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PV Market Progress and Incentive Policies光伏市场最新进展和光伏政策分析
2012 中国清洁电力峰会-光伏发电分论坛
Wang Sicheng Energy Research Institute, NDRC
世界太阳电池发货量World Solar Cell Shipment(MWp)
66% shared by China mainland + Taiwan;
48% shared by China mainland.
31000.0 24000.0 10660.0 7900.0 4000.0 2500.0 1759.0 1195.0 合计
3000.0 3280.0 1316.0 668.0 663.1 314.0 102.0 89.0 其它
1500.0 1200.0 595.0 432.0 266.1 202.0 154.0 140.0 美国
5500.0 3400.0 1300.0 900.0 450.0 台湾
2500.0 2200.0 1508.0 1300.0 920.0 928.0 833.0 602.0 日本
3500.0 3120.0 1930.0 2000.0 1062.8 657.0 470.0 314.0 欧洲
15000.0 10800.0 4011.0 2600.0 1088.0 400.0 200.0 50.0 中国
2011(E)2010200920082007200620052004公历年
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
30000.0
35000.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(E)
公历年
发货量(
MW) 其它
美国
台湾
日本
欧洲
中国
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世界太阳电池产量年增长率(%)
全球50GW产能,其中中国大约40GW产能,仍然产能过剩。
2012年增长率预期10%左右。
86.70 55.70 31.80 21.10 13.17 8.80 6.09 4.33 3.13 2.39 累计发货量
29.7 123.4 34.9 81.5 61.3 54.0 46.7 61.3 32.6 44.0 年增长率(%)
31.00 23.90 10.70 7.93 4.37 2.71 1.76 1.20 0.74 0.56 年产量
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002年
世界光伏产量年增长率
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0120.0140.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
公历年
年增长率(
%)
44.4%
13.8%
8.1%
6.0%
5.3%
4.2%
3.1%
7.7%
1.9%1.2%
2.2%
2.2%德国
意大利
捷克
日本
美国
法国
中国
西班牙
比利时
加拿大
澳大利亚
其他
2010、2011年国际光伏市场对比
• 2011年世界光伏市场仍主要在欧洲,占世界总安装量的75%。• 2011年德国安装量7.5GW,占世界总安装量的33%。
Source: EPIA March 28, 2011
2010 2011
100.00 4.63 2.53 1.08 1.99 1.45 9.04 5.42 5.79 3.98 0.01 32.55 27.12 2010份额(%)
27.651.280.70.30.550.42.51.51.61.10.00497.52011(GW)
16.71.280.320.20.360.370.520.720.911.362.37.412010(GW)
合计其他澳大利亚加拿大比利时西班牙中国法国美国日本捷克意大利德国国家
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2010-2011国际光伏安装量(MWp)
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2000-2011全球光伏累计装机统计
欧洲装机
世界其它国家和地区装机
世界光伏累计装机(GW)
世界光伏年装机(GW)
2010、2011年国际光伏年装机和累计装机比较(GWp)
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Export PV : Domestic Installation = 1:1
will be a health industry.
2004-2011 PV Export and Domestic Installation(MW)
81.595.49698.598.297.597.580Exp. Share(%)
110001030038512560106839019540Export (MW)
2500500160402010510Annual Ins. (MW)
135001080040112600108840020050Annual Prod. (MW)
2011(E)2010200920082007200620052004Year
2011 Domestic PV Market by Sectors(MW)
100.00 3300.0 100.0 2500.0 Total6
75.82 2502.0 88.0 2200.0 LS-PV5
18.79 620.0 15.2 380.0 Building PV4
1.44 47.5 0.2 5.0 PV Products3
1.45 48.0 0.2 5.0 Comm..& Indus.2
2.50 82.5 0.4 10.0 Rural Electrifi.1
(%)(MWp)(%)(MWp)
ShareCumm. Ins.ShareAnnu.Ins.Market SectorNo.
2011 Domestic PV Market by Sectors (E)
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中国的光伏发电市场PV Market in China
PV Market Sectors
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Rural Electrification
Industry&
Commun.
