VIETNAM Vietnam Market Outlook … · Source: ; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: ; CBRE Vietnam,...

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEW NORMAL

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VIETNAM

A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K

2



3


1. VIETNAM ECONOMY


4

More than 200 tons of died fish collected in Westlake, Hanoi

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES C H A L L E N G E S F R O M D R O U G H T, F LO O D A N D OT H E R S


5

URBAN MIGRATION AND ITS NET EFFECT

159,501 Passenger Cars Sold in 2016 (up 36% y-o-y)

3,121,023 Motorbikes Sold in 2016 (up 9.5% y-o-y)

8,000 motorbikes/day


6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Rea

l G

DP

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

%)

Source: GSO, Oxford Economics 2016.

2016 GDP GROWTH LOWER THAN EXPECTED

6.21%

Forecast

S T I L L A M O N G R E G I O N ’ S S T R O N G E S T


7

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Inte

rest

ra

te (

%)

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate

Average CPI: 2.7% y-o-y Basic Inflation: 1.83% y-o-y

Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research Q2 2016

INFLATION PICKS UP WHILE INTEREST RATES STAYED LOW

Source: GSO, CBRE Vietnam.


8

Source: HNC, Gold.org, SJC, SBV.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex

Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil

MAJOR ASSET CLASSES


9

FDI REACHED 8 -YEAR HIGH

24

-

20

40

60

802

00

7

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Reg

iste

red

FD

I (U

S$

Bil

lio

ns)

Real estate accounts for 7% of

registered FDI, ranks 2nd among sectors

1

2

3

Major Real Estate Deals, 2016

US$315m Industrial Park - Quang Ninh

US$309m Township - Dong Nai

US$300m 21-storey building - Hanoi

Vietnam Registered FDI in 2016: US$24.4 billion

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment.


10

REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD

(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only. (**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

CPI (%) y-o-y 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 4.7

Trade balance (US$, bil)

(1.1) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3)

Retail & services Turnover (VND, tril)

273.3 294.7 295.8 294.4 302.9 320.2

BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

VN-Index 576.1 545.3 652.2 682.3 663.5 681.3

USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,458 21,881 21,862 22,156 22,156 22,161

Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.4 32.8 36.8 35.8 36.1 36.7

Lending Rate (%)* 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4%

Deposit rate (%)** (1-year term)

6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6%

REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

Real Estate Holding & Development Listed Companies

48.60 45.22 51.00 47.24 45.63 46.55

Real Estate Services Listed Companies

52.8 41.3 28.3 30.89 26.98 27.06

Source: Stockbiz, Jan 2017

Source: GSO, Dec, 2016

Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, Jan, 2017

NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

HCMC New launches (unit) 70,902 37,278 21,088 11,926 6,272 3,957

HN New launches (unit) 45,921 25,485 17,460 10,409 5,712 2,712

Source: CBRE, Dec 2016


11

BCI NUMBERS

All Future Projects

(2017-2030) HCMC Hanoi

Da Nang

Can Tho

Nha Trang

Vung Tau

Hai Phong

Office 253 247 53 33 20 36 47

Retail 164 132 66 5 22 11 11

Hospitality and SA

60 31 76 4 56 17 6

Residential 404 188 42 13 13 22 10

Total 881 598 237 55 111 86 74

Projects Under

Construction

HCMC Hanoi Da

Nang Can Tho

Nha Trang

Vung Tau

Hai Phong

Office 142 161 27 20 13 16 29

Retail 100 81 47 2 14 6 8

Hospitality and SA

35 16 55 4 35 10 3

Residential 286 105 22 8 23 13 8

Total 563 363 151 34 85 45 48

Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017.

-100%

100%

300%

HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong

Perce

ntag

e cha

nge

2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015

-100%

100%

300%

HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong

Perce

ntag

e cha

nge

2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015

ALL FUTURE PROJECTS (2016 – 2030), Y-O-Y CHANGE PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION, Y-O-Y CHANGE

http://www.bciasia.com/

http://www.bciasia.com/


12

THE MAIN NEW FOCUSES… ANYTHING BUT TPP

Forget TPP, The Focus is now on

RCEP


13

THE ONE BIG MANUFACTURER

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment.

