Voka final 1
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De onweerstaanbare China-‐verslaving.
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“
“
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1. Cijfers liegen vaak in China. U krijgt er veel. 2. Chinezen vertrouwen hun media. Wie anders? 3. Klein is niet fijn in een groot land. 4. Banken zijn nog oké. Maar voor hoelang? 5. Toch maar liever zelf zoeken dan blind geloven. 6. Verslaafd aan sociale media. 7. Ontrouw alom! 8. Het land van de aanraders. En dus de volgers. 9. Maar ook het land van de marketers die dat nog niet echt
willen geloven ook al zien ze het.
Het menu voor vandaag.
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“Gini = 0.61 for 2010” Southwestern University of Finance (Chengdu) in 2012
0.474 or 0.61? 0.469
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Wie vertrouwt Chinese cijfers over China? De Chinezen niet. Een korrel zout dus, graag …
”Verdienen deze 10% “rijken” maar 7.000€ / jaar of … 15 à 16.000?”
For 2012, the naQonal G.D.P. figure is esQmated to be nearly 52 trillion renminbi (about $8.3 trillion,) while the provincial total was nearly 58 trillion (about $9.3 trillion.)
“Media exposes total G.D.P. of all provinces exceeds naQonal G.D.P. by over 5 trillion renminbi,” (the exact figure was 5.76 trillion,) a headline announced in the 21CN News.
The gap is ge^ng bigger, fast: in 2009, total provincial G.D.P. was nearly 2.7 trillion more than naQonal G.D.P.; in 2010 it was more than 3 trillion; in 2011 it was 4.6 trillion, the Beijing News reported.
In a chain of exaggeraQon that begins at the village or county level, the figures pile up unQl they overreach any possible naQonal total, the arQcles indicate.
9% 9% 1%
10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Weinig verdieners Veel verdieners
Minder dan 2€ per dag
Meer dan 40€ per dag
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Zo werkt het mechanisme. Al jaren. En het lijkt ook niet te stoppen.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324906004578287182123200020.html?mod=djemITPA_t
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Chinezen vertrouwen in ‘t algemeen hun media. “Ze coveren de schandalen.”
hfp://www.slideshare.net/EdelmanInsights/global-‐deck-‐2013-‐edelman-‐trust-‐barometer-‐16086761
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Chinezen vertrouwen ook grote bedrijven. Klein is niet fijn. ”The winners take it all”.
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Uit onze eigen cijfers van de nog jonge daily deal markt blijkt ook die “magneet van groot”.
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Chinezen vertrouwen zelfs nog hun banken. In het Westen zijn die allang in de fout gegaan.
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Banken worden er bovendien geapprecieerd! Vandaar het vertrouwen.
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In de top van de Chinese merken zit het vol banken en verzekeringen.
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Die top-‐Chinese merken zijn ook topgebruikers van de sociale media.
hfp://www.resonancechina.com/2013/02/06/chinese-‐valuable-‐brands-‐more-‐present-‐in-‐social-‐media/
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CEO’s en ambtenaren van die insQtuten zijn echter te mijden!
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De kloof tussen het vertrouwen in de insQtuten (ook bedrijven) en het wantrouwen in de leiders is groot.
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“Ik zoek het liever zelf wel op” denkt men. Zeker in de emerging countries, zo blijkt.
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China: 46 minuten per dag zifen de Chinezen op sociale media. Japan: 7 min. VS: 37 min.
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Meer social media is minder Qjd op andere
sites en
veranderend communicaQe-‐gedrag.
(Record 34,977 posts seen on Sina Weibo in first second of lunar new year)
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Trouw zijn de Chinezen echter niet. Ook niet aan hun sociale media.
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In China hebben sociale media grotere invloed op aankopen dan waar ook ter wereld.
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Een “vreemde” studie van het Belgische Insites
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Veel meer babbels over merken offline dan online. (Overal ter wereld overigens.)
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Vrienden en familie? Die zijn boven alles te vertrouwen als informaQebron. Reclame…?
