Was Nate Silver Wrong?

@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.comWTF

http://factorfirm.com/

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com



WRONG?


@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com



PLACES | THINGSMADE OF INFO



Attention Economy



Hidden costs?



INFLECTION POINT

IS INFLECTED



Is the public less informed?



Fake News





TRUTHINESS



ALTERNATIVE FACTS



STRAW POLL…



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@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com




CONTENT FARMS

DGAF ABOUT UR CONTENT



PRODUCT IS USSUCH BIZ MODEL

SO ATTENTIVE



TFW human interpretation doesn’t matter

THIS IS NOT THE CRAP WE’RE LOOKING FOR



Doing more work for the machines





WHAT INFLUENCE DO WE REALLY HAVE?



RECURSIVE FEEDBACK LOOP IS RECURSIVE





Dopamine Rush

NORMAL COCAINE



Who benefits?

FOLLOW THE MONEY


@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comNOW WITH MORE LOSSY

EFFICIENT MARKET



DDOS ON MEANING


MUGGLES DON’T HAVE TIME

NEITHER DO WIZARDS


WRONG?



How is Data Journalism like IA?



What’s your evidence?



Data vs. Access

Quant vs. Qual



But, getting good data is getting harder.



Downstream Effects



WRONG?



“So number one, and this kind of goes back to the supply chain, but if you're working with

actually trying to manufacture something out of data, to come to some analysis or some

conclusion, you have to make sure the data is good to begin with.”

— Nate Silver, 2011 IAS Keynote



The information supply chain.

Input OutputNoise

The Information Supply Chain



First principle: the data is wrong.



Embracing entropy.


@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comWe can’t read users’ minds.



How to correct for wrong data?



What inputs do we trust?



Prioritizing Input



User Research recruiting



How likely is someone to vote?



Likely voter models



Moving target


Changes over time


Changes over time

BUT HER EMAILS!



The peril of adjustments



Apples to Apples





Third parties are not created equal.



Trend Line Adjustment



House Effects Adjustment



Undecideds?



Even more stuff?

W’ELL BE RIGHT BACK…

WITH MORE STUFF



This message was approved by…



Modeling is done by humans.


@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comElection forecasting is grounded in classic information theory.



“Information is the resolution of uncertainty.”— Claude Shannon



“Findability is at the center of a quiet

revolution in how we define authority, allocate trust,

and make decisions.”

— Peter Morville, Ambient Findability



What does this all mean for Information Architects?



What are our information supply chains?



How do we know?



Our jobs will keep getting harder.



Side doors



Re-orienting Users



We are the definers.



Changes in Page Rank align with us



What can we do as information architects

on the ground?



As IA’s, what effect do we haveon the broader information environment?



How do we give information users the ability determine quality?



What are the implications for organizations?



What are an organization’s information assets?



What is the aboutness of your organization?



Bring the aboutness forward.



Resist the impulse to automate for its own sake.



Automate intelligently.



Consider the question.



Prioritization = values.



What can we do as information architects as a community?What is our responsibility as a community?



What are our goals as a society?



#DTDT#DTDT?



Information environmentalists.



Elevating the signal to noise ratioRestoring a healthy signal to noise ratio.



We need to be careful about giving up human control.



What ambient entropy do automated processes generate?



Good, Cheap, Fast?Pick two.



Engaging the community of thought.



Human solutions for human challenges.


What the triple bottom line?

What is ourtriple bottom line?


MODELING FOR TRUTH, JUSTICE,AND THE CANADIAN WAY



Modeling from the outside in.



Modeling from the inside out.



Make information great againWhat kind of information environment do we want to live in?



The curatorial imperative.



Chance 538 gave Trump of winning the presidency in 2016:

28.6%

Chance a major league baseball playerwould get a hit during any at-bat in 2016:

25.5%



LEAST WRONG


THANK YOU!



Was Nate Silver Wrong?

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