US$ 36.4 billion

9.3% y-o-y 7,036

2,590

2,419

1,875

1,860

South Korea

Japan

Singapore

China

Taiwan

Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016


14

THAT ONE BIG DEVELOPER


15

HCMC 20 GOLDEN S ITES 2 C O M P L E T E D, 4 U N D E R C O N S T R U C T I O N

VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER

UNION SQUARE

SAIGON MELINH TOWER

THE SPIRIT OF SAIGON

SJC

VINCOM CENTER DONG KHOI

3

16

7

2

1

9

20

5

17

4

6 13 8

18 19

12 14

15

11


16

WALKABOUT IN HCMC BUSY CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN DISTRICT 1 AND DISTRICT 3

95 projects found on 132 streets in District 1

15 Cleared Sites

5 Public Projects

7 Hotels

6 Residential

2 Retail

33 Offices

45 projects found on 24 streets in District 3

18 Offices

2 SAs

2 Residential

8 Private Use

2 Hotels

10 Unknown

3 Others

Only 2 Grade A


17

FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 FORTUNE COMPANIES IN VIETNAM

218 companies in 2015 230 companies in 2016

Source: CBRE Vietnam.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Food

& D

rug

Sto

res

Tele

com

mun

ication

s

App

are

l

Tra

nspo

rtation

Chem

ical

Techn

olo

gy

Ene

rgy

Eng

inee

ring

& C

on

str

uctio

n

House

hold

pro

du

cts

Busin

ess S

erv

ice

Mo

tor

Ve

hic

les &

Pa

rts

Reta

iling

Wh

ole

sa

lers

Fin

ance

Health

Ca

re

Ind

ustr

ials

Food

, B

eve

rag

es &

To

ba

cco

Ho

tels

, R

esta

ura

nts

&…

Aeo

rosp

ace

s &

De

fen

se

Ma

teri

als

Me

dia

No

. o

f co

mp

an

ies

2015

2016


18


2. INFRASTRUCTURE


19

Under construction

Under planning 2 3

1

4 5 6

INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S

Retail

Office

Amenities

P Parking

A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION


20

INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Under Construction Metro Line

Under Planning Metro Line

D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S

Retail

Office

Amenities

P Parking

2

3

A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION

THE EIGHT METRO LINES OF HANOI


21

MEANWHILE IN BANGKOK


22


3. CONDOMINIUM


23

OVERSUPPLY CONCERN

Hot launches near Thu Thiem

147 deals closed from July 2015 up to December 2016

Some projects in Thao Dien already reached the 30% threshold of foreign buyers

Main groups of foreign buyers in 2016: Singapore: 18% Japan/Hong Kong/Europe: 16% each

FOREIGN BUYERS AT CBRE


24

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR

NEW LAUNCH DECREASE Y -O-Y BUT HIGHER ON 10 -YR AVERAGE

37,419 units 10% y-o-y

HCMC - 2016 30,028 units 13% y-o-y

HANOI - 2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No

. o

f u

nit

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No

. o

f u

nit



25

36% 40%

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Luxury: >US$3,500 per sm

High-end: US$1,500 to US$3,500 per sm Mid-end: US$800 to $1,500 per sm

Affordable: US$800 per sm

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016


36% 40% 47%

HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN

MID-END SEGMENT EXPANDING E A S I N G H I G H - E N D OV E R S U P P LY F E A R

51%

42%56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016



26

H C M C : E A S T A N D S O U T H

North 7%

East 41%

West 11% Central

8%

South 34%

H A N O I : W E S T A N D S O U T H W E S T

West 37%

South West 24%

South 12%

East 10%

North 4%

Midtown 7%

CBD 1%

CBD fringe 6%

NEW LAUNCH REMAINS STRONG IN DECENTRALIZED DISTRICTS

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.