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De Chinezen? Ze kopen veel online en ze laten het ook graag aan iedereen weten.
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De conclusie? Reclame werkt minder en minder.
Ook in China. Zelfs in China.
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1980-‐1990:AdverQsing +10% = +2.2% marketshare 2008:AdverQsing +20% = +2.2% marketshare
“ …. the authors conduct a meta-‐analysis of 751 short-‐term and 402 long-‐term direct-‐to-‐consumer brand advercsing elasccices escmated in 56 studies published between 1960 and 2008. the study finds several new empirical generalizacons about advercsing elasccity. the most important are as follows: the average short-‐term advercsing elasccity is .12, which is substancally lower than the prior meta-‐analycc mean of .22; there has been a decline in the advercsing elasccity over cme.”
Gerard Tellis, PhD Michigan, is Professor of MarkeQng, Management, and OrganizaQon, Neely Chair of American Enterprise, and Director of the Center for Global InnovaQon, at the USC Marshall School of Business. He is DisQnguished Visitor of MarkeQng Research, Erasmus University, Roferdam and has been VisiQng Chair of MarkeQng, Strategy, and InnovaQon at the Judge Business School, Cambridge University, UK. Tellis specializes in the areas of innovaQon, adverQsing, global strategy, market entry, new product growth, promoQon, and pricing.
Prof. Dr. Gerard Tellis
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Reclame steeg -‐ in de VS -‐ sneller dan BBP en mediaan salaris. Waarom?
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Media rates set to increase by 14% in China in 2013. Media spending was expected to grow by 7% on an annual basis in 2013.
• Digital: +18% • Outdoor: +6% • TV: +5% • Radio: +5% • Newspapers: +3% • Magazines: +2%
In China vliegt de media-‐kost weer de hoogte in! Wie gaat dat blijven betalen?
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Minder en minder merken betalen. Vandaar de toenemende interesse voor “aanraders” & “afraders”.
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Op basis waarvan wordt iemand “aanrader” of “afrader”?
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Aanraders (15% van de consumers) beïnvloeden rechtstreeks 20-‐50% van alle aankopen.
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“… while consumer electronics buyers pay more ajencon to other consumers’ reviews than to editorial reviews – by a margin of more than three to one (77 percent vs. 23 percent) – a majority are concerned about the authenccity of consumer reviews (80 percent), leading them to conduct considerable analysis before making their decision.”
Hoe en wie beïnvloedt wie feitelijk? En is dat dan allemaal wel te vertrouwen?
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EvaluaQng Buying
SelecQng brand
Consuming
15% are “influencing”
others
SelecQng shop
85% are being
influenced
1st moment of truth 3rd moment of truth 2nd moment of truth
(Neutral) Promoter><Detractor Consumer
Hoe verloopt het koopproces feitelijk? Wat zijn de cruciale “momenten van de waarheid”?
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Om “aanraders” en “afraders” te idenQficeren, stellen nu al 1000-‐en bedrijven de eeuwige Reichheld-‐vraag.
Reichheld. Bain-‐partner.
De éne vraag die nu door meer en meer bedrijven gesteld wordt. In dit geval op de site van Klout.
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Die ene vraag stellen we ook in China. Ze staat centraal op de Holaba-‐site.
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88
8
NPS
Maar we stellen dé vraag niet alleen aan de eigen klanten -‐ zoals NPS doet.
NPS
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NPS
Ook niet-‐klanten vellen immers oordelen, praten erover en …beïnvloeden anderen.
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Wat gaat u dit jaar kopen op basis van wat “aanraders” en “afraders” u vertellen?
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Jan Van den Bergh 杨⽂文博
[email protected] hRps://www.facebook.com/jevedebe hRps://www.facebook.com/holaba TwiRer:@holaba Skype:jevedebechina
+86 136 2179 9450 (CH) +32 475 427 882 (BEL) A : 上海市新闸路831号丽都新贵13层F室, 200041 13-F, No 831 Xin Zha Road, Shanghai, 200041