aey Bx
See example on board
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
Where yn is the projected population; m and a1 are constants, x is year to be projected, and k is the highest possible population
xan 1me1
ky
2-3-4 理論曲線法
2120
2021210
01
10
0
0
y-yy
)y(yy-yy2yk
)y-(ky
)y-(kyln
x
1a1
y
y-km
(1) (2)
P
P-100lnxa mln
P
P-100me
Pme1
100
k
y100
1
xa
xan
1
1
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )
• 求過去之 r1 , r2 , r3 etc.
• 預測未來之 r• 以全國計畫目標年之預測人口數成以此比率 r
2-3-5 比例法
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2-3 供水人口 (續 )2-3-6 方法之比較
方法 Good Not so good
數學算術數學幾何減率增加
古老都市之短期預測新興都市之短期預測短期預測
長期預測
曲線延長比較繪圖
成長單純地區較為長期
可能需要與數學方法併用
統計算術統計幾何理論曲線 較為長期比例法
短期預測 : 5-10 年 長期預測 : 15-50 年
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2-4 供水普及率
• 指在自來水供水區域內,供水人口占區域內總人口數之比率。即
100%供水區域總人口數供水人口數
供水普及率
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2-4 供水普及率 (續 )
1 416 7 723 47.86 48.72 ... 2 778 12 598 71.32 69.47 4.59 3 745 15 378 83.42 79.05 5.66 4 544 17 313 87.11 84.22 6.93 5 175 18 481 91.82 87.48 7.15 5 291 18 750 91.14 88.01 7.10 5 496 19 076 91.49 88.84 7.28 5 740 19 408 92.80 89.51 7.21 5 919 19 687 93.20 90.01 7.07 6 089 19 900 93.49 90.31 7.21 6 095 20 160 91.22 90.50 7.25 6 210 20 287 91.29 90.54 7.72 6 339 20 450 91.54 90.81 7.48 6 459 20 553 91.65 90.92 7.38 6 597 20 716 91.88 91.30 7.40
1.88 ( )說 明: 年 含 以前為台灣地區資料。
[1] [2]附 註: 指裝設水錶之資料。 係年底資料。
資料來源:經濟部;http://210.69.121.6/gnweb/
91年92年93年
87年88年89年90年
83年84年85年86年
63年70年75年80年
年別
[1][2]供 水 戶 口 數 [2]普 及 率 平均每人每月 家庭用水量( )立方公尺
戶數( )千戶
人口數( )千人
( )供水戶口占總戶口百分比 %
按戶數計算 按人數計算
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2-5 用水量與供水量
• 每人每日供水量 (367 lpcd in 1997)
• 每人每日供水量 =
• 每人每日用水量 (274 lpcd in 1997)
• 每人每日用水量 =( 售水量 /( 供水人口 X 供水日數 ))
• 售水率 =( 售水量 / 供水量 )• 自來水之出水量組成
供水人口
365
1000CMD
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2-5 用水量與供水量 (續 )
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2-5 用水量與供水量 (續 )• 典型都市用水
1. 家庭用水2. 商業用水3. 工業用水4. 公共用水5. 損漏
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2-5 用水量與供水量 (續 )• 典型都市用水
1. 家庭用水2. 商業用水 :12.2 m3/1000m2/day
3. 工業用水4. 公共用水5. 損漏
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2-5 用水量與供水量 (續 )• 典型都市用水
1. 家庭用水2. 商業用水3. 工業用水4. 公共用水5. 損漏
)P(1.0.01P3.855Q • 市政用水• 消防用水 0.576A)0.068C(10.Q
(1)
(2)
(3) 台灣自來水工程設施標準 ( 人口以萬人計 ) 1---------1 m3/mim
2~3------2 m3/mim4~5------3 m3/mim6~7------4 m3/mim8~9------5 m3/mim>10------6 m3/mim
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2-5 用水量與供水量 (續 )
• 典型都市用水1. 家庭用水2. 商業用水3. 工業用水4. 公共用水5. 損漏
1. 幹管及支管損失2. 水表誤差3. 輸配水管破裂4. 違規用水或竊水
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2-6 用水量之時變遷
• 最大日用水量及最小日用水量• 最大時用水量及最小時用水量
-0.10180tp p 為各用水量與平均日用水量之比t 為時間 (good for 2/24~360 days)
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2-7 水源• 淡水
• 雨水• 地面水• 地下水
• 鹹水• 海水• 有鹽味水
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2-8 設計年限• 建築物及機器之壽命• 擴充之難易• 初期操作• 財務• 人口增加率• 規模• 計畫制實施之延時
各項建議設計年限請參考書本
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2-9 設計容量
• 安全因數• 單元數量• 預留容量• 備用單位
設施 設計容量水井、河川、埧、堰 最大日供水量
輸水管 I及 II 最大日供水量
輸水管 III 、配水系統 最大時供水量
輸水管 IV 最大時 - 最大日 或 最大日 - 最小時
抽水機、淨水廠 最大日供水量 + 備用單位
配水池 25~100% 最大日供水量