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Solar Products
PV Buildings
BIPV&BAPV
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LS-PV in Gobi - Desert
The largest PV power plant in the world, 2011-10-29
200MW PV Power Plant by Yellow-River Hydropower
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2011 Domestic PV Market by Sectors(MW)
100.00 3300.0 100.0 2500.0 Total6
75.82 2502.0 88.0 2200.0 LS-PV5
18.79 620.0 15.2 380.0 Building PV4
1.44 47.5 0.2 5.0 PV Products3
1.45 48.0 0.2 5.0 Comm..& Indus.2
2.50 82.5 0.4 10.0 Rural Electrifi.1
(%)(MWp)(%)(MWp)
ShareCumm. Ins.ShareAnnu.Ins.Market SectorNo.
2011 Domestic PV Market by Sectors (E)
China Annual PV Installation (2004-2010)
050
100150200250300350400450500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Inst
alle
d P
V (
MW
)
Off-Grid Grid-Tied
800300140100807062.1Cumulative (MW)
5001604020107.910Annual Inst.
475142212.211.51.2Grid-Tied (MW)
25181917.897.48.8Off-Grid (MW)
2010200920082007200620052004Year
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分布式发电和微电网Distribution Generation and Micro-Grid
分布式发电的定义分布式发电的定义:分布式发电(Distributed Generation,简称DG):
分布式发电通常是指发电功率在几千瓦至数十兆瓦的小型模块
化、分散式、布置在用户附近的,就地消纳、非外送型的发电
单元。主要包括:以液体或气体为燃料的内燃机、微型燃气轮
机、热电联产机组、燃料电池发电系统、太阳能光伏发电、风
力发电、生物质能发电等。
国家能源局“分布式发电管理办法”中给出了分布式发电的概念:
“分布式发电,是指位于用户附近,装机规模较小,电能主要
由用户自用和就地利用的可再生能源、资源综合利用发电设施
或有电力输出的能量梯级利用多联供系统,并网电压等级在
110千伏及以下”。
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发展分布式光伏发电的理由The Reasons to Develop Distribution PV Generation
1. The characteristics of solar resources;
2. 90% PV projects are in grid-tied market;
3. LS-PV power plants face the problems in grid connection due to very few loads locally and have to be transmitted to the load-center far away;
4. Limited by grid capacity in long distance transmission of PV power.
光伏发电大规模发展的主要障碍 ?
Main Barrier for Large Scale PV Utilization ?
电网接入 !
这个障碍需要靠电网企业和光伏企业共同解决。
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将光伏和谐、友好地融入电网
光伏发电的固有缺点
不连续-不稳定-不可调度
使光伏发电做到可预测、可调整、可控制和可调度
过去多年光伏制造企业是光伏事业的发展主要推动力,光伏系统公司到了该发力的时候了。
接入输电网的大型光伏电站
总量控制(电网送出能力的30%)
增强当地对光伏电力的吸纳能力;
增强电网的送出能力;
大规模的储能技术 (抽水蓄能电站)
光伏发电功率预测
◆: 困难 ◆: 容易
- LS-PV
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接入配电网的光伏发电系统
本身就在负荷中心;
不需要提高电网的送出能力;
分布式储能容易解决;
可以做到高穿透率 ( > 80%)
◆: 困难 ◆: 容易
很容易成为电网友好型的分布式发电
- Micro-Grid
Chinese Standard for PV Power Plants .
Standard for the PV power plants connected to low and medium voltage grid.