27

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

lau

nch

su

pp

ly (

un

its)


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

lau

nch

su

pp

ly (

un

its)



HANOI - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST HCMC - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST

LOWER SEGMENTS IN THE L IMEL IGHT FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS

Forecast Forecast


28

NEW SALES 2016

21,188 units

2% y-o-y

HANOI

35,008 units

4% y-o-y

HCMC

SALES DECREASE Y-O-Y B U T I S C ATC H I N G U P FA S T W I T H N E W L AU N C H

2016: 69% TOTAL SOLD UNITS (*) NEW LAUNCH

HANOI

2015: 64%

2016: 94% HCMC

2015: 88% (%)

(*) Total sold units include both units sold at newly-launched projects in the period and at previously-launched projects



29

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

No

. o

f so

ld u

nit

s



HANOI – SOLD UNITS BY YEAR HCMC - SOLD UNITS BY YEAR

SALES MOMENTUM REMAINS UPBEAT

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F2018F2019F

No

. o

f so

ld u

nit

s


Forecast Forecast


30

~68.6% of new launches sold in 2016

No. of Project

Sales rate (%)

1

44%

9

50%

7

53%

14

62%

6

48%

3

72%

4

48%

4

69%

3

32%

9

57%

3

42%

5

53%

11

70%

3

65%

2

42%

9

73%

1

88%

HCMC: HIGH SALES RATES IN DISTRICT 2 , 9 AND NHA BE Implication for districts only, not exact project location


31

Implication for districts only, not exact project location

No. of Projects Sales rate (%)

5 62%

2 82%

5 69%

2 62%

5 86%

3 76%

13 75%

13 65%

8 48%

7 53%

~64% of new launch in 2016 sold

HIGH SALES RATES IN BA DINH, HAI BA TRUNG DISTRICTS


32

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e (%

)


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019FPer

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e (%

)

HANOI - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST

HCMC - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST

PRIMARY PRIC ING UP ACROSS SEGMENTS

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Note: (1) Base year is 2005 (2) No luxury projects in Hanoi until 2011.

Forecast


33


4. OFFICE


34

Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.

Tenant - Driven Landlord – Driven

Shanghai Shenzhen

Brisbane Guangzhou

Ho Chi Minh City Mumbai

Beijing Hong Kong New Delhi

Auckland Bangkok

Taipei Tokyo

Melbourne Sydney

Bangalore

Hanoi Perth Seoul

Singapore

APAC OFF ICE RENTAL CYCLE


35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30S

yd

ney

Bang

alo

re

Melb

ou

rne

Bang

ko

k

Guan

gzhou

Gurg

aon

Auckla

nd

Tokyo

Brisban

e

Mum

bai

Hano

i

Ho C

hi M

inh C

ity

Taip

ei

Delh

i

Seou

l

Hong

Kong

Shan

gha

i

Shen

zh

en

Pert

h

Beiji

ng

Ja

kart

a

Sin

gap

ore

Gra

de

A E

ffec

tive

Ren

tal G

row

th (

%) 2016F 2017F

WEAKER RENTAL GROWTH IS EXPECTED

Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.

Bottoming Out

Peaking


36

Hanoi

Rents

2.9% y-o-y 0.6%

y-o-y

3.3 ppts y-o-y

5.6 ppts y-o-y

Vacancy rate (%)

Grade A Grade B

HCMC

Rents

Vacancy rate (%)

Grade A Grade B

1.9% y-o-y

6.2% y-o-y

1.6 ppts y-o-y

VACANCY TRENDS DIFFER

Rent: US$/sm/month, excludes VAT and Service charge Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.

3.3 ppts y-o-y

US$36 US$21 US$28 US$18

8.0% 2.8% 15.8% 16.5%


37

+14% y-o-y

415,355 sm

+5% y-o-y

774,792 sm

Grade A: Grade B:

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

To

tal

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A,

sm)

Grade A Grade B

HANOI - TOTAL SUPPLY HCMC - TOTAL SUPPLY

+7.7% y-o-y

758,280 sm

+1.5% y-o-y

321,557 sm

Grade A: Grade B:

SUPPLY GROWTH FASTER IN HANOI


0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

To

tal

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A,

sm)

Grade A Grade B


38

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,0002

00

9

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A, s

m)

Grade A Grade B

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

Su

pp

ly (

sm, N

LA

)

Grade A Grade B

HANOI – NEW SUPPLY FORECAST HCMC - NEW SUPPLY FORECAST

…BUT HCMC STARTED TO CATCH UP

No

New

Su

pp

ly

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.

Forecast Forecast


39

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Net

ab

sorp

tio

n

(NL

A,

sm)

Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B

NET ABSORPTION LAGS BEHIND 2015


HANOI – Net Absorption

HCMC – Net Absorption

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net

Ab

sorp

tio

n

(NL

A,

sm)


40

-2.9% y-o-y

US$ 28.5

+0.6% y-o-y

US$ 17.8

Grade A: Grade B:

HANOI - ASKING RENTS HCMC - ASKING RENTS

US$21.0

+6.2% y-o-y

US$36.6

Grade A: Grade B: +1.9% y-o-y

MODERATE RENTAL GROWTH IN HCMC W H I L E R AT E S A R E S TA B I L I Z I N G I N H A N O I


0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Ask

ing

ren

ts (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

Grade A Grade B

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

ren

ts (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

Grade A Grade B


41

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Ren

te (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Va

can

cy r

ate

s (%

)

Ren

ts (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

HANOI – PERFORMANCE FORECAST HCMC – PERFORMANCE FORECAST

ST ILL LARGELY A TALE OF TWO CIT IES L I M I T E D R E N TA L G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S


Forecast Forecast

Grade A – Rents Grade B – Rents

Grade A – Vacancy Grade B – Vacancy The presented rents are rents of Q4 of each respected year.


42

DISRUPTIVE TECH & ENTRENEURSHIP P R O P T E C H, R E T E C H, C O -W O R K I N G S PAC E


43

Decentralization

Limited space in CBD: • Rental growth for

CBD buildings • Certain winners in

Midtown and West

Flight to Quality

• Big occupiers to relocate and expand to higher quality buildings

Diversified Demand

• High demand from traditional sectors

• Start-ups boom: Growth of Co-working space

Supply Growth

• New supply coming from CBD and Non-CBD area to meet strong market demand

Hanoi HCMC Hanoi & HCMC

OPPORTUNIT IES ABOUND FOR THE MARKET


44


5. RETAIL


45

HCMC

HANOI

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Su

pp

ly

(NL

A, s

m)

RETAIL SUPPLY GROWTH ACCELERATING IN BOTH CIT IES

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Su

pp

ly

(NL

A, s

m)

Forecast



46

26,000 sm NLA Expected 2018

35,000 sm GFA Expected 2020

59,000 sm NLA Expected 2017



53,000 sm GFA Opened Q1 2016


ROBUST NEW SUPPLY IN AND OUT OF HCMC CBD

2017-2020 Completion (E)

2016 Opening





47

BA DINH

TAY HO

HOAN KIEM

DONG DA

HAI BA TRUNG

LONG BIEN

HOANG MAI

CAU GIAY TU LIEM

DONG ANH

HOAI DUC

HA DONG THANH TRI

GIA LAM

THANH XUAN

WEST LAKE








RETAIL SUPPLY IS FURTHER DECENTRALIZED IN HANOI

2017-2019 Completion (E)

2016 Opening 18,900 sm GFA Expected 2017



48

PLACEMAKING MADE ITS WAY TO VIETNAM

R E TA I L E R S D E M A N D


PLACEMAKING IS ABOUT CREATING AN

ENVIRONMENT THAT PEOPLE WANT

TO VISIT AND RETURN TO

T R A D I T I O N A L VA LU E S W I T H A C R E AT I V E TO U C H

ASIA PACIFIC

VIETNAM

Luxury

F&B Fast Fashion Sport Entertainment


49

9%

36% 37%

19%

8%

22%

12%

5%

19% 19%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

HongKong

India Indonesia Malaysia NewZealand

Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia-Pacific

CA

GR

20

15

-20

20

E-c

om

mer

ce R

even

ue

(US

D b

illi

on

)

2015 E-commerce Revenue CAGR 2015-2020

CHANGING DIGITAL LANDSCAPE IN VIETNAM E - C O M M E R C E : F U T U R E T R E N D ?

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, 2016


50

(US$ per NLA sm on ground and first floor, excl. tax and service charge)

0

30

60

90

120

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

CBD Non-CBD

CBD

2% y-o-y

-5.9% y-o-y

Non-CBD

RENTAL GROWTH L IMITED TO CBD MALLS

CBD

15.1% y-o-y

-4.4% y-o-y

Non-CBD


HCMC HANOI

0

30

60

90

120

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

CBD Non-CBD


51

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Vac

ancy

Rat

e (%

)

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

HANOI

RENTAL RATES TO STABIL IZE AMIDST FURTHER SUPPLY

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Vac

ancy

Ra

te (

%)

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rent Vacancy

HCMC


Forecast


52


6. LOGISTICS


53

Electronics Automobile & Motorcycle

E-commerce

Local Foreigner

RISING DEMAND FROM E-COMMERCE AND HI-TECH SECTORS

MORE QUALITY SUPPLY



54

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

0

40

80

120

160

200

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

NF

A (

'00

0 s

qm

)

New Supply - South New Supply - NorthVacancy Rate - South Vacancy Rate - North

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

0

40

80

120

160

200

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

NF

A (

'00

0 s

qm

)

New Supply - South New Supply - NorthVacancy Rate - South Vacancy Rate - North

Warehouse - New supply and vacancy rate Ready-built-factory - New supply and vacancy rate

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen

M O R E Q UA L I T Y S U P P LY

MOVING UP THE VALUE CHAIN

FTAs alternative for TPP. Supply: more quality supply from both foreigner and local developers. Demand: more demand from electronics, e-commerce and FMCG sectors. Rents: large number of supply in 2017 lead to slower growth in rents

Forecast Forecast


55

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th Y

-o-Y

Ren

tal

rate

(U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rents - South Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North

Warehouse - rental rate Ready-built-factory - rental rate

MODEST RENTAL GROWTH PROSPECTS

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th Y

-o-Y

Ren

tal

rate

(U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rents -South Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen

Forecast Forecast


56


7. CAPITAL MARKET


57

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%P

ert

h

Ha

noi

Bri

sba

ne

To

kyo

Au

ckla

nd

Ho C

hi M

inh

Cit

y

Ba

ng

kok

Melb

ou

rne

Seou

l

Syd

ney

Mu

mb

ai

Ku

ala

Lu

mp

ur

Ta

ipei

Beij

ing

Sh

an

gh

ai

New

Delh

i

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Ba

ng

alo

re

Sin

ga

po

re

Sh

en

zh

en

Hon

g K

on

g

Off

ice Y

ield

Sp

rea

d

Ten Year High

2017F

Ten Year Low

Yield spread narrowed to

100 bps or below

Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.

YIELD SPREAD CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS O F F I C E Y I E L D V S 1 0 -Y E A R G O V E R N M E N T B O N D Y I E L D


58

A YEAR OF M&A

Source: RCA.

International Centre KEPPEL LAND LTD.

►►VINACAPITAL

@ US$ 13.8 MIL.

OFFICE

Hanoi


59

TOP 10 REAL ESTATE STORIES

1. Growing Hospitality Market 2. Issuance of 06/2016/NHNN Circular 3. The end of 30.000 billion VND package 4. Public announcement of mortgaged projects 5. Name projects that are unqualified for Fire Safety 6. Active M&A market 7. Trend of “green” in buildings development 8. The growth of affordable segment 9. Renovation of old apartments 10. The entrance of non-real estate players


60



61

City Venue Date

Singapore Arts House January 24

Seoul, South Korea Four Seasons February 14

Sydney, Australia Sydney Conservatorium of Music February 22

Brisbane, Australia To be announced March 7

Melbourne, Australia Park Hyatt Melbourne March 9

Auckland, New Zealand To be announced March 14

Hong Kong To be announced April 5

New Delhi, India To be announced April 19

Adelaide, Australia To be announced May 9

Perth, Australia To be announced May 11

Tokyo To be announced June 2

2017 ROADSHOW S A V E T H E D AT E

ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL REPORT

JANUARY 24

VIETNAM NATIONAL REPORT

MID-FEBRUARY


62

This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein.

DISCLAIMERS AND WAIVERS

Thank You


VIETNAM Vietnam Market Outlook … · Source: ; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: ; CBRE Vietnam,...

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Transcript of VIETNAM Vietnam Market Outlook … · Source: ; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: ; CBRE Vietnam,...