(380V – 66kV +)
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分布式发电的特点
(1)分布式发电安全可靠性高;
(2)分布式发电抗灾能力强;
(3)非常适合于远离大电网的边远的农村、牧区、山区
供电;
(4)分布式发电主要采用可再生能源,环境效益好;
(5)分布式发电不需要远距离输送电力,成本低、效率
高;
(6)可以满足特殊移动电源的需求;
(7)调峰性能好,操作简单,启停快速,便于实现灵活
调度。
分布式光伏发电的分类
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分布式光伏发电是光伏应用的主流
至2010年底,分布式系统的累计装机容量约有23.4GW,占光伏累计装机容量的66.8%。其中德国14.9GW、日本3.5GW、美国1.7GW、意大利1.5GW和法国0.8GW,中国分布式光伏系统累计装机容量仅有256MW。
数据来源:Trends in Photovoltaic Applications: Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2010, www.iea-pvps.org
美国2010年分布式光伏装机超过82%
数据来源:National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in the United States 2010
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德国光伏并网发电的市场分类之比例
微型电网(Micro Grid)
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鼓励自发自用-直接消费
德国新的上网电价
鼓励自发自用-直接消费
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鼓励自发自用-直接消费
要点:
1、分类:
1)自发自用,不向电网反送电力;
2)自用为主,余电上网;
3)接入公共配电网,电网收购,统购统销。
2、照顾各方利益:
分布式发电管理办法
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微电网的发展和展望
Micro-Grid Development
微型电网(Micro Grid)
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联网型微网
具有并网和独立两种运行模式。在并网工作模式下,一般与中、低压配电网并网运行,互为支撑,实现能量的双向交换。在外部电网故障情况下,可转为独立运行模式,提高了供电可靠性。通过采取先进的控制策略和控制手段,可保证微网高电能质量供电,也可以实现两种运行模式的无缝切换。
不和常规电网相连接,利用自身的分布式电源满足微网内负荷的需求。当网内存在可再生能源分布式电源时,需要配置储能系统以抑制这类电源的功率波动。这类微网更加适合在海岛、边远地区等地为用户供电。
独立型微网
1.3 微网分类
微电网工程示范Micro-Grid Demonstration
During the 12th 5-year plan(2011-2015),Chinese government plan to build 30 Micro-
grid demonstrations.
In fact, there are already some micro-grid pilot projects are completed。
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International Study Tour(Europe)
Denmark
Germany
Greece
RISO-DTU Lab. For Smart-grid and Micro-Grid
RISO实验室(SYSLAB)的主要设备:光伏发电: 7kWGala 风机: 11kWBonus 风机: 55kW柴油发电机:60kVA4个可控负荷:180kW背靠背逆变器:30kW智能办公室:20kW全矾液流电池:15kW/120kWh旋转双向电机:30kW电动汽车:9kWh电容堆:46kVAr
400V交流总线,所有设备通过高速以太局域网实施控制。
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Can supply power to grid at fixed power level
红色负荷曲线:大约只有1.5kW;灰色线:全矾液流电池的充放电功率曲线,纵轴以下是充电,纵轴以上是放电;蓝色线:电网曲线,纵轴以下是供电状态,纵轴以上是吸收状态;绿色线:风力发电曲线,只有11kW的风机工作,最高输出也才只有5kW左右;最上面的灰色线:光伏发电曲线,日照很好,接近满功率7kW。右侧的跌落是云层干扰
In ControlNot control
PowerLab DK Pilot Project for Micro-Grid
热电联产机组(CHP):总功率35MW,可以燃煤也可以烧生物质燃料。如果全部发电,可以发35MW,如果供热,则发电功率仅为16MW。孤岛运行时由CHP建网;燃油机组:34MW;燃油蒸汽发电机组:25MW;风力发电机组:30MW;光伏发电:计划2011-2012年建成2MW分布式光伏发电系统,最终要建成5MW光伏发电;沼气发电:2MW。
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Isolated Micro-Grid at Kythnos Island, Greece
微电网通过48V/1000Ah铅酸蓄电池组和三台SMA的Sunny-Island 5048(48V/5kW电压源双向逆变器)建立三相交流微电网,7套光伏系统,每套2kW左右,分别安装在各个用户处,光伏系统通过SMA的Sunny-Boy(电流源并网逆变器)与交流微电网并网运行。
通过无线通信网控制到每一户的负载设备
根据频率平衡微网的供用电,使微网稳定运行。
2个多晶硅光伏方阵,4.4kW固定方阵,1.1kW双轴追日系统,各自通过单相并网逆变器并入微网;一组 96V/400Ah铅酸蓄电池通过一台96V/9kW的三相双向逆变器并网;一组60V/690Ah铅酸蓄电池通过三台SMA单相双向逆变器组成三相电源并网;一台三相12.5kVA柴油发电机组;一套5kW质子交换膜燃料电池系统通过一台三相逆变器并网;13kW三相平衡阻性负载、三相容性负载、2.2kW感性负载和2台单相水泵。
National RE Center of Greece
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Micro-grid Demonstration at Hangzhou Electronic-Tech University
Present by Japan:
(1)PV-120kW, DG-120kW, Battery-50kWh;
(2)Grid-connected operation;
(2)Input & Output Control-able;
(3)Intentional Islanding operation。
Wind-PV-Diesel-Battery Hybrid Micro-grid at Dongfushan Island, Zhejiang Province
Diesel Generator: 250kW, Wind Turbines: 210kW,
PV: 100kW, Battery Bank: 980kWh
Voltage of the transmission line on the island: 10kV
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Hydro-Power and PV Hybrid Micro-grid,Qinghai Prov.
Location: Yushu, Qinghai Province
System Configuration:
(1)Hydro-power: 12MW;
(2)PV Plant: 2.0MW;
(3)Battery: 15.2MWh.
Complete Time:
Dec., 2011
中国的激励政策和政府项目Incentive Policies and Government Project
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Incentive Policies in China for RE
Highlights of PV Policies in China in 2011
1. Feed-in Tariff (FIT) for PV was released by NDRC in July, 2011. 1.15 Yuan/kWh for the projects installed before the end of 2011 and 1.0 Yuan/kWh for the projects in 2012;
2. Surcharge for RE is doubled from 0.4 cents/kWh to 0.8 cents/kWh. 20-24 billion Yuan can be collected from whole China annually; Plus about 10 billion RE Specific Fund, 30-34 billion RMB available annually.
3. Targets of PV for 2015 and 2020 increased significantly: 15GW for 2015 and 50GW for 2020.
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光伏标杆电价出台
1、1.15 Yuan/kWh for the projects finished before the end of 2011;
2、1.0 Yuan/kWh for the projects finished after Dec. 31, 2011;
National - wide FIT for PV was
released in July, 2011.
2.2 GW of LS-PV was installed in China in 2011.
The surcharge for RE is doubled from 0.4 cents/kWh to 0.8 cents/kWh.
(All of above is in effective from Dec. 1st, 2011)
Document Issued by Price Bureau of NDRC
(Nov. 29, 2011)
20-24 billion Yuan can be collected every year to support RE power generation.
Double Surcharge for RE
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Special Fund for Renewable EnergyFinancial Source
PV Building 7.0,off-grid >7.0About 1000 MW4th Phase 2012
C-Si 9.0, a-Si 8.5140 projects,690MW3rd Phase 2011
PV Building 11.5,off-grid 1650 projects,272MW2nd Phase 2010
PV Building 14.5,off-grid 2098 projects,201MW1st Phase 2009
Subsidy to Capital Inv.CapacityPhases
Golden-Sun Program
Special Fund for Renewable EnergyFinancial Source
BIPV 9, BAPV 7.5150-200 MW4th Phase 2012
BIPV 12元/W108 projects,120MW3rd Phase 2011
BIPV 17, BAPV 1399 projects,90.2MW2nd Phase 2010
BIPV 20, BAPV 15111 projects,91MW1st Phase 2009
Subsidy to Capital Inv.CapacityPhases
PV Building Project
Surcharge for Renewable EnergyFinancial Source
FIT = 1.0 Yuan/kWh3000 MW ?2012年
FIT = 1.15 Yuan/kWh2200 MW2011年
FIT = 0.7288-0.9907 Yuan/kWh13 projects,280MW2nd Phase 2010
FIT = 1.0928 Yuan/kWh2 projects,20MW1st Phase 2009
Feed-in TariffCapacityPhases
Large-Scale PV Power Plants
Incentive Policies in China for RE
欧洲的电力市场
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Power Market in Germany
中国的电力体制和电力市场 –大型电站
中国实际上没有电力市场
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中国的电力体制和电力市场 –自备电厂
合同能源管理:违反电力法?
自备电厂:燃气轮机、CHP、余热发电、光伏发电
Government Approved the First
Demonstration Project of Micro-Grid
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政府目标和平价上网路线图
Government Target and Grid-parity Roadmap
光伏组件、光伏系统和光伏发电的当前价格
1.0Yuan/kWh (IRR = 8%)光伏电价 (初投资每瓦12元,年满发1500小时)
About 12 Yuan/Wp光伏建筑系统价格
10-12 Yuan/WpLS-PV系统价格
$0.6 USD/Wpa-Si 组件成本
5-6 Yuan/Wpa-Si 组件价格
$0.8USD/Wp晶硅组件成本
5.5-6.0 Yuan/Wp晶硅组件价格
“平价上网”指日可待!
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< 15年资金回收年限Pay-back Years
15年折旧期Depreciation Period
8%税后内部收益率IRR
20年运营期Operation Years
8%附加税率Other Tax
7.05%贷款利息Interest
25%所得税率Income Tax
15年贷款年限Loan Duration
17%增值税率VAT Rate
80% 贷款比例Loan
0.5%年运行费用O&M Cost
800-1800小时
年满发小时数Annual Full Run Hrs
90%固定资产折旧率Depreciation Rate
1.0-1.4万元/kW
光伏系统初投资Capital Invest.
光伏发电分类电价测算条件
不同初投资和资源条件下的光伏电价测算(考虑了增值税抵扣)
0.90 18000.84 18000.77 18000.71 18000.64 1800
0.95 17000.89 17000.82 17000.75 17000.68 1700
1.01 16000.94 16000.87 16000.80 16000.73 1600
1.08 15001.00 15000.93 15000.85 15000.77 1500
1.16 14001.07 14000.99 14000.91 14000.83 1400
1.25 13001.16 13001.07 13000.98 13000.89 1300
1.35 12001.25 12001.16 12001.06 12000.97 1200
1.47 11001.37 11001.26 11001.16 11001.05 1100
1.62 10001.50 10001.39 10001.27 10001.16 1000
1.80 9001.67 9001.54 9001.42 9001.29 900
2.03 8001.88 8001.74 8001.59 8001.45 800
电价(元/kWh)
年满发(小时/年)
电价(元/kWh)
年满发(小时/年)
电价(元/kWh)
年满发(小时/年)
电价(元/kWh)
年满发(小时/年)
电价(元/kWh)
年满发(小时/年)
并网光伏(1.4万元/kW)
并网光伏(1.3万元/kW)
并网光伏(1.2万元/kW)
并网光伏(1.1万元/kW)
并网光伏(1.0万元/kW)
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相对于工商业零售电价,光伏已经接近平价
中国东部城市平均工商业用电: 0.925Yuan/kWh
组件价格:5-6 Yuan/Wp;
光伏系统价格:12 Yuan/kWh;
光伏合理电价:0.94 Yuan/kWh(1500 Hrs),1.3 Yuan/kWh(1100Hrs)
0.83600 0.836Hainan
0.83630 0.8363Shandong
0.91480 0.9148Guangdong
0.94483 0.51740.83971.3349NAFujian
0.95510 0.32140.71311.12781.163Hebei
1.02038 0.59NA 1.1131.418Zhejiang
1.00750 0.2740.741.168NAShanghai
1.10475 0.3350.7811.2531.368Beijing
白天平均电价Daily Average
低谷电价Low
平段电价Normal
高峰电价Peak
尖峰电价Highest
Province
部分省、市工商业用电(小于1000V)峰谷电价(元/kWh)
Target of PV for 2020 (GW)
500-100020068.0世界World
50(100)1.63.0中国 China
20(2022年)0.5印度 India
100-350364.0美国 US
100-4004050.0欧洲 EU
28144.7日本 Japan
Target of 2020Original Target of 2020
2011Country
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页岩气-对RE的威胁?2011年美国生产出1700亿立方米(相当于2.4亿吨标准煤)的页岩气。
发改能源〔2012〕612号 2012年3月13日
国家发展改革委 财政部 国土资源部 国家能源局关于印发页岩气发展规划(2011-2015年)的通知
“中国的页岩气储量超过其它任何一个国家,可采储量有36万亿立方米,约相当于430亿吨标准煤(中国2011年天然气产量755亿立方米,进口300亿立方米)。2015年产量达10亿立方米”
都属于清洁能源,共同发展,光伏也可以成为廉价的优质能源。
谢谢!Thank You Very